ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

I joined Storm2k in late 2020, and so far after seeing what is typically posted on this forum (especially during a hurricane that could pose a major threat), I have no regrets. Very informative, respectful, and relevant, unlike some other social media platforms.

[cane5]

The fact that this is a Hurricane in early July with South Florida in the cone almost gives no comparable trends to go by including land effects etc. From the standpoint of a Hurricane buff it is fascinating but from the stand point of possibly being effected without historical data concerns me.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking a little better on IR Now

[CronkPSU]

NHC 11:00 pM discussion:

seems very odd for them to mention that possibility since the cone is well outside of that area (or even missing Cuba completely to the West)

Cone is well outside of what area? It’s goes over southern Haiti and the DR that’s why they issued Hurricane warnings. That’s also why they were being so conservative with intensity estimates. Seems like they’re having 2nd thoughts now on potential intensity.

i interpreted threading the needle as missing ALL THREE COMPLETELY and meaning missing Cuba to the East and Haiti to the west...threading that needle

as someone else pointed out, they really meant just threading the needle between Haiti and Jamaica and then going over the flatter area of Cuba

[CronkPSU]

The fact that this is a Hurricane in early July with South Florida in the cone almost gives no comparable trends to go by including land effects etc. From the standpoint of a Hurricane buff it is fascinating but from the stand point of possibly being effected without historical data concerns me.

probably a good time to remind people to click on the orange donate button and donate (like I did earlier tonight)

[AtlanticWind]

I was waiting for a discussion that mentioned the possibility of this strengthening like the HWRF
has been showing. It seemed they like they were discounting a stronger system, though I do think
that a weaker Elsa is more likely due to land interactions.
But this confirms that conditions are favorable if Elsa can avoid land untl crossing Cuba later on.

[cane5]

So at the 11pm advisory it seems that the closest point to South Fla is Key West but we are still in the cone which shows models are still showing some favor to Elsa making a turn more to the east so tommorrow might be the critical day to see where we stand.

[SconnieCane]

Looking a little better on IR Now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Going back to yesterday as a TS, the thing that has struck me about Elsa it that it has always had a really solid outflow pattern for an allegedly "sheared" system, despite its occasional difficulties with maintaining a stacked, coherent core due to its speed.

[skyline385]

0Z GFS run looking like the weakest one so far

[eastcoastFL]

seems very odd for them to mention that possibility since the cone is well outside of that area (or even missing Cuba completely to the West)

Cone is well outside of what area? It’s goes over southern Haiti and the DR that’s why they issued Hurricane warnings. That’s also why they were being so conservative with intensity estimates. Seems like they’re having 2nd thoughts now on potential intensity.

i interpreted threading the needle as missing ALL THREE COMPLETELY and meaning missing Cuba to the East and Haiti to the west...threading that needle

as someone else pointed out, they really meant just threading the needle between Haiti and Jamaica and then going over the flatter area of Cuba

Ahhhh, gotcha. Wouldn’t that be terrible if it did miss them all and then slipped through the Yucatán channel before heading towards Fl. I’m glad that’s pretty much off the table.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking a little better on IR Now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Going back to yesterday as a TS, the thing that has struck me about Elsa it that it has always had a really solid outflow pattern for an allegedly "sheared" system, despite its occasional difficulties with maintaining a stacked, coherent core due to its speed.

I’ve noticed that as well. It’s always has a good structural presentation. It was looking pretty good last night but I never expected to wake up to a hurricane.

[eastcoastFL]

So at the 11pm advisory it seems that the closest point to South Fla is Key West but we are still in the cone which shows models are still showing some favor to Elsa making a turn more to the east so tommorrow might be the critical day to see where we stand.

I’ve been thinking if the storm is NE heavy like they tend to be when it makes the turn even the East coast of fl being on the edge or out of the cone could take on some serious rain even if the storm is along the west coast. Probably even more so if it’s slightly weaker and less compact. Hopefully it’s not going to slow when it turns north.

[Sciencerocks]

[eastcoastFL]

Pressure dropping and wind speed going up at buoy out ahead of Elsa



https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42059

[cane5]

We have to know where the high pressure ridge weakens and what if any are the trough influences. I think that is why the NHC has South Florida in the cone. Most July storms are further west and move into the gulf it’s why we find the picture puzzling in the first place. Because of the speed it simply might even outweigh predictable patterns.

[AutoPenalti]

Satellite degraded so much that I can’t see any cyclonic turning.

[Shell Mound]

Looks ragged on IR, but it HWRF did showcase this.

Not exactly:



Nevertheless, yesterday’s 00Z HWRF was showing a MSLP of 1000 mb by early Saturday, yet ended up five mb too high.

[cane5]

Seems like there is a pretty big traugh digging in just above Florida and latest satellite images show a northward slant possibly to hit the Dominican.If that happens who knows what will emerge but at least from what I see a due north direction might be temporary again that is why the cone still has So Fla in the cone. The story is interesting and the plot continues. Keep the popcorn poppin.

[otowntiger]

Looking a little better on IR Now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Not really. Still looking pretty ragged in my opinion. It is going too fast to develop into much of anything.

[AveryTheComrade]

CB fading while trying to wrap around, GFS much weaker and HWRF now taking it into Haiti. Not looking great for Elsa as of now, but I really need to see what's going on with it tomorrow before making any further judgements.