ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1411188334702084101




The 00Z HWRF shows Elsa deepening to 991 mb within the next hour, with a CDO forming directly over the LLC. Without an ULL to the W, this is doubtful.

[cane5]

Talk about a shredder if Elsa runs into Haiti !!!

[eastcoastFL]

Looks ragged on IR, but it HWRF did showcase this.

Not exactly:
https://i.postimg.cc/t4F2K1fh/Elsa2021-1.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/gkCgtyMz/Elsa2021-3.png

Nevertheless, yesterday’s 00Z HWRF was showing a MSLP of 1000 mb by early Saturday, yet ended up five mb too high.

It forecasted a weakening overnight and then a starting to wrap up again in the morning.

[Category5Kaiju]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

There's some deep layer shear to the NE, but overall the shear in front of Elsa looks not bad, deep layer and mid level wise.

[StPeteMike]

I’m going to go against the HMON and HWRF and say Elsa misses Haiti to the south and west. Until the storm slows down and can stack up and strengthen, which will likely be late today into early Sunday, the LLC is going to outpace the MLC and the storm isn’t going to gain the latitude enough where it swipes the southern end of the country. I may be wrong, but I feel like I have a little below the confidence some of the models currently have.

[cane5]

For as fast as shes going she has some nice outflow but can she really hold together at this pace. Quite a little girl coming off of Africa in July but she needs to stay away from these land masses (mines).

[Jr0d]

Elsa looked like it has going almost NW for a bit, however the couple of frames look like it has wobbled west.

Generally wobbles don't mean much for the future track, but given how fast the storm is moving a wobble could be the difference between getting shredded or intensifying over hot water. As most of us expected it has struggled a bit tonight, but I expect it to re-intensify by sunrise.....it is probably not a hurricane at the moment.

[AveryTheComrade]

Wait the LLC is mostly under that CB to the NW isn't it? Unless I'm seeing things? That's probably not a good sign for avoiding Hispaniola or it getting vertically aligned.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Canadian_wx/status/1411207245313064960



 https://twitter.com/Canadian_wx/status/1411207254628515841



 https://twitter.com/PRClimate/status/1411205427199623168



Given the lack of an ULL to its W, Elsa will struggle to redevelop its western outflow-channel. The 00Z HWRF shows deepening to 991 mb within the hour and also depicts a vertically stacked, rapidly reorganising Elsa. Based on current trends for once the HWRF may be too bullish, given the northwesterly shear imparted by the TUTT over the central North Atlantic, along with the ongoing rapid forward translation of the system, to not mention the recent decoupling of the LLC and MLC. Interestingly, there is decent agreement among the GFS, CMC, EC, and HWRF in regard to a landfall on Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, despite variations in the projected intensity. The weaker solutions are roughly in the same position as the stronger at that time. Based on shortwave IR I see two centres: one near 15.8°N 67.7°W and another (the old LLC) near 15°N 67.5°W. Based on current organisation I think Elsa has weakened to a moderate or strong TS.

[cane5]

A tiny portion of Haiti is in the cone. In looking at latest satellite shots she’s moving a bit due north of that forecast.

[cane5]

sheesh that is just one fast moving lady. Looks like she’s angry about something. lol

[cane5]

Nice test to show how deep the high pressure ridge. Even with a slight due north look she’s going to out run maybe even not hitting Haiti at all. Real time on this storm is a blink of an eye and next one up.

[cane5]

2am in and the cone is keeping South Fla in the picture and the keys even more in the picture. But so is Tampa.

[AveryTheComrade]

2am in and the cone is keeping South Fla in the picture and the keys even more in the picture. But so is Tampa.

Cones aren't changed in intermediate advisories

[ConvergenceZone]

https://i.postimg.cc/qqqx7wL3/Elsa2021-6.png
https://i.postimg.cc/X7ZgS2XM/Elsa2021-7.jpg

Given the lack of an ULL to its W, Elsa will struggle to redevelop its western outflow-channel. The 00Z HWRF shows deepening to 991 mb within the hour and also depicts a vertically stacked, rapidly reorganising Elsa. Based on current trends for once the HWRF may be too bullish, given the northwesterly shear imparted by the TUTT over the central North Atlantic, along with the ongoing rapid forward translation of the system, to not mention the recent decoupling of the LLC and MLC. Interestingly, there is decent agreement among the GFS, CMC, EC, and HWRF in regard to a landfall on Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, despite variations in the projected intensity. The weaker solutions are roughly in the same position as the stronger at that time. Based on shortwave IR I see two centres: one near 15.8°N 67.7°W and another (the old LLC) near 15°N 67.5°W. Based on current organisation I think Elsa has weakened to a moderate or strong TS.

Meteorologist Wxman did say that he thought it was a tropical storm and not a hurricane, so he very well could have been right....

[Shell Mound]

https://i.postimg.cc/qqqx7wL3/Elsa2021-6.png
https://i.postimg.cc/X7ZgS2XM/Elsa2021-7.jpg

Given the lack of an ULL to its W, Elsa will struggle to redevelop its western outflow-channel. The 00Z HWRF shows deepening to 991 mb within the hour and also depicts a vertically stacked, rapidly reorganising Elsa. Based on current trends for once the HWRF may be too bullish, given the northwesterly shear imparted by the TUTT over the central North Atlantic, along with the ongoing rapid forward translation of the system, to not mention the recent decoupling of the LLC and MLC. Interestingly, there is decent agreement among the GFS, CMC, EC, and HWRF in regard to a landfall on Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, despite variations in the projected intensity. The weaker solutions are roughly in the same position as the stronger at that time. Based on shortwave IR I see two centres: one near 15.8°N 67.7°W and another (the old LLC) near 15°N 67.5°W. Based on current organisation I think Elsa has weakened to a moderate or strong TS.

Meteorologist Wxman did say that he thought it was a tropical storm and not a hurricane, so he very well could have been right....

 https://twitter.com/eggwardjwx/status/1411213174645288965

[Hurrilurker]

Don't know about the intensity, but it sure looks like it's going to dump a ton of rain over a huge chunk of the east coast.

[Jr0d]

We have a tower firing over the center now....this maybe the start of the morning intensification the HWRF was hinting at....or it could be a temporary byrst of activity.

I'll be up until at least the 5am advisory.

[Shell Mound]

We have a tower firing over the center now....this maybe the start of the morning intensification the HWRF was hinting at....or it could be a temporary byrst of activity.

I'll be up until at least the 5am advisory.

Elsa is beginning to bypass the TUTT axis, so outflow is slowly expanding westward. As this occurs, both mid-level shear and associated dry-air intrusion are evidently diminishing, as convective bands redeveloping west of the main convective mass suggest. The most worrisome sign is that the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF are coming into better agreement that conditions over the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico may be conducive to reorganisation post Cuba, given that Elsa will then be situated in a col region between a retrograding cutoff low to its west and a TUTT to its east, thereby providing decent ventilation for possible dual outflow channels over abnormally warm waters and in an environment with ample moisture. At this point the main factor that could prevent a stronger system in South-Central Florida is the likelihood of substantial interaction with the mountains of eastern Cuba and, to a lesser extent, the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti. Otherwise, upcoming conditions seem to favour Elsa regaining hurricane status, possibly as soon as later today.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1410991508233326592

To this I might add 1955: Elsa, after all, being the first hurricane to impact Barbados since Hurricane Janet sixty-five years earlier. 1955 was also very active.