ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AveryTheComrade]

Elsa still seems very decoupled, there's clearly some circulation here but evidently it isn't the center since convection isn't following it. Not sure what's going on.

[Sciencerocks]

[Shell Mound]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9955/9OvoeH.gif

Could the LLC reform closer to the convection (MLC), or are the low-level trades too strong for such an outcome? Outflow is improving on the western side.
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411154801602306054



 https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1411156619786952704



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1411157177914511362



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411157564675575808



 https://twitter.com/JackKipnis19/status/1411157279211200517

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Elsa still seems very decoupled, there's clearly some circulation here but evidently it isn't the center since convection isn't following it. Not sure what's going on.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/619419338151034911/860783659770445844/unknown.png

From what I can tell, I believe that convection is associated with the potent mid-level center, as it matches up with long-range radar reflectivity returns from Puerto Rico. I think the naked circulation to the WNW is the weakening low-level center, which is being ejected in that direction after potentially decoupling with the MLC. Either the convection manages to catch it, or it slowly winds down and is absorbed by the new dominant circulation to the SE. Also, should be noted that I could be way off with this line of thinking, and the next 12 hours prior to recon show the need for me to eat a shoe.

Going to need to watch to see if this convection sustains and begins to rotate, allowing the MLC to burrow to the surface and create a new, vertically stacked center of circulation. If so, then I think more intense model solutions could come into play as Elsa approaches the SW edge of Hispaniola and the Jamaica Channel.

[Shell Mound]

Elsa still seems very decoupled, there's clearly some circulation here but evidently it isn't the center since convection isn't following it. Not sure what's going on.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/619419338151034911/860783659770445844/unknown.png

From what I can tell, I believe that convection is associated with the potent mid-level center, as it matches up with long-range radar reflectivity returns from Puerto Rico. I think the naked circulation to the WNW is the weakening low-level center, which is being ejected in that direction after potentially decoupling with the MLC. Either the convection manages to catch it, or it slowly winds down and is absorbed by the new dominant circulation to the SE. Also, should be noted that I could be way off with this line of thinking, and the next 12 hours prior to recon show the need for me to eat a shoe.

Going to need to watch to see if this convection sustains and begins to rotate, allowing the MLC to burrow to the surface and create a new, vertically stacked center of circulation. If so, then I think more intense model solutions could come into play as Elsa approaches the SW edge of Hispaniola and the Jamaica Channel.

[Jr0d]

Elsa is looking better this past hour in my opinion...but has a long way to go for the 12Z HWRF to verify in less than four hours....

It might be just an illusion and my confirmation bias(believing the HWRF) is clouding my judgement...less than an hour 7ntil the next NHC discussion. I'll be up watching every new satellite image until then.

[Jr0d]

Recon is en route from Homestead. Unfortunately I will be asleep when they get to Elsa.

There is no doubt in my mind Elsa has weakened to a storm....but the NHC will not downgrade until.recon verifies this.

If the current trend continues( deep convection at the core, expanding outflow, ect ..) it will be a hurricane again by the time recon gets there.

Kind of pointless to downgrade based off scanty evidence when the potential to restrengthen quickly is there.

[Shell Mound]

Elsa still seems very decoupled, there's clearly some circulation here but evidently it isn't the center since convection isn't following it. Not sure what's going on.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/619419338151034911/860783659770445844/unknown.png

From what I can tell, I believe that convection is associated with the potent mid-level center, as it matches up with long-range radar reflectivity returns from Puerto Rico. I think the naked circulation to the WNW is the weakening low-level center, which is being ejected in that direction after potentially decoupling with the MLC. Either the convection manages to catch it, or it slowly winds down and is absorbed by the new dominant circulation to the SE. Also, should be noted that I could be way off with this line of thinking, and the next 12 hours prior to recon show the need for me to eat a shoe.

Going to need to watch to see if this convection sustains and begins to rotate, allowing the MLC to burrow to the surface and create a new, vertically stacked center of circulation. If so, then I think more intense model solutions could come into play as Elsa approaches the SW edge of Hispaniola and the Jamaica Channel.

Based on continuing trends, I think a reformation of the centre to the southeast is becoming increasingly plausible. Future packages may adjust MSW upward.

[kevin]

From what I can tell, I believe that convection is associated with the potent mid-level center, as it matches up with long-range radar reflectivity returns from Puerto Rico. I think the naked circulation to the WNW is the weakening low-level center, which is being ejected in that direction after potentially decoupling with the MLC. Either the convection manages to catch it, or it slowly winds down and is absorbed by the new dominant circulation to the SE. Also, should be noted that I could be way off with this line of thinking, and the next 12 hours prior to recon show the need for me to eat a shoe.

Going to need to watch to see if this convection sustains and begins to rotate, allowing the MLC to burrow to the surface and create a new, vertically stacked center of circulation. If so, then I think more intense model solutions could come into play as Elsa approaches the SW edge of Hispaniola and the Jamaica Channel.

https://i.postimg.cc/7YHvPff4/Elsa2021-7.png

https://i.postimg.cc/0yS6Ckqz/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-03-kl-11-16-56.png
Based on continuing trends, I think a reformation of the centre to the southeast is becoming increasingly plausible. Future packages may adjust MSW upward.

This might be worrisome in terms of long-term intensity right as a centre reformation to the south could help Elsa to prevent land interaction with Hispaniola. Or is the east component of the centre reformation enough to compensate for the southern shift?

[AlphaToOmega]

The big question is the path of Hurricane Elsa. If Elsa dodges the islands, it can intensify. If Elsa interacts with the islands, it will weaken. The NHC acknowledges this in its forecast:

Some mid-level wind shear associated with Elsa's fast forward speed
appears to be affecting the hurricane now. However, since the
cyclone is expected to slow down and move beneath an upper-level
anticyclone later this weekend, it seems likely that the vortex will
become better aligned in the vertical. The big question is will
Elsa be interacting with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and
Cuba when the environmental winds become conducive for
strengthening. If the cyclone manages to stay south of those
islands, Elsa could have an opportunity to restrengthen. Conversely,
if the storm tracks directly over the islands, weakening would very
likely occur. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows
little change in strength through tonight, followed by slow
weakening on Sunday and early Monday. Slight restrengthening is
forecast when Elsa moves north of Cuba and across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. This forecast is a little lower than the previous one in
the short term, but is largely unchanged at the longer forecast
times.

[aspen]

I wonder what kind of storm I’ll wake up to tomorrow morning. A recovering hurricane? Decaying slop? Or something like what we’re seeing now?

Decaying slop it is. Seems like the HWRF has finally busted in its usually very accurate short-term forecast.

[xironman]

Looks seriously decoupled. Euro win?

[HurricaneFrances04]

The center looks completely exposed this morning. Hard to believe the HWRF will come close to verifying.

[Shell Mound]

Looks seriously decoupled. Euro win?

The ECMWF, which failed to show Elsa as a hurricane and continues to incorrectly initialise the system, just caved to the GFS et al. and now shows a stronger Elsa tracking into the west coast of peninsular FL. So I wouldn’t call the current setup a “win” for the ECMWF. As for the old LLC, it seems likely to dissipate and reform closer to the convection, given that mid-level shear is evidently decreasing, albeit gradually. Latest imagery indicates that hot towers are continuing to proliferate well to the southeast of the old, exposed LLC. If the centre reforms, the HWRF could still end up the winner in terms of intensity, given a more southerly LLC with more time over water.

[Michele B]

I have to say without storm2k and the amazing contributions Hurricane season would be far less predictable. Hard to give thoughts when you see the depth and understanding posters have here measures up to the best of the stock boards I go to.

I am a native of Miami 65 years and there were the famous 3 Hurricanes Donna, Betsy and Cleo all in a row anyone remember those days ?

Yup!

Been there,’seen those!

See my sig line.

[Michele B]

If you live in South Florida I have been watching the weather guy on Channel 6 at 5pm…he is really on the ball when it comes to big storm systems , very impressed.

What’s the call letters?

I can probably find him on their web site.

We used to have a guy like that on the west coast. In fact, he was the FIRST met to make the call that Charley WASNT going to Tampa when he saw that jog to the east. That prompted us to hurry our boarding up.

[jlauderdal]

Looks seriously decoupled. Euro win?

The euro was a bust for this system early on, now if you want to start over from today then that's a different discussion

[Kat5]

Wouldn’t be surprised if it opens up to a wave by tomorrow. Starting to remind me of Ericka.

[jlauderdal]

If you live in South Florida I have been watching the weather guy on Channel 6 at 5pm…he is really on the ball when it comes to big storm systems , very impressed.

What’s the call letters?

I can probably find him on their web site.

We used to have a guy like that on the west coast. In fact, he was the FIRST met to make the call that Charley WASNT going to Tampa when he saw that jog to the east. That prompted us to hurry our boarding up.

John Morales WTVJ Miami

He is excellent with hurricane forecasting, intensity and track and not afraid to call it before NHC does especially when sounding the all-clear

[jlauderdal]

Wouldn’t be surprised if it opens up to a wave by tomorrow. Starting to remind me of Ericka.

But the HWRF has a monster approaching Cuba or at least it did...the HWRF doing the HWRF thing as usual