ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While I wouldn't say "all clear", I do think the chances of a significant hurricane like the HWRF had been showing is no longer plausible.

I like how you say plausible indicating a chance still instead of straight up saying it’s no longer possible that it becomes a major. I agree btw.

After last year, I'll never say anything is impossible ever again.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like a high-helicity, high rain-rate tower fired off with tons of lightning.
Sitting in about 3000 to 4000 CAPE

Looks like Elsa will be a hurricane again today.

[eastcoastFL]

While I wouldn't say "all clear", I do think the chances of a significant hurricane like the HWRF had been showing is no longer plausible.

The HWRF seems like it didn’t consider the forward speed as such an inhibiting factor. It’s been nailing the track since genesis and I think it just saw favorable conditions and the storm missing land so it continued to show intensification. Now it seems to have calmed down on that and shows a mild cat 1 or strong TS before landfall in Cuba. I think I’ll continue to lean towards it for track with this storm and see where it goes.

[Kohlecane]

While I wouldn't say "all clear", I do think the chances of a significant hurricane like the HWRF had been showing is no longer plausible.

I like how you say plausible indicating a chance still instead of straight up saying it’s no longer possible that it becomes a major. I agree btw.

After last year, I'll never say anything is impossible ever again.

Agree 100% sheesh even after Danny last week. I would say it even more so!

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like a high-helicity, high rain-rate tower fired off with tons of lightning.
Sitting in about 3000 to 4000 CAPE

Looks like Elsa will be a hurricane again today.

It hasn’t been downgraded yet has it?

[jlauderdal]

I’m really not seeing a major hurricane out of this at all. Moving too fast and the phantom mid-level shear could strike at any time. If I’m wrong I’ll eat my shoe

So far my shoe remains uneaten

Ha, predicting it wouldnt be a major is hardly a forecasting coup...your shoe is safe

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[aspen]

In hindsight, I think we were too harsh on Barry for being the ugliest thing to be designated as a hurricane, because Elsa has clearly taken that title.

[SFLcane]

Big bust by the HWRF from yesterday and I am having crow for breakfast this morning.

Is supposed to be so simple, I should had gone with the: when the Euro and GFS are so appart in intensity like they were a couple of days ago is better to go with a blend between the two, and that's exactly what they have come to.

Its ok, hwrf intensity has tricked many people over the years.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

A tropical storm will leave you in the dark my friend. Gotta keep watching

[OuterBanker]

Of note.
TPC went from td at 5am after inland.
Now back to ts inland (after FL landfall),

[Ian2401]

In hindsight, I think we were too harsh on Barry for being the ugliest thing to be designated as a hurricane, because Elsa has clearly taken that title.

barry still holds that crown...that thing was an eye sore

[eastcoastFL]

It’s going to be a close call on the Hispaniola coast lines

[jlauderdal]

While I wouldn't say "all clear", I do think the chances of a significant hurricane like the HWRF had been showing is no longer plausible.

The HWRF seems like it didn’t consider the forward speed as such an inhibiting factor. It’s been nailing the track since genesis and I think it just saw favorable conditions and the storm missing land so it continued to show intensification. Now it seems to have calmed down on that and shows a mild cat 1 or strong TS before landfall in Cuba. I think I’ll continue to lean towards it for track with this storm and see where it goes.

The hwrf has consistently intensified storms to a degree that is beyond reality...we have a weakening system with land interaction dead ahead.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like a high-helicity, high rain-rate tower fired off with tons of lightning.
Sitting in about 3000 to 4000 CAPE

Looks like Elsa will be a hurricane again today.

It hasn’t been downgraded yet has it?

It will be unless it rapidly re-organizes before the next advisory. Hmmm

[AlphaToOmega]

The only thing this storm needs to do to intensify again is to slow down.

[wx98]

I’m really not seeing a major hurricane out of this at all. Moving too fast and the phantom mid-level shear could strike at any time. If I’m wrong I’ll eat my shoe

So far my shoe remains uneaten

Ha, predicting it wouldnt be a major is hardly a forecasting coup...your shoe is safe

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

To be fair I posted that yesterday in the middle of a bunch of posts of people calling for RI to Cat 3 or 4.

[eastcoastFL]

Of note.
TPC went from td at 5am after inland.
Now back to ts inland (after FL landfall),

We’ve seen it enough where a storm enters S.Fl and slowly strengthens over the swampland and lake O. Not much for inhibiting factors in this state. If Elsa ends up being a slow moving TS the entire state could be in for some serious rain. But less than 2 days out we really have no better idea than 2 days ago…so there’s that.

[NDG]

Saved zoomed in loop.

[eastcoastFL]

Saved zoomed in loop.

https://i.imgur.com/KejTp68.gif

Great shot. I couldn’t find the LLC yet this morning but that’s clear as can be. A little naked swirl for a minute

[InfernoFlameCat]

She is going to thread the needle.

[eastcoastFL]

She is going to thread the needle.

She’s going to need to turn more to the west and fast to miss the tip of Hispaniola. The LLC looks to be racing straight for it.