ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cane5]

like me and a few others until it makes that turn and enters the straits and possible ridge weakening there is enough time for big changes. It’s a problem with the cone NHC in my opinion should not put one out for every advisory, simply overkill and confusing to many.

[StPeteMike]

Does anyone have a take on the timing of the trough moving in to weaken the ridge?

I think the NHC has late Sunday. Even still, the few miles south adds only more time for the storm to stay over water.

[eastcoastFL]

[NDG]

One thing that is obvious is that Elsa seems to have slowed down significantly.

Yep, in the past 5 hours I calculated it to be around 17 mph, but a cyclonic loop to realign the itself closer to the MLC could be real reason why for the slow down at this time.

[StPeteMike]

Coming into view of Gitmo's radar too.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate ... =CMaxZH240

It might get disrupted by Jamaica given the current track.

Don’t want to reference Dennis again… but Dennis strengthened while passing in a very similar location as Elsa will be passing.

[GCANE]

She is tapping into the EPAC.
High TPW air flowing across Panama and Columbia.

[eastcoastFL]

like me and a few others until it makes that turn and enters the straits and possible ridge weakening there is enough time for big changes. It’s a problem with the cone NHC in my opinion should not put one out for every advisory, simply overkill and confusing to many.

I think they only update the track during the full advisory’s but I’m not 100% sure.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Alex Boreham thinks this might be a CCC.

[eastcoastFL]

She is tapping into the EPAC.
High TPW air flowing across Panama and Columbia.

https://i.imgur.com/Wjw0qsh.png

What does that mean for her? Seems kinda wild that a disorganized storm like her could do that

[eastcoastFL]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2021 Time : 022021 UTC
Lat : 18:09:41 N Lon : 75:12:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.3mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.2

Center Temp : -71.0C Cloud Region Temp : -59.1C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO


Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

[aspen]

Umm…that center is even weaker this pass. Not even below 1010 mbar. What on Earth is going on? Has it reformed to the north and this is just the dying LLC?

[DestinHurricane]

Umm…that center is even weaker this pass. Not even below 1010 mbar. What on Earth is going on? Has it reformed to the north and this is just the dying LLC?

That's not the center

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1411516317669236738

[GCANE]

She is tapping into the EPAC.
High TPW air flowing across Panama and Columbia.

https://i.imgur.com/Wjw0qsh.png

What does that mean for her? Seems kinda wild that a disorganized storm like her could do that

High TPW air is a measure of how much total precipitable water is in the air.
The more there is, the more fuel Elsa has to work with.
It is pretty much the fuel that drives the heat engine.

[Aric Dunn]

that is not the center. lol just throwing it out there ..

[aspen]

Umm…that center is even weaker this pass. Not even below 1010 mbar. What on Earth is going on? Has it reformed to the north and this is just the dying LLC?

That's not the center

Then where is it? Under the -90C tower?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hmm... the newest advisory has the LLC nearly 45 northwest of where the VDM was fixed.

Code: Select all

11:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3
Location: 17.9°N 75.3°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph


[CyclonicFury]

This is the same plane that had trouble finding the center yesterday when Elsa was a hurricane. Makes me wonder if something is off with this plane. The NHC did not even fix the center at the VDM location.

[GCANE]

Looks like she is going straight west from the last fix.
Warm core is tugging on her hard.

[cane5]

If this thing defies the odds of the NHC forecast winds and if the cone does not change Southeast Florida now would get the dirty side of Elsa and could get some heavier impacts than you would want. like I have said this is a fluke storm in early July threatening Florida we do not have historical comparisons.