ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cane5
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2501 Postby cane5 » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:38 pm

like me and a few others until it makes that turn and enters the straits and possible ridge weakening there is enough time for big changes. It’s a problem with the cone NHC in my opinion should not put one out for every advisory, simply overkill and confusing to many.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2502 Postby StPeteMike » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:39 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Does anyone have a take on the timing of the trough moving in to weaken the ridge?

I think the NHC has late Sunday. Even still, the few miles south adds only more time for the storm to stay over water.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2503 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:41 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2504 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:42 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:One thing that is obvious is that Elsa seems to have slowed down significantly.


Yep, in the past 5 hours I calculated it to be around 17 mph, but a cyclonic loop to realign the itself closer to the MLC could be real reason why for the slow down at this time.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2505 Postby StPeteMike » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:42 pm

Jr0d wrote:Coming into view of Gitmo's radar too.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate ... =CMaxZH240

It might get disrupted by Jamaica given the current track.

Don’t want to reference Dennis again… but Dennis strengthened while passing in a very similar location as Elsa will be passing.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2506 Postby GCANE » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:42 pm

She is tapping into the EPAC.
High TPW air flowing across Panama and Columbia.

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2507 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:45 pm

cane5 wrote:like me and a few others until it makes that turn and enters the straits and possible ridge weakening there is enough time for big changes. It’s a problem with the cone NHC in my opinion should not put one out for every advisory, simply overkill and confusing to many.


I think they only update the track during the full advisory’s but I’m not 100% sure.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2508 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:45 pm

Alex Boreham thinks this might be a CCC.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2509 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:46 pm

GCANE wrote:She is tapping into the EPAC.
High TPW air flowing across Panama and Columbia.

https://i.imgur.com/Wjw0qsh.png


What does that mean for her? Seems kinda wild that a disorganized storm like her could do that
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2510 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:49 pm

Image



----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2021 Time : 022021 UTC
Lat : 18:09:41 N Lon : 75:12:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.3mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.2

Center Temp : -71.0C Cloud Region Temp : -59.1C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO


Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2511 Postby aspen » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:49 pm

Umm…that center is even weaker this pass. Not even below 1010 mbar. What on Earth is going on? Has it reformed to the north and this is just the dying LLC?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2512 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:50 pm

aspen wrote:Umm…that center is even weaker this pass. Not even below 1010 mbar. What on Earth is going on? Has it reformed to the north and this is just the dying LLC?

That's not the center
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2513 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:50 pm

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2514 Postby GCANE » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:50 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
GCANE wrote:She is tapping into the EPAC.
High TPW air flowing across Panama and Columbia.

https://i.imgur.com/Wjw0qsh.png


What does that mean for her? Seems kinda wild that a disorganized storm like her could do that


High TPW air is a measure of how much total precipitable water is in the air.
The more there is, the more fuel Elsa has to work with.
It is pretty much the fuel that drives the heat engine.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2515 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:51 pm

that is not the center. lol just throwing it out there ..
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2516 Postby aspen » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:51 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
aspen wrote:Umm…that center is even weaker this pass. Not even below 1010 mbar. What on Earth is going on? Has it reformed to the north and this is just the dying LLC?

That's not the center

Then where is it? Under the -90C tower?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2517 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:53 pm

Hmm... the newest advisory has the LLC nearly 45 northwest of where the VDM was fixed.

Code: Select all

11:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 3
Location: 17.9°N 75.3°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2518 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:54 pm

This is the same plane that had trouble finding the center yesterday when Elsa was a hurricane. Makes me wonder if something is off with this plane. The NHC did not even fix the center at the VDM location.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2519 Postby GCANE » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:54 pm

Looks like she is going straight west from the last fix.
Warm core is tugging on her hard.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2520 Postby cane5 » Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:54 pm

If this thing defies the odds of the NHC forecast winds and if the cone does not change Southeast Florida now would get the dirty side of Elsa and could get some heavier impacts than you would want. like I have said this is a fluke storm in early July threatening Florida we do not have historical comparisons.
Last edited by cane5 on Sat Jul 03, 2021 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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