ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4301 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:42 pm

rigbyrigz wrote:A little bit of a mea culpa... as a Math major, I'm noticing an error that influenced much of my earlier thinking. Seems the various sites - Accuweather,WeatherNET,TWC... that showed hourly weather (including sustained and gusts) were a bit "off" for places like Keaton Beach and Steinhatchee (Big Bend Taylor County Coastal spots)...

...2-3 of them were all showing (AT TONIGHT) midnight: conditions= 50 or sustained, with gusts to 70 or more.... then same well into the night, towards 5AM.

But that's 3 hours from now, and it's ONLY waddling along at 10-14 mph? And the winds and dirty stuff are not 200 miles North/NE of center.

So this DEVELOPING scenario (if accurate) must be 20 hours off. Which means there was more time (to prep or worry) than I thought. Sorry about that, anyway.


Yes as tolakram alluded to, the track is not linear. The displacement between the LLC and MLC, along with degradation from dry air intrusion, created this sort of erratic/tugging effect on the true center (or as others would call it, wobbles).

In addition, as others were discussing last night, we have a sharp gradient due to the low/mid level flow. You can see high pressure is located just to the east of Florida:
Image

This creates almost like a wind tunnel effect, mostly observed at the mid-levels over the entire Florida peninsula, with some of these winds translating to the surface:
Image

It's why there will be a wider swath of gusts then we would typically see with such a system.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4302 Postby Wakeknight » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:43 pm

StormPyrate wrote:anyone in Sarasota how is it there?


I am in Nokomis, it’s been steady rain here since 3. Not much for wind.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4303 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:44 pm

70-75kts again east of the center with 50kt SFMR. Not far east of those 50kt SFMR winds, coastal obs are blowing from the east at 15-20 kts. Strong winds at FL are from the south. I would wager that the 50kt SFMR wind may be closer to the wind gusts near the surface than sustained wind, with only 1002 mb pressure. This morning, the plane found around 50 kt SFMR wind near Key West when it was reporting sustained 28 kts gusting 45 kts.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4304 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:46 pm

Yep, Stewart just upgraded it to a hurricane. He's known to be very quick to upgrade, which has gotten him into a bit of trouble at times.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4305 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:46 pm

Update on buoy 42013:

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4306 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:47 pm

Image
Larger: https://i.imgur.com/K7uMSPA.gif

Air Force Recon through 8:23pm EDT. Vortex icon at 8:02pm EDT. (sonde was released at 8:00pm EDT from that location)

NHC track at 5pm EDT.

Radar at 8pm EDT. (NEXRAD - CONUS/Canada Base Reflectivity from RealEarth)
Satellite at 8pm EDT. (CONUS B13: IR - "Clean" Longwave Color)
RealEarth data: https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/

Individual images in animation:

Radar: https://i.imgur.com/eWYnYYl.png
Satellite: https://i.imgur.com/Ez9kw0c.png
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4307 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:47 pm

Looks like NE quad is next so this will be the real one.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4308 Postby MetroMike » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:48 pm

Finally getting a little spicy hot sauce in Pinellas County, rain going sideways
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4309 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:49 pm

Wow it looks ragged now. It could pulse back up though, this is dmin. One pulse near the center would probably be all it needs to definitively achieve Uglycane status
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4310 Postby drewschmaltz » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:50 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:this is dmin


Is it?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4311 Postby psyclone » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:Yep, Stewart just upgraded it to a hurricane. He's known to be very quick to upgrade, which has gotten him into a bit of trouble at times.


What intensity do you think the system is?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4312 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:51 pm

I would be curious as to what evidence there is of surface winds to 74 mph. You cannot convert those FL winds down to the surface with the normal reduction in a storm like this. SFMR certainly doesn't indicate any wind above 50 kts yet. Pressure up a little since this morning. SFMR winds were higher this morning.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4313 Postby artist » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:I would be curious as to what evidence there is of surface winds to 74 mph. You cannot convert those FL winds down to the surface with the normal reduction in a storm like this. SFMR certainly doesn't indicate any wind above 50 kts yet. Pressure up a little since this morning. SFMR winds were higher this morning.

The update came out before recon got in the storm.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4314 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:53 pm

psyclone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Yep, Stewart just upgraded it to a hurricane. He's known to be very quick to upgrade, which has gotten him into a bit of trouble at times.


What intensity do you think the system is?


Looks about 50 kts. Don't know if I'd go as high as 55 kts. Those southerly winds at FL of 40-45 kts (similar SFMR) just west of Sarasota compare to an east wind at 25 kts at Sarasota. That's odd to have them 90 degrees different.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4315 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:
psyclone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Yep, Stewart just upgraded it to a hurricane. He's known to be very quick to upgrade, which has gotten him into a bit of trouble at times.


What intensity do you think the system is?


Looks about 50 kts. Don't know if I'd go as high as 55 kts. Those southerly winds at FL of 40-45 kts (similar SFMR) just west of Sarasota compare to an east wind at 25 kts at Sarasota. That's odd to have them 90 degrees different.

Did you see the buoy reports?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4316 Postby psyclone » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:55 pm

artist wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I would be curious as to what evidence there is of surface winds to 74 mph. You cannot convert those FL winds down to the surface with the normal reduction in a storm like this. SFMR certainly doesn't indicate any wind above 50 kts yet. Pressure up a little since this morning. SFMR winds were higher this morning.

The update came out before recon got in the storm.


Yes. they referenced radar data out of Tampa
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4317 Postby psyclone » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:
psyclone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Yep, Stewart just upgraded it to a hurricane. He's known to be very quick to upgrade, which has gotten him into a bit of trouble at times.


What intensity do you think the system is?


Looks about 50 kts. Don't know if I'd go as high as 55 kts. Those southerly winds at FL of 40-45 kts (similar SFMR) just west of Sarasota compare to an east wind at 25 kts at Sarasota. That's odd to have them 90 degrees different.

Thanks for your answer. I'm usually a spectator but tonight i got tossed in the ring.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4318 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:56 pm

dexterlabio wrote:So...king euro after all? :lol:


King NAM?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4319 Postby Stormybajan » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:57 pm

OOF...that recon is very underwhelming and goes against the Hurricane upgrade..
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#4320 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Jul 06, 2021 7:58 pm

Not very impressive winds on that pass. Not sure if they have sampled that big band around the MLC yet though
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