NW Gulf

[jaguars_22]

What looks interesting is the low down into Mexico on the radar this had a chance to get out over the gulf perhaps? Looks to be moving north towards Texas border

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1412790855132450822




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1412830626038886400

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think it’s associated with a trough so it can’t be classified right now

[lrak]

The low is starting to move westward and that "feeder band" out in the Gulf is starting to drift with it

This is definitely not a typical summer start for Corpus Christi. Where's the "death ridge" from hell?

[jaguars_22]

Since it’s moving west now that should rule out any tropical worries. Although the low on the border of Texas and Mexico looks like it has some good spin as well! Anyone else see this

[wxman22]

The system looks good right now, could "pass" for a depression based on looks only.

[Stormcenter]

Western Gulf looking more and more interesting.

[Nimbus]

They have the watch boxes up, Freeport buoy took a dive down to 29.82 so they probably could declare a TD but they must think it will be inland soon.

[AlphaToOmega]

Surface analysis does not yet show a closed low.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

[Teban54]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

https://i.imgur.com/jMP8OhH.png

Is this the first time that a disturbance first appears in the TWO with a 0%/0% chance?

[InfernoFlameCat]

They put out a 0% outlook?

[jaguars_22]

A few of the meso models show a low developing offshore and tracking right over matagorda bay. Also the 3k NAM is showing this as well…

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

https://i.imgur.com/jMP8OhH.png

Is this the first time that a disturbance first appears in the TWO with a 0%/0% chance?

I've been wondering the same thing. While I've seen many instances of a watched system being reduced to 0%/0%, I don't recall ever seeing any initialized at those percentages. Could be just due to its proximity to the coast.

[underthwx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

https://i.imgur.com/jMP8OhH.png

Is this the first time that a disturbance first appears in the TWO with a 0%/0% chance?

I've been wondering the same thing. While I've seen many instances of a watched system being reduced to 0%/0%, I don't recall ever seeing any initialized at those percentages. Could be just due to its proximity to the coast.

Would not be too surprised to see a short lived depression evolve from this...either way, the wet stuff is falling from the sky in abundance...

[underthwx]

Is this area of low pressure moving westward?

[Cpv17]

The mesoscale models are pumping out some impressive QPF amounts over southeast TX from this feature.

[Stormcenter]

Area south of LA. might be worth keeping an eye on too.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over North Carolina.

1. A broad area of low pressure nearly stationary over south Texas
is continuing to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although
development of this system is not anticipated since it is expected
to remain over land, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be
possible along the Texas Gulf coast over the next few days. See
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch