NW Gulf

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jaguars_22
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Re: NW Gulf

#21 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Jul 07, 2021 11:06 am

What looks interesting is the low down into Mexico on the radar this had a chance to get out over the gulf perhaps? Looks to be moving north towards Texas border
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Re: NW Gulf

#22 Postby jconsor » Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:56 pm

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Re: NW Gulf

#23 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:04 pm

I think it’s associated with a trough so it can’t be classified right now
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Re: NW Gulf

#24 Postby lrak » Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:08 pm

The low is starting to move westward and that "feeder band" out in the Gulf is starting to drift with it :eek:

This is definitely not a typical summer start for Corpus Christi. Where's the "death ridge" from hell?
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Re: NW Gulf

#25 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:27 pm

Since it’s moving west now that should rule out any tropical worries. Although the low on the border of Texas and Mexico looks like it has some good spin as well! Anyone else see this
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Re: NW Gulf

#26 Postby wxman22 » Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:05 pm

The system looks good right now, could "pass" for a depression based on looks only.
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Re: NW Gulf

#27 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:21 pm

Western Gulf looking more and more interesting.
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Re: NW Gulf

#28 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:35 pm

They have the watch boxes up, Freeport buoy took a dive down to 29.82 so they probably could declare a TD but they must think it will be inland soon.
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Re: NW Gulf

#29 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:43 pm

Surface analysis does not yet show a closed low.
Image
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Re: NW Gulf

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:08 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch


Image
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Re: NW Gulf

#31 Postby Teban54 » Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:15 am

cycloneye wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch


https://i.imgur.com/jMP8OhH.png


Is this the first time that a disturbance first appears in the TWO with a 0%/0% chance?
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Re: NW Gulf

#32 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:31 am

They put out a 0% outlook?
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Re: NW Gulf

#33 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:52 am

A few of the meso models show a low developing offshore and tracking right over matagorda bay. Also the 3k NAM is showing this as well…
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Re: NW Gulf

#34 Postby abajan » Thu Jul 08, 2021 9:18 am

Teban54 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch


https://i.imgur.com/jMP8OhH.png


Is this the first time that a disturbance first appears in the TWO with a 0%/0% chance?

I've been wondering the same thing. While I've seen many instances of a watched system being reduced to 0%/0%, I don't recall ever seeing any initialized at those percentages. Could be just due to its proximity to the coast.
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Re: NW Gulf

#35 Postby underthwx » Thu Jul 08, 2021 9:46 am

abajan wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over South Carolina.

1. A broad trough of low pressure located over southern Texas has been
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this
system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas
Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch


https://i.imgur.com/jMP8OhH.png


Is this the first time that a disturbance first appears in the TWO with a 0%/0% chance?

I've been wondering the same thing. While I've seen many instances of a watched system being reduced to 0%/0%, I don't recall ever seeing any initialized at those percentages. Could be just due to its proximity to the coast.


Would not be too surprised to see a short lived depression evolve from this...either way, the wet stuff is falling from the sky in abundance...
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Re: NW Gulf

#36 Postby underthwx » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:26 am

Is this area of low pressure moving westward?
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Re: NW Gulf

#37 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:43 am

The mesoscale models are pumping out some impressive QPF amounts over southeast TX from this feature.
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Re: NW Gulf

#38 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:11 pm

Area south of LA. might be worth keeping an eye on too.
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Re: NW Gulf

#39 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2021 12:44 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located inland over North Carolina.

1. A broad area of low pressure nearly stationary over south Texas
is continuing to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although
development of this system is not anticipated since it is expected
to remain over land, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be
possible along the Texas Gulf coast over the next few days. See
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch
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