2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m starting to think that 2021 actually has a shot of exhausting the name list and potentially getting into the auxiliary list too. While this season is not going to keep up with the pace of 2020 (that suppressive CCKW will probably keep anything from developing until the last third of July), we’re still at a VERY strong start with 5 named storms already. If we see a minimum of 1 storm for the rest of July, 3 in August, 5 in September, 2 in October, and 1 in November, 2021 will finish with 17 storms. However, other hyperactive years had way more in August or September. 2004, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2020 all had 6-10 systems form in either of those months, and with a favorable CCKW entering the Atlantic starting in late July, it’s possible this August is also active. I also won’t rule out significant late season activity like in 2010, 2018, and 2020 to boost the numbers further.

It would take 1 more July storm, 4 in August (like 2017), 7 in September, 3 in October (like in 2018), and 1 in November (like 2016) to get us to 21 named storms. If any month in ASO becomes even more active — something that is impossible to confidently pin down at this point — then we’ll be in the auxiliary list. Doesn’t have the same ring as “going Greek”, but oh well.

Imagine if this year we did not ditch the Greek alphabet, went over 22 NSs (which would have been something many would not have ever imagined of, with two consecutive seasons going into that rare territory), and then had another bad Hurricane Delta or Eta (this is just a hypothetical possibility and not a prediction). That would have been very interesting to say the least.

Also, I would like to point out this tweet from Ben Noll from several days ago that may be very useful now that we are almost done tracking Elsa.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1410612909609304064




If anything, this could mean (assuming it verifies) that we could expect activity to ramp up again by the end of this month. And that early August velocity signature is simply nerve-wracking, with rising motion over the West Coast of Africa, I think theoretically speaking this could actually moisten where tropical waves exit the continent and facilitate the process of a TC actually forming near the Cabo Verde islands.

[aspen]

I’m starting to think that 2021 actually has a shot of exhausting the name list and potentially getting into the auxiliary list too. While this season is not going to keep up with the pace of 2020 (that suppressive CCKW will probably keep anything from developing until the last third of July), we’re still at a VERY strong start with 5 named storms already. If we see a minimum of 1 storm for the rest of July, 3 in August, 5 in September, 2 in October, and 1 in November, 2021 will finish with 17 storms. However, other hyperactive years had way more in August or September. 2004, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2020 all had 6-10 systems form in either of those months, and with a favorable CCKW entering the Atlantic starting in late July, it’s possible this August is also active. I also won’t rule out significant late season activity like in 2010, 2018, and 2020 to boost the numbers further.

It would take 1 more July storm, 4 in August (like 2017), 7 in September, 3 in October (like in 2018), and 1 in November (like 2016) to get us to 21 named storms. If any month in ASO becomes even more active — something that is impossible to confidently pin down at this point — then we’ll be in the auxiliary list. Doesn’t have the same ring as “going Greek”, but oh well.

Imagine if this year we did not ditch the Greek alphabet, went over 22 NSs (which would have been something many would not have ever imagined of, with two consecutive seasons going into that rare territory), and then had another bad Hurricane Delta or Eta (this is just a hypothetical possibility and not a prediction). That would have been very interesting to say the least.

Also, I would like to point out this tweet from Ben Noll from several days ago that may be very useful now that we are almost done tracking Elsa.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1410612909609304064

If anything, this could mean (assuming it verifies) that we could expect activity to ramp up again by the end of this month. And that early August velocity signature is simply nerve-wracking, with rising motion over the West Coast of Africa, I think theoretically speaking this could actually moisten where tropical waves exit the continent and facilitate the process of a TC actually forming near the Cabo Verde islands.

The JMA VP anomalies for July 17-24th look rather favorable too — not nearly as crazy favorable as the 24-31st, but it appears that the suppressive CCKW is just about done, and there is rising motion over Africa. Maybe that’ll be enough time to get two AEW-based systems by the end of the month.

The one possible impediment to late July-early August MDR activity are SSTs in the MDR. The CDAS map is still showing a significantly cooler-than-average MDR, even tough I don’t think there’s a significant SAL outbreak at the moment. Where can I find the Coral Reef SST maps?

[AlphaToOmega]

I’m starting to think that 2021 actually has a shot of exhausting the name list and potentially getting into the auxiliary list too. While this season is not going to keep up with the pace of 2020 (that suppressive CCKW will probably keep anything from developing until the last third of July), we’re still at a VERY strong start with 5 named storms already. If we see a minimum of 1 storm for the rest of July, 3 in August, 5 in September, 2 in October, and 1 in November, 2021 will finish with 17 storms. However, other hyperactive years had way more in August or September. 2004, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2020 all had 6-10 systems form in either of those months, and with a favorable CCKW entering the Atlantic starting in late July, it’s possible this August is also active. I also won’t rule out significant late season activity like in 2010, 2018, and 2020 to boost the numbers further.

It would take 1 more July storm, 4 in August (like 2017), 7 in September, 3 in October (like in 2018), and 1 in November (like 2016) to get us to 21 named storms. If any month in ASO becomes even more active — something that is impossible to confidently pin down at this point — then we’ll be in the auxiliary list. Doesn’t have the same ring as “going Greek”, but oh well.

Imagine if this year we did not ditch the Greek alphabet, went over 22 NSs (which would have been something many would not have ever imagined of, with two consecutive seasons going into that rare territory), and then had another bad Hurricane Delta or Eta (this is just a hypothetical possibility and not a prediction). That would have been very interesting to say the least.

Also, I would like to point out this tweet from Ben Noll from several days ago that may be very useful now that we are almost done tracking Elsa.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1410612909609304064

If anything, this could mean (assuming it verifies) that we could expect activity to ramp up again by the end of this month. And that early August velocity signature is simply nerve-wracking, with rising motion over the West Coast of Africa, I think theoretically speaking this could actually moisten where tropical waves exit the continent and facilitate the process of a TC actually forming near the Cabo Verde islands.

The JMA VP anomalies for July 17-24th look rather favorable too — not nearly as crazy favorable as the 24-31st, but it appears that the suppressive CCKW is just about done, and there is rising motion over Africa. Maybe that’ll be enough time to get two AEW-based systems by the end of the month.

The one possible impediment to late July-early August MDR activity are SSTs in the MDR. The CDAS map is still showing a significantly cooler-than-average MDR, even tough I don’t think there’s a significant SAL outbreak at the moment. Where can I find the Coral Reef SST maps?

CDAS has a cold bias. Coral Reef SST maps can be found on cyclonicwx

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m starting to think that 2021 actually has a shot of exhausting the name list and potentially getting into the auxiliary list too. While this season is not going to keep up with the pace of 2020 (that suppressive CCKW will probably keep anything from developing until the last third of July), we’re still at a VERY strong start with 5 named storms already. If we see a minimum of 1 storm for the rest of July, 3 in August, 5 in September, 2 in October, and 1 in November, 2021 will finish with 17 storms. However, other hyperactive years had way more in August or September. 2004, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2020 all had 6-10 systems form in either of those months, and with a favorable CCKW entering the Atlantic starting in late July, it’s possible this August is also active. I also won’t rule out significant late season activity like in 2010, 2018, and 2020 to boost the numbers further.

It would take 1 more July storm, 4 in August (like 2017), 7 in September, 3 in October (like in 2018), and 1 in November (like 2016) to get us to 21 named storms. If any month in ASO becomes even more active — something that is impossible to confidently pin down at this point — then we’ll be in the auxiliary list. Doesn’t have the same ring as “going Greek”, but oh well.

Imagine if this year we did not ditch the Greek alphabet, went over 22 NSs (which would have been something many would not have ever imagined of, with two consecutive seasons going into that rare territory), and then had another bad Hurricane Delta or Eta (this is just a hypothetical possibility and not a prediction). That would have been very interesting to say the least.

Also, I would like to point out this tweet from Ben Noll from several days ago that may be very useful now that we are almost done tracking Elsa.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1410612909609304064

If anything, this could mean (assuming it verifies) that we could expect activity to ramp up again by the end of this month. And that early August velocity signature is simply nerve-wracking, with rising motion over the West Coast of Africa, I think theoretically speaking this could actually moisten where tropical waves exit the continent and facilitate the process of a TC actually forming near the Cabo Verde islands.

The JMA VP anomalies for July 17-24th look rather favorable too — not nearly as crazy favorable as the 24-31st, but it appears that the suppressive CCKW is just about done, and there is rising motion over Africa. Maybe that’ll be enough time to get two AEW-based systems by the end of the month.

The one possible impediment to late July-early August MDR activity are SSTs in the MDR. The CDAS map is still showing a significantly cooler-than-average MDR, even tough I don’t think there’s a significant SAL outbreak at the moment. Where can I find the Coral Reef SST maps?

You mean this? This is the Coral Reef sst anomalies map that I typically use

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[SFLcane]

No hype but if you’re looking for recurving storms away from land good luck. Big high latitude ridge. Really don’t like what I am seeing with an entire season to go 15-8-4

[toad strangler]

No hype but if you’re looking for recurving storms away from land good luck. Big high latitude ridge. Really don’t like what I am seeing with an entire season to go 15-8-4

https://i.postimg.cc/C1LqfGn4/3-D6-CFB70-2-BE7-408-B-B6-DB-83837-C914-D59.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/NMJr8K1v/DE851114-97-CE-4-E40-8-A43-9-FEEC9-BCEFA2.jpg

That's a look for sure but 500mb is so tough to nail down even in the short term.

[SFLcane]

No hype but if you’re looking for recurving storms away from land good luck. Big high latitude ridge. Really don’t like what I am seeing with an entire season to go 15-8-4

https://i.postimg.cc/C1LqfGn4/3-D6-CFB70-2-BE7-408-B-B6-DB-83837-C914-D59.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/NMJr8K1v/DE851114-97-CE-4-E40-8-A43-9-FEEC9-BCEFA2.jpg

That's a look for sure but 500mb is so tough to nail down even in the short term.

Yes sir I’ll be seeing you at 2am Gonna be a lot watching the trough/ridge pattern along 75W.

[AlphaToOmega]

CanSIPS velocity potential forecast:


September 2020 velocity potential anomalies:


CFSv2 velocity potential forecast:


September 1990 velocity potential anomalies:


Just like before, the CanSIPS is suggesting a potential 2020 repeat, but the CFSv2 is suggesting a 1990 repeat. The CanSIPS forecast has negative velocity potential anomalies over Africa, and it has positive velocity potentials over the Americas and the Pacific Ocean; that is the pattern conducive for hyperactive hurricane seasons. The CFSv2 has positive velocity potentials over Africa and the Americas, but it has positive velocity potentials over Asia and the Indian Ocean. This pattern was present during the -AMO period, which would be indicative of an inactive season ahead. If the CanSIPS forecast verifies, we would likely see an ACE of ~180; if the CFSv2 forecast verifies, we would likely see an ACE of ~95.

[Category5Kaiju]

CanSIPS velocity potential forecast:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2021070100/cansips_chi200_global_3.png

September 2020 velocity potential anomalies:
https://i.postimg.cc/L8B00VzT/y-DMJHxhx51.png

CFSv2 velocity potential forecast:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2021070806/cfs-mon_01_chi200_global_2.png

September 1990 velocity potential anomalies:
https://i.postimg.cc/bJzPBJDG/5an-Axu-EIh-F.png

Just like before, the CanSIPS is suggesting a potential 2020 repeat, but the CFSv2 is suggesting a 1990 repeat. The CanSIPS forecast has negative velocity potential anomalies over Africa, and it has positive velocity potentials over the Americas and the Pacific Ocean; that is the pattern conducive for hyperactive hurricane seasons. The CFSv2 has positive velocity potentials over Africa and the Americas, but it has positive velocity potentials over Asia and the Indian Ocean. This pattern was present during the -AMO period, which would be indicative of an inactive season ahead. If the CanSIPS forecast verifies, we would likely see an ACE of ~180; if the CFSv2 forecast verifies, we would likely see an ACE of ~95.

Um, not to downplay what you are saying, but I would not necessarily say that a 1990 repeat is likely. That year had a warm neutral ENSO that was +0.4 C sustained at its max potency, and this year the ENSO is very strongly looking to lean toward cool neutral to perhaps even some form of La Niña.

[AlphaToOmega]

CanSIPS velocity potential forecast:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2021070100/cansips_chi200_global_3.png

September 2020 velocity potential anomalies:
https://i.postimg.cc/L8B00VzT/y-DMJHxhx51.png

CFSv2 velocity potential forecast:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2021070806/cfs-mon_01_chi200_global_2.png

September 1990 velocity potential anomalies:
https://i.postimg.cc/bJzPBJDG/5an-Axu-EIh-F.png

Just like before, the CanSIPS is suggesting a potential 2020 repeat, but the CFSv2 is suggesting a 1990 repeat. The CanSIPS forecast has negative velocity potential anomalies over Africa, and it has positive velocity potentials over the Americas and the Pacific Ocean; that is the pattern conducive for hyperactive hurricane seasons. The CFSv2 has positive velocity potentials over Africa and the Americas, but it has positive velocity potentials over Asia and the Indian Ocean. This pattern was present during the -AMO period, which would be indicative of an inactive season ahead. If the CanSIPS forecast verifies, we would likely see an ACE of ~180; if the CFSv2 forecast verifies, we would likely see an ACE of ~95.

Um, not to downplay what you are saying, but I would not necessarily say that a 1990 repeat is likely. That year had a warm neutral ENSO that was +0.4 C sustained at its max potency, and this year the ENSO is very strongly looking to lean toward cool neutral to perhaps even some form of La Niña.

I know that, but I am wondering what is going on with the CFSv2

[Kingarabian]

CanSIPS velocity potential forecast:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2021070100/cansips_chi200_global_3.png

September 2020 velocity potential anomalies:
https://i.postimg.cc/L8B00VzT/y-DMJHxhx51.png

CFSv2 velocity potential forecast:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2021070806/cfs-mon_01_chi200_global_2.png

September 1990 velocity potential anomalies:
https://i.postimg.cc/bJzPBJDG/5an-Axu-EIh-F.png

Just like before, the CanSIPS is suggesting a potential 2020 repeat, but the CFSv2 is suggesting a 1990 repeat. The CanSIPS forecast has negative velocity potential anomalies over Africa, and it has positive velocity potentials over the Americas and the Pacific Ocean; that is the pattern conducive for hyperactive hurricane seasons. The CFSv2 has positive velocity potentials over Africa and the Americas, but it has positive velocity potentials over Asia and the Indian Ocean. This pattern was present during the -AMO period, which would be indicative of an inactive season ahead. If the CanSIPS forecast verifies, we would likely see an ACE of ~180; if the CFSv2 forecast verifies, we would likely see an ACE of ~95.

Um, not to downplay what you are saying, but I would not necessarily say that a 1990 repeat is likely. That year had a warm neutral ENSO that was +0.4 C sustained at its max potency, and this year the ENSO is very strongly looking to lean toward cool neutral to perhaps even some form of La Niña.

I know that, but I am wondering what is going on with the CFSv2

Warm SST's produce much more -VP200 (rising air) than cooler SST's. Check where the warmest SST's are globally. You will find them in the WPAC, MC, and the eastern Indian Ocean. So anomalously, that's what the CFS is showing with that VP200 configuration. The CFS is latching on to what's actually happening, and this is much less to do with the model's own forecast.

It just so happens that the same thing happened in 1990, but a lot of other things come into play. We discussed in the EPAC thread that the 80s and 90s featured a strong NA standing wave, which boosts EPAC hurricane seasons similar to the way the African standing wave boosts Atlantic hurricane seasons. There probably won't be a NA standing wave this year and the African standing wave will remain strong. So while 2021 might share the same global VP200 configuration with 1990, its very likely the hurricane season will be the complete opposite of 1990.

To get a hint of what's going to happen in September, we should monitor EPAC activity. A active EPAC typically means a slower Atlantic. But it's very unlikely the EPAC will be active this year with a -PDO/-PMM and ENSO flipping negative in a month or so.

[DestinHurricane]

From CSU:

In general, early season Atlantic hurricane activity has very little correlation with
overall Atlantic hurricane activity. However, when this activity occurs in the tropics
(south of 23.5°N), that is typically a harbinger of a very active season. Hurricane Elsa
formed in the tropical Atlantic and then tracked into the eastern Caribbean (10-20°N, 75-
60°W) at hurricane strength. Since 1900, only six other years have had eastern Caribbean
hurricanes prior to 1 August: 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020. All six of those
years were classified as hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons using the NOAA Atlantic
hurricane season definition (>=160 ACE).

While I do think 2021 will be an above average season, maybe even hyperactive especially now that Cool-Neutral or La Nina looks likely during the peak months. I disagree that Elsa is a sign of an active season. All of the years they mentioned, 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020, had long lived hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean. Elsa was able to jump to hurricane for a few hours before it weakened back down, unlike the aforementioned seasons' E Carib hurricanes. The fact that Elsa was not able to maintain hurricane intensity through the Eastern Caribbean due to wind shear doesn't necessarily point to an inactive season, I just don't think it means the season will be hyperactive (though it may be, just wont be because of Elsa). Elsa did not find very favorable conditions in the eastern Caribbean, which is expected in july, even in an above average season. Some of the most active seasons such as 2017 don't have hurricanes in the e Caribbean in July.

[psyclone]

Surveying the landscape of where we are and where we're most likely headed reminds me of my favorite season cancel anthem: Depeche Mode's enjoy the silence. the slop storm appetizers have been consumed and we have some time before the main course gets underway. a couple weeks, perhaps several weeks. Enjoy the intermission because it is likely that we are going to jam come peak season.

[aspen]

From CSU:

In general, early season Atlantic hurricane activity has very little correlation with
overall Atlantic hurricane activity. However, when this activity occurs in the tropics
(south of 23.5°N), that is typically a harbinger of a very active season. Hurricane Elsa
formed in the tropical Atlantic and then tracked into the eastern Caribbean (10-20°N, 75-
60°W) at hurricane strength. Since 1900, only six other years have had eastern Caribbean
hurricanes prior to 1 August: 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020. All six of those
years were classified as hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons using the NOAA Atlantic
hurricane season definition (>=160 ACE).

While I do think 2021 will be an above average season, maybe even hyperactive especially now that Cool-Neutral or La Nina looks likely during the peak months. I disagree that Elsa is a sign of an active season. All of the years they mentioned, 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020, had long lived hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean. Elsa was able to jump to hurricane for a few hours before it weakened back down, unlike the aforementioned seasons' E Carib hurricanes. The fact that Elsa was not able to maintain hurricane intensity through the Eastern Caribbean due to wind shear doesn't necessarily point to an inactive season, I just don't think it means the season will be hyperactive (though it may be, just wont be because of Elsa). Elsa did not find very favorable conditions in the eastern Caribbean, which is expected in july, even in an above average season. Some of the most active seasons such as 2017 don't have hurricanes in the e Caribbean in July.

That’s why I prefer looking at seasons with any MDR/AEW storm of any intensity east of 70W and south of 22.5N. It’s a wide sample size that still indicates an active season (18/10/4 and 174 ACE average excluding 2013), and includes other active seasons that lacked a hurricane in this region like 1995, 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2017. IMO, the intensity of a July MDR/AEW storm matters less compared to the fact that one was even able to form in the first place.

[tolakram]

I think the "wasn't as strong" theme this year is being heavily overused. Everyone wants to jump on simple indicators and I really don't think this works. Elsa is a sign that something can make it to hurricane even in less than ideal conditions, which I think speaks strongly to a season of high activity.

[AlphaToOmega]

From CSU:

In general, early season Atlantic hurricane activity has very little correlation with
overall Atlantic hurricane activity. However, when this activity occurs in the tropics
(south of 23.5°N), that is typically a harbinger of a very active season. Hurricane Elsa
formed in the tropical Atlantic and then tracked into the eastern Caribbean (10-20°N, 75-
60°W) at hurricane strength. Since 1900, only six other years have had eastern Caribbean
hurricanes prior to 1 August: 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020. All six of those
years were classified as hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons using the NOAA Atlantic
hurricane season definition (>=160 ACE).

While I do think 2021 will be an above average season, maybe even hyperactive especially now that Cool-Neutral or La Nina looks likely during the peak months. I disagree that Elsa is a sign of an active season. All of the years they mentioned, 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020, had long lived hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean. Elsa was able to jump to hurricane for a few hours before it weakened back down, unlike the aforementioned seasons' E Carib hurricanes. The fact that Elsa was not able to maintain hurricane intensity through the Eastern Caribbean due to wind shear doesn't necessarily point to an inactive season, I just don't think it means the season will be hyperactive (though it may be, just wont be because of Elsa). Elsa did not find very favorable conditions in the eastern Caribbean, which is expected in july, even in an above average season. Some of the most active seasons such as 2017 don't have hurricanes in the e Caribbean in July.

Remember 2020 had Gonzalo, which did not even make it to hurricane status. The fact that we are seeing early Caribbean storms perform better than 2020's early Caribbean storms at an early time than 2020's should really say something. Also, 2020's long-lived Caribbean storms did not form until later in the year when conditions were more favorable.

[psyclone]

I think the "wasn't as strong" theme this year is being heavily overused. Everyone wants to jump on simple indicators and I really don't think this works. Elsa is a sign that something can make it to hurricane even in less than ideal conditions, which I think speaks strongly to a season of high activity.

It really does. We can't look at Elsa as a strong storm. Instead we should look at it as a storm that developed and existed at a time and place where none should have existed. When viewed through that appropriate contextual prism, it is a major red flag. While it may be true that not all active seasons have an eastern caribbean July cane, the real takeaway should be that all seasons with an eastern caribbean July cane were active to hyperactive. It's not a guarantee but it's close.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think the "wasn't as strong" theme this year is being heavily overused. Everyone wants to jump on simple indicators and I really don't think this works. Elsa is a sign that something can make it to hurricane even in less than ideal conditions, which I think speaks strongly to a season of high activity.

How can I like a comment more than once? I think you basically summed it up in two lines. June and July are inherently unfavorable months for development thanks to climo, and unless we get some freak season like 2005 (which was an exceptionally rare season that I do not expect to be replicated anytime soon in how extreme it simply was), the idea of getting a hurricane in less than ideal conditions (early July, that is) and with many other active seasons lacking this sort of event is a very credible warning signal. Also, now that we are in the midst of a strength vs pure existence debate regarding Elsa and what that storm would likely mean for the months to come, I will rephrase an old post I made about an analogy that I personally find very useful in trying to visualize storms existing in places and times where they should not be existing, except in the context of this month:

Here’s the way I see it: imagine a professor giving out an exam designed to be very hard and have a class average that is a low D. Many students get Fs. This is like an analogy to the Atlantic basin in early July. Very unfavorable, with many storms that fail to form at all or that exist as minimal TSs. But then you could have several students who do much better than a low D, and get a high C for instance. Not a great score of course, but compared to the average and the difficulty of the questions on the exam, that is impressive. This is analogous to those Atlantic hurricane seasons that are able to produce MDR hurricanes in early July, despite them struggling a bit since the climo is inherently unfavorable.

[weeniepatrol]

h/t wxtca

Africa is looking even scarier than last year so far.

June 2020 VP anomalies:



June 2021:



Make sure you're ready for ASO, folks!

[Teban54]

I thought July 8 is when people are supposed to talk about how SAL is plaguing the Atlantic and how nothing will develop in the peak season because of that?

The fact that such conversations are not happening is already quite alarming. Especially when many people expect a busy late July and early August with several MDR systems after the suppressed CCKW is over, despite climo saying otherwise.