2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Has this absorbing another low (which the GFS falsely spins up into a TC) and makes this decently strong a bit sooner than 18z.

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC much weaker with the first system:

Stronger with the second system:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro very bullish now. Even has a CPAC system:

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS a bit more realistic.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS:


12z CMC backs off on two systems, only has one strong one.


12z Euro continue with the two TC solution, starts development in four days:


GFS/CMC/UKMET start development in about 5 days much closer to Mexico. Euro has been showing the systems forming away from Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next
week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the NHC is siding with the Euro/EPS for now. It's the only model that develops the first system after the CMC dropped it. Looks like they're also not siding with the GFS track, instead showing the second system forming away from Mexico.

[Yellow Evan]

ASW go brrr will likely kill serious activity in August. It’s these 2 CCKW’s in July or never at least for a while.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS now potent with both systems.

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/862863952546234378/eps_chi200_anomaly_hov_equatorial_2021070800_MEAN.png[url]

ASW go brrr will likely kill serious activity in August. It’s these 2 CCKW’s in July or never.

Possible. Still should see some decent storms in August->mid-September but not at the current blistering rate since the EPAC has been making the most of any CCKW passage.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/FIGaM5J.png

https://i.imgur.com/NrweVeh.png

18z GFS now potent with both systems.

I think that could be a third system on the 16 day GFS. It barely develops the first system that the NHC just circled.

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/862863952546234378/eps_chi200_anomaly_hov_equatorial_2021070800_MEAN.png

ASW go brrr will likely kill serious activity in August. It’s these 2 CCKW’s in July or never at least for a while.

The EPac has one sliver of opportunity to pump out some systems before the Atlantic and the ASW take over. Seems like July 21st-26th might be the most favorable. Afterwards…wow, that is an incredible setup for the Atlantic

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

960
ABPZ20 KNHC 090532
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 8 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next
week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS now longer has the westward system and peaks the eastward system at day 11.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro still has two systems:

[aspen]

GFS, CMC, and ICON show the westernmost AOI by 120 hours, emerging from Central America. As Kingarabian posted above, the Euro does show it develop, but is much later than the other global models.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 9 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next
week. Any subsequent development of this system is expected to be
gradual as it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. Gradual development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves west-northwestward
to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS is strongest run yet. Track also rapidly shifting west and now in line with the ECMWF.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/81PFcK6.png

6z GFS is strongest run yet. Track also rapidly shifting west and now in line with the ECMWF.

It’s also coming from a rather low latitude, so it’ll be within very high (29-30C) SSTs pretty early on and could have the chance for significant intensification there. However, this is a cool neutral ENSO year, and everything else has been struggling as much as in 2020, so I’d say there’s a decent chance this storm follows suit.