2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[hurricane2025]

When was the last time upper Texas coast/SW LA. had a wet pattern in June and July like this?

[AlphaToOmega]

Here is where the ITCZ is likely to be come peak season. Obviously, it is and will be much farther south this year than it was last year.
https://i.postimg.cc/BQ0Q2pYy/itcz.png

Id advise not to use precipitation from climate models to determine potential tropical cyclone tracks. I would take those forecast with caution this season as some of these models are having trouble with Atlantic El Niño and have dry bias. I for one think it probably won’t be a very high number season but more of an impactful year in terms of impacts. I will be ready in SFL as the signs are ominous from looking z500 model output. Just because an area is shaded brown doesn’t mean a tc won’t track through through there.

I have seen how badly precipitation forecasts are when it comes to cyclone tracks, but the ITCZ is not a cyclone track.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hmmm...

[cycloneye]

I like better the OISSTv2.

[toad strangler]

Here is where the ITCZ is likely to be come peak season. Obviously, it is and will be much farther south this year than it was last year.
https://i.postimg.cc/BQ0Q2pYy/itcz.png

Id advise not to use precipitation from climate models to determine potential tropical cyclone tracks. I would take those forecast with caution this season as some of these models are having trouble with Atlantic El Niño and have dry bias. I for one think it probably won’t be a very high number season but more of an impactful year in terms of impacts. I will be ready in SFL as the signs are ominous from looking z500 model output. Just because an area is shaded brown doesn’t mean a tc won’t track through through there.

I have seen how badly precipitation forecasts are when it comes to cyclone tracks, but the ITCZ is not a cyclone track.

Ya, any TC worth it's salt needs to leave the ITCZ umbilical cord. A ITCZ that low (should it verify) combined with recent 500mb long range maps for ASO should have everyone's attention in the SW and overall W part of the basin.

[SFLcane]

Just give it a few weeks for sleeping giant to wake up.

[AlphaToOmega]

I have a strangle feeling that there might be post-season activity is this year. Is it the MJO? Is it the fact that it has been 8 years since the last post-season storm?

[Category5Kaiju]

I like better the OISSTv2.

https://i.imgur.com/Ir7X4oI.png

Ok so it's somewhat visible on that map too; I think the warmth near the equator is creeping a bit northward (either that or the MDR itself is warming up a bit). The MDR does not seem to be *that* anomalously cool as it was before.

[Steve]

When was the last time upper Texas coast/SW LA. had a wet pattern in June and July like this?

Not 100% sure that far west. I did see a video from Ch 4 NOLA the other day that they are already over 60”. If they get just average rainfall the rest of the year it would be 3rd all time. It was a weird and disparate set of years that were in the Top 6 - 1991, 1983, 1961, 1992, 2009, 2004. Nothing notable there in N.O. but Andrew hit near Morgan City in 1992. ‘04 was ‘04. I thought the tv report referenced 1995 as well but that might have only been to this far into the year.

[AnnularCane]

Oddly, outside of the white Christmas and the tropics, I seem to remember very little about the weather in 2004. Even local (NOLA at the time) weather, so don't remember it being overly wet. Weird.

[Steve]

:uarrow: Oddly, outside of the white Christmas and the tropics, I seem to remember very little about the weather in 2004. Even local (NOLA at the time) weather, so don't remember it being overly wet. Weird.

Yeah. That was the first Xmas it snowed since the 1950’s. Other events were Ivan part I (windy) and II (more rain). And then Matthew hit Cocodrie the second week of October. We got 6-8” that night too. That was back when we only had 10-15 systems a year. Haha

[AlphaToOmega]

This seems like a favorable mid-latitude pattern for December. The season might not be over by November 30.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1416827441889300483




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1417117168492285961

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1417117743200063489




 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1417118883463503875

[Stormybajan]

No deviation in anticipated schedule as of yet

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1416129137698299904?s=20

Based on this, looks like we may have to wait until August 7th for activity to get going again. Elsa formed July 1st so this will be a massive break..even longer than I first thought

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1417084693233741824



Maybe I have predicted the magic number early

[tolakram]

Second wettest summer in Cincinnati on record. Hurricane seasons for our wettest years are all over the place.



Of the top 5 two had significant hurricanes into Florida. Other than that there doesn't seem to be any correlation with fast or slow seasons.

[NotSparta]

This seems like a favorable mid-latitude pattern for December. The season might not be over by November 30.
https://i.postimg.cc/527Qp43Y/cansips-ashear-atl-6.png

Shear looks high everywhere but yeah perhaps we could see some sort of high-latitude system. Those are always hard to predict though

[toad strangler]

I'm not a believer in preceding seasonal precipitation records wet or dry having anything to do with heightened landfall risks come hurricane season.

[Category5Kaiju]

Second wettest summer in Cincinnati on record. Hurricane seasons for our wettest years are all over the place.

https://i.imgur.com/LhMRmqX.png

Of the top 5 two had significant hurricanes into Florida. Other than that there doesn't seem to be any correlation with fast or slow seasons.

Haha, 2013's in there...but then you look at 1928, 1932, and 1998, and oh snap.

[SconnieCane]

Second wettest summer in Cincinnati on record. Hurricane seasons for our wettest years are all over the place.

https://i.imgur.com/LhMRmqX.png

Of the top 5 two had significant hurricanes into Florida. Other than that there doesn't seem to be any correlation with fast or slow seasons.

Haha, 2013's in there...but then you look at 1928, 1932, and 1998, and oh snap.

I think 2013 can pretty much be thrown out as an Atlantic hurricane season analog whenever it pops up, since the thing that caused it to fail was not really part of the usual suite of seasonal "predictors," correct?