2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

The MDR is 0.62 C above-average.

https://i.postimg.cc/X72Yj09y/ssta-graph-atlmdr.png

The OISST seems to have a warm bias. On the CRW map, it’s 0.24C above average. Both agree that the Gulf is roughly 0.55-0.65C warmer that normal, but are very different with the Caribbean: +0.81C (OISST) vs +0.39C (CRW). Regardless, everything is running warmer than average now.

The mean SSTs in the Gulf have risen to 30.01C. This combined with the extra-warm Loop Current really make me concerned about something going bonkers in the Gulf, if it’s given the optimal moisture and shear/UL setup.

The Gulf Current has really been spiking in UOHC, this was definitely not evident even in the recent crazy years like 2017 or 2020 if I recall

[jconsor]

CFS has performed poorly even in the short term recently in the tropical Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1420828100796035077




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420831631577915393

[SFLcane]

CFS has performed poorly even in the short term recently in the tropical Atlantic.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1420830534528389127

Well see if that shear actually goes away in subsequent forecasts.

[AlphaToOmega]

OISSTv2.1 reports a 0.62 C anomaly for the MDR, a 0.806 C anomaly for the Caribbean, and a 0.628 C anomaly for the Gulf of Mexico. What did it report on 2020-07-29?

[toad strangler]

I don't believe any shear forecasts past 5 days and I'm skeptical after 3

[JPmia]

I think that part of what might be going on with these shear forecasts for August is that they are showing an average for the whole month. It is quite possible that shear could be higher than normal in the Caribbean for a large section of August. However, there is a good chance towards the middle and end of the month, conditions could rapidly change and become more favorable for development.

Also, another possibility is that the models are not handling the transition of the MJO very well. It really seems like models often have trouble with this and how it changes the overall environment of basins as it progresses.

Bingo.. I think it’s important to keep this post and the tweets about what Irma did in mind when looking at these forecasts.

[AlphaToOmega]

We will know for sure once the August monthly CanSIPS and JMA come out

[AlphaToOmega]

The cold blob is gone.

[captainbarbossa19]

Just for funsies, let me bring up this Tweet from the 2017 season right before it exploded into action. I think it also would apply quite well to this year as always.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/899427722367315968

I found this related post from 2017 too. So silly.  https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/899430461621121028

[Category5Kaiju]

The cold blob is gone.

https://i.postimg.cc/90SCvK8q/ssta-global.png

Heck even the CDAS is starting to realize that its ultra-cold bias may have been a bit too far; the - sst anomalies in the MDR are beginning to fade

[aspen]

Just for funsies, let me bring up this Tweet from the 2017 season right before it exploded into action. I think it also would apply quite well to this year as always.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/899427722367315968

I found this related post from 2017 too. So silly. https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/899430461621121028/photo/1

If Florida is Cap’s shield, then Irma was Thanos’s giant sword.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just for funsies, let me bring up this Tweet from the 2017 season right before it exploded into action. I think it also would apply quite well to this year as always.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/899427722367315968

I found this related post from 2017 too. So silly. https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/899430461621121028/photo/1

If Florida is Cap’s shield, then Irma was Thanos’s giant sword.

Thanos's chest: Abaco Islands
Thor's Stormbreaker axe: Hurricane Dorian
Thanos's head: Florida

[AlphaToOmega]

One thing is for sure: the models seriously need to be adjusted after the season is over. If conditions are going to be favorable, the models should show that! This model flip-flopping makes everything confusing and shows that the reliability of models need to be greatly questioned.

[SconnieCane]

The MDR is 0.62 C above-average.

https://i.postimg.cc/X72Yj09y/ssta-graph-atlmdr.png

The OISST seems to have a warm bias. On the CRW map, it’s 0.24C above average. Both agree that the Gulf is roughly 0.55-0.65C warmer that normal, but are very different with the Caribbean: +0.81C (OISST) vs +0.39C (CRW). Regardless, everything is running warmer than average now.

The mean SSTs in the Gulf have risen to 30.01C. This combined with the extra-warm Loop Current really make me concerned about something going bonkers in the Gulf, if it’s given the optimal moisture and shear/UL setup.

The Gulf has been on a tear of late with Harvey (to a lesser extent Nate), Michael, and Hanna/Laura/Sally/Delta/Zeta, only taking 2019 off out of the last four seasons as far as producing hurricanes, some of them major. And they are not following the old "rule" according to the likes of Opal, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, etc; and maintaining or even continuing to intensify at landfall. If that trend doesn't continue in 2021, it won't be because of SSTs/OHC.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The MDR is 0.62 C above-average.

https://i.postimg.cc/X72Yj09y/ssta-graph-atlmdr.png

The OISST seems to have a warm bias. On the CRW map, it’s 0.24C above average. Both agree that the Gulf is roughly 0.55-0.65C warmer that normal, but are very different with the Caribbean: +0.81C (OISST) vs +0.39C (CRW). Regardless, everything is running warmer than average now.

The mean SSTs in the Gulf have risen to 30.01C. This combined with the extra-warm Loop Current really make me concerned about something going bonkers in the Gulf, if it’s given the optimal moisture and shear/UL setup.

The Gulf has been on a tear of late with Harvey (to a lesser extent Nate), Michael, and Hanna/Laura/Sally/Delta/Zeta, only taking 2019 off out of the last four seasons as far as producing hurricanes, some of them major. And they are not following the old "rule" according to the likes of Opal, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, etc; and maintaining or even continuing to intensify at landfall. If that trend doesn't continue in 2021, it won't be because of SSTs/OHC.

Ugly Barry started crying in the background.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/ZCKE7wTR1Bk[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420929948294975488

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1420929948294975488

MORE favorable is the key phrase here. It doesn't have to be ALL favorable across the board.. getting closer

[St0rmTh0r]

I found this related post from 2017 too. So silly. https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/899430461621121028/photo/1

If Florida is Cap’s shield, then Irma was Thanos’s giant sword.

Thanos's chest: Abaco Islands
Thor's Stormbreaker axe: Hurricane Dorian
Thanos's head: Florida

I should have went for the head...

[AlphaToOmega]

The next monthly CanSIPS forecast will come out tomorrow. We will see how things shape up come peak season.

We are certain of +AMO, +TNA, -ENSO, -PDO, and -VP over Africa come ASO. If there is no -VP cell over the EPac come peak season, the season will have the same patterns as 2020 and 2010. If there is a -VP over the EPac come peak season, the season will have the same patterns as 2011, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2001, 1999, and 1998.