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Interesting to see westerly anomalies near 120W.
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Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/870422249923051540/image0.jpg
Interesting to see westerly anomalies near 120W.
NotSparta wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/870422249923051540/image0.jpg
Interesting to see westerly anomalies near 120W.
Guessing that has to do with EPAC TCs, looks like that to me
Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
Kingarabian wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.
Category5Kaiju wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.
2016 was weird; wasn't it like the fifth most active Pacific basin yet still had a La Nina? Also if I recall the Atlantic was very quiet throughout even September, and it was only in October when the major hurricanes really got going. However, I am not sure how well 2016 and 2021 compare ENSO state wise given one was a first year Nina right after a super Nino
AlphaToOmega wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.
2016 was weird; wasn't it like the fifth most active Pacific basin yet still had a La Nina? Also if I recall the Atlantic was very quiet throughout even September, and it was only in October when the major hurricanes really got going. However, I am not sure how well 2016 and 2021 compare ENSO state wise given one was a first year Nina right after a super Nino
2016 started as an El Nino year but ended as a La Nina year. This made the 2016 Pacific Hurricane Season extremely front-loaded.
Deshaunrob17 wrote:I just realized that since 2016, we've been frequently going into La Nina patterns. 2016, 2017, 2020 and maybe 2021 -all developed La.Nina. What's with all these La Ninas? One thing for sure, an El Nino is bound to happen within the next couple of years
Deshaunrob17 wrote:I just realized that since 2016, we've been frequently going into La Nina patterns. 2016, 2017, 2020 and maybe 2021 -all developed La.Nina. What's with all these La Ninas? One thing for sure, an El Nino is bound to happen within the next couple of years
AlphaToOmega wrote:I tried posting this in 2021 Indicators, but the thread is locked. I guess this is the next best thread for this.
This is why I do not trust the CFSv2. There is an obvious La Nina in the model, yet wind shear in the East Pacific is below-average.
https://i.postimg.cc/Y07Ljrpc/cfs-mon-01-ashear-epac-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/C1kfFBpH/cfs-mon-01-ssta-epac-1.png
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