ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Those only keep the surface temperatures warm and usually associated with CCKW/MJO passage, which is normal considering present VP200 observations. Its a more potent signal in late Spring after you get successive dateline WWB's followed by a WWB near 130W-140W.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139719
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
That means EPAC will be busy with TC formations in the next 2 weeks.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/870422249923051540/image0.jpg
Interesting to see westerly anomalies near 120W.
Guessing that has to do with EPAC TCs, looks like that to me
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
NotSparta wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/870422249923051540/image0.jpg
Interesting to see westerly anomalies near 120W.
Guessing that has to do with EPAC TCs, looks like that to me
Yeah too far north to effect Nino 3 and Nino 1+2.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3444
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: ENSO Updates
Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
Yes, usually there's an early season active period during La Niñas especially weaker ones like this where the MJO comes around before the La Niña has really set in
8 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3444
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.
2016 was weird; wasn't it like the fifth most active Pacific basin yet still had a La Nina? Also if I recall the Atlantic was very quiet throughout even September, and it was only in October when the major hurricanes really got going. However, I am not sure how well 2016 and 2021 compare ENSO state wise given one was a first year Nina right after a super Nino
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1448
- Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
- Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts
Re: ENSO Updates
Category5Kaiju wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.
2016 was weird; wasn't it like the fifth most active Pacific basin yet still had a La Nina? Also if I recall the Atlantic was very quiet throughout even September, and it was only in October when the major hurricanes really got going. However, I am not sure how well 2016 and 2021 compare ENSO state wise given one was a first year Nina right after a super Nino
2016 started as an El Nino year but ended as a La Nina year. This made the 2016 Pacific Hurricane Season extremely front-loaded.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
AlphaToOmega wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.
2016 was weird; wasn't it like the fifth most active Pacific basin yet still had a La Nina? Also if I recall the Atlantic was very quiet throughout even September, and it was only in October when the major hurricanes really got going. However, I am not sure how well 2016 and 2021 compare ENSO state wise given one was a first year Nina right after a super Nino
2016 started as an El Nino year but ended as a La Nina year. This made the 2016 Pacific Hurricane Season extremely front-loaded.
2016 seemed to break the trend and was more even loaded with no activity in June. If the EPAC can remain warm in a post-Niño environment while only the CPAC initially cools (see 1983, 1992, and 1998), this helps the EPAC considerably.
4 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1448
- Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
- Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 193
- Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:49 am
Re: ENSO Updates
I just realized that since 2016, we've been frequently going into La Nina patterns. 2016, 2017, 2020 and maybe 2021 -all developed La.Nina. What's with all these La Ninas? One thing for sure, an El Nino is bound to happen within the next couple of years
2 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3444
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: ENSO Updates
Deshaunrob17 wrote:I just realized that since 2016, we've been frequently going into La Nina patterns. 2016, 2017, 2020 and maybe 2021 -all developed La.Nina. What's with all these La Ninas? One thing for sure, an El Nino is bound to happen within the next couple of years
Largely in part due to the very strong WAM in recent years, I think. In fact, the reason why the 2018 El Nino died so abruptly was partly due to the WAM; if it remains potent in the near future, I would not be shocked if years like 2022 or 2023 (which are when an El Nino would fathomably occur) feature a very weak El Nino at the most (when without a strong WAM we could easily expect a moderate El Nino or something like that).
1 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1448
- Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
- Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts
Re: ENSO Updates
I tried posting this in 2021 Indicators, but the thread is locked. I guess this is the next best thread for this.
This is why I do not trust the CFSv2. There is an obvious La Nina in the model, yet wind shear in the East Pacific is below-average.
This is why I do not trust the CFSv2. There is an obvious La Nina in the model, yet wind shear in the East Pacific is below-average.
4 likes
Re: ENSO Updates
Deshaunrob17 wrote:I just realized that since 2016, we've been frequently going into La Nina patterns. 2016, 2017, 2020 and maybe 2021 -all developed La.Nina. What's with all these La Ninas? One thing for sure, an El Nino is bound to happen within the next couple of years
I read somewhere (I don't remember where unfortunately), that La Niña is easier to achieve and occurs slightly more frequently than Él Niño. I believe it's because the default setting for the EPAC/CPAC is for the trade winds to blow out of the east to the west, and Niños require more frequent and intense WWBs to initiate downwelling to create warm subsurface pools that then travel to the east and surface along the equator off Central/South America. The atmosphere has to do more heavy lifting to achieve Él Niño, throw another 50lbs on the barbell and do 5 more reps.
10 likes
Solar Aquarian
Lunar Cancerian
Sagittarian
Lunar Cancerian
Sagittarian
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Haven't looked in a while but oddly enough, there's an ongoing WWB from the CPAC to the EPAC over the Nino regions.
Isn't much OHC to make any difference but we can see just how strong this MJO has been over the Pacific.
Isn't much OHC to make any difference but we can see just how strong this MJO has been over the Pacific.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
AlphaToOmega wrote:I tried posting this in 2021 Indicators, but the thread is locked. I guess this is the next best thread for this.
This is why I do not trust the CFSv2. There is an obvious La Nina in the model, yet wind shear in the East Pacific is below-average.
https://i.postimg.cc/Y07Ljrpc/cfs-mon-01-ashear-epac-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/C1kfFBpH/cfs-mon-01-ssta-epac-1.png
Probably over cooking the effects of a warmer than normal Nino 1+2. Looks too extreme.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1448
- Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
- Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts
- weeniepatrol
- Category 3
- Posts: 871
- Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
- Location: WA State
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Cat5James, Category5Kaiju, Cpv17, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], nijay, skyline385, Stratton23, tolakram, Wampadawg and 37 guests