2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS has the 30/60 getting killed by 90E.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF caving to GFS with regards to long range activity as well as the 30/60 getting absorbed by 90E.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF brings the 30/60 back and now on board for something in 10 days.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has 6 named systems (including TD9 and Hilda) by the end of its run.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Continued gradual
development of this system is expected during the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS makes a borderline hurricane out of 40/70, and then 3 systems including 2 majors behind it.

[gatorcane]

Check out the next EPAC beast on the latest GFS

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/BmN9vNt.png

https://i.imgur.com/bKW4D52.png

https://i.imgur.com/rBCKVTQ.png

18z GFS makes a borderline hurricane out of 40/70, and then 3 systems including 2 majors behind it.

I think the GFS might be too aggressive with these systems. Hilda might become a major though. Also, if the system forms that the GFS shows about a week from now, it could be the last one for a while. I think the Atlantic will probably start to take over at that point (although I will not be surprised if the models do not show this happening).

[cycloneye]

There are 7 systems from start to finish on the 12z GFS run.

[Yellow Evan]

https://i.imgur.com/BmN9vNt.png

https://i.imgur.com/bKW4D52.png

https://i.imgur.com/rBCKVTQ.png

18z GFS makes a borderline hurricane out of 40/70, and then 3 systems including 2 majors behind it.

I think the GFS might be too aggressive with these systems. Hilda might become a major though. Also, if the system forms that the GFS shows about a week from now, it could be the last one for a while. I think the Atlantic will probably start to take over at that point (although I will not be surprised if the models do not show this happening).

The GFS is overdoing the -VP setup as I’ve said many times. I’d expect about half as much activity as actually shown.

[Sciencerocks]

What system will receive the next name??? T.d 9 or Invest 91e.

[AlphaToOmega]

The 30-day SOI average has dropped from 16.57 to 15.75.

[aspen]

The current activity in the EPac is like a multi-car wreck. All three systems are too close to each other, with Hilda dominating over 9E and 91E — systems it might swallow up in a few days. Hilda is also not doing great due to shear. These storms are all too close together for anything but Hilda to be anything of significance over the next few days.

Maybe the system that could form early next week will have better luck, but -ENSO conditions are not kind to EPac systems this year.

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS015, EP, E, , , , , 76, 2021, DB, O, 2021073112, 9999999999, , 015, , , , GENESIS, , EP762021

[cycloneye]

GENESIS015, EP, E, , , , , 76, 2021, DB, O, 2021073112, 9999999999, , 015, , , , GENESIS, , EP762021

92E soon and I envision will be for the powerful hurricane that GFS develops starting on the 5th.

[gatorcane]

Wowza

[Category5Kaiju]

So it looks like the TD west of Hilda will not become a storm as projected anymore

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011430
TWSEP

Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 1 2021

For the eastern North Pacific, east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Four tropical cyclones formed in the month of July in the eastern
Pacific basin. Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Guillermo formed
near the middle of the month, while Hurricane Hilda and Tropical
Depression Nine-E formed near the end of July. None of the cyclones
affected land. Hurricane Felicia rapidly intensified and became a
category 4 hurricane.

The formation of four tropical cyclones, including two hurricanes
and one major hurricane is near the long-term average for July. The
number of named storms (8) in the basin so far in 2021 is above the
long-term average through July (6.3). In terms of Accumulated
Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of
tropical storms and hurricanes, the season to date is near the
average of the past 30 years.

Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?sea ... basin=epac

Summary Table

Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Andres 9-11 May 40*
TS Blanca 30 May- 4 Jun 60
TS Carlos 12-16 Jun 50
TS Dolores 18-20 Jun 70
H Enrique 25-30 Jun 90
H Felicia 14-20 Jul 145
TS Guillermo 17-20 Jul 60
H Hilda 30 Jul- 85
TD Nine-E 30 Jul- 1 Aug 30
---------------------------------------------------

* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has major after major to end its run:

[cycloneye]

3 mayors wont verify.