Kingarabian wrote:Even though the MJO signal per RMM was very weak in 2017, it was at least not in the Atlantic inactive phase for the month of August and most of September. That in itself means the MJO is actually playing a role in enhanced TC activity. This will also be true in about 2 weeks from now. In terms of Climo, the MJO is very weak during the summer months and even through September, compared to late fall and early winter. it takes very little MJO amplitude (which is easier to see on hovmollers than RMM during these months) to trigger TCG.
The current MJO event over the Pacific is actually much stronger than normal considering the time of year, and if it ends up in the Atlantic, we should expect a big uptick in activity similar to what we're currently seeing in the EPAC.
This is why I am very bullish for August. The high amplitude of the MJO was shown in June and July: four tropical storms formed in a 20-day period, and then nothing formed. I expect a very active, impactful August.