2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

Hello SFL…

https://i.postimg.cc/5tR9cJBx/642-AAC62-754-A-41-BE-A464-3-F78343-C21-FD.gif

Model Hurricane into SFL is always the official start to the active part of the hurricane season!

If it didn’t impact big islands might have been a major!

[Category5Kaiju]

Hello SFL…

https://i.postimg.cc/5tR9cJBx/642-AAC62-754-A-41-BE-A464-3-F78343-C21-FD.gif

Model Hurricane into SFL is always the official start to the active part of the hurricane season!

If it didn’t impact big islands might have been a major!

Florida Strait systems under the right conditions can actually really get going, given the water temperatures there especially. Irma, 1935 Labor Day, and Donna are some examples of this; however, you are right in that the narrow space with the Bahamas on one end and Cuba/Hispanola on the other make it somewhat necessary that a storm's path is juuust right enough that it stays over the water and is able to intensify as a result. Threading the needle, as they say

[AutoPenalti]

lol at that intensity jump on approach to SFL

[toad strangler]

12z Euro has some shenanigans going on and all BEFORE the BELL TOLLS on 8/20.

[AutoPenalti]

What the hell is THAT...

[crownweather]

https://i.imgur.com/kSZSW3E.png

What the hell is THAT...

That looks to be the outcome from what is now a tropical wave still over central Africa. Should splash down early next week.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/kSZSW3E.png

What the hell is THAT...

And King Euro hinting at it? That’s alarming, we should keep an eye out for sure

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/kSZSW3E.png

What the hell is THAT...

That second wave isn't gonna come off that high that’s euro bias.

[Spacecoast]

Euro ensembles have been showing activity for last couple of runs.
(one member ramps up intensity and tracks N)



Navgem Op:


I believe UK is showing something as well

[Stormybajan]

https://i.imgur.com/kSZSW3E.png

What the hell is THAT...

Its the Irma of tropical waves

[Category5Kaiju]

Based on the latest Euro, the system in the Caribbean is actually what interests me more than the big wave off Africa imho

[Category5Kaiju]

Also the latest GFS shows incessant EPAC action and pretty much nothing up to the run’s end in the Atlantic. I personally think that’s very hard to believe

[gatorcane]

Hello SFL…

https://i.postimg.cc/5tR9cJBx/642-AAC62-754-A-41-BE-A464-3-F78343-C21-FD.gif

Model Hurricane into SFL is always the official start to the active part of the hurricane season!

If it didn’t impact big islands might have been a major!

Florida Strait systems under the right conditions can actually really get going, given the water temperatures there especially. Irma, 1935 Labor Day, and Donna are some examples of this; however, you are right in that the narrow space with the Bahamas on one end and Cuba/Hispanola on the other make it somewhat necessary that a storm's path is juuust right enough that it stays over the water and is able to intensify as a result. Threading the needle, as they say

Does anybody take the ICON seriously? Not sure which is worse, the ICON or the NAVGEM

[aspen]

Model Hurricane into SFL is always the official start to the active part of the hurricane season!

If it didn’t impact big islands might have been a major!

Florida Strait systems under the right conditions can actually really get going, given the water temperatures there especially. Irma, 1935 Labor Day, and Donna are some examples of this; however, you are right in that the narrow space with the Bahamas on one end and Cuba/Hispanola on the other make it somewhat necessary that a storm's path is juuust right enough that it stays over the water and is able to intensify as a result. Threading the needle, as they say

Does anybody take the ICON seriously? Not sure which is worse, the ICON or the NAVGEM

The blind squirrel finds the nut every once in a while. At the very least, the ICON has found that nut a few times (like when it was the first model to correctly show Dorian passing to the east of PR and surviving).

The NAVGEM is still searching.

[Jr0d]

Florida Strait systems under the right conditions can actually really get going, given the water temperatures there especially. Irma, 1935 Labor Day, and Donna are some examples of this; however, you are right in that the narrow space with the Bahamas on one end and Cuba/Hispanola on the other make it somewhat necessary that a storm's path is juuust right enough that it stays over the water and is able to intensify as a result. Threading the needle, as they say

Does anybody take the ICON seriously? Not sure which is worse, the ICON or the NAVGEM

The blind squirrel finds the nut every once in a while. At the very least, the ICON has found that nut a few times (like when it was the first model to correctly show Dorian passing to the east of PR and surviving).

The NAVGEM is still searching.

The ICON has also sniffed out development in the past when the GFS and EURO missed it.

[AtlanticWind]

I not sure the GFS and Euro have been much better than Navgem and ICON on sniffing out genesis lately.
But they are not close to GFS and Euro on tracks of developed systems.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh boy, the latest GFS and GEFS really love the 3rd AOI (most recently marked AOI)

[Shell Mound]

Oh boy, the latest GFS and GEFS really love the 3rd AOI (most recently marked AOI)

...and meanwhile, the 00Z EPS shows absolutely nothing through the end of the forecast-period, despite showing a very active EPAC, including a possible MH.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423962107515752454



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423962114633478148



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423964587263729670

[tolakram]

Oh boy, the latest GFS and GEFS really love the 3rd AOI (most recently marked AOI)

...and meanwhile, the 00Z EPS shows absolutely nothing through the end of the forecast-period, despite showing a very active EPAC, including a possible MH.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423962107515752454
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423962114633478148
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423964587263729670

Here's last Saturdays run of the GFS. Where are all those storms? Using the GFS as an example of possible EPAC activity is never a good idea IMO.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh boy, the latest GFS and GEFS really love the 3rd AOI (most recently marked AOI)

...and meanwhile, the 00Z EPS shows absolutely nothing through the end of the forecast-period, despite showing a very active EPAC, including a possible MH.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423962107515752454
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423962114633478148
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423964587263729670

Here's last Saturdays run of the GFS. Where are all those storms? Using the GFS as an example of possible EPAC activity is never a good idea IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/R8Mc4q6.gif

Wow, that’s just…embarrassing I mean, that looks to be the GFS EPAC bias in full effect