ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Pretty good Burst

[Nimbus]

last few visible images. the llc is just on the edge of these towers that are firing off. let the excitement begin.

Should be in radar range in the next several hours. so tracking the center wont be too bad overnight.

https://i.ibb.co/VV51GLz/Capture.png

Saw part of the low level cloud structure near there but there also was some serious low level inflow streaming in from the south that made the circulation look elongated. If this isn't a sharp wave on the ASCAT and convection blossoms over a closed center Barbados needs to know.

the circ was very clear the last few hours.

but yeah any large burst could pull or reform the center at this stage.

the current burst has some good inflow cloud lines.

Convective burst is far enough north that we would be worried about Martinique and St Lucia if the ASCAT shows a closed circ.

[Blown Away]

last few visible images. the llc is just on the edge of these towers that are firing off. let the excitement begin.

Should be in radar range in the next several hours. so tracking the center wont be too bad overnight.

https://i.ibb.co/VV51GLz/Capture.png

Saw part of the low level cloud structure near there but there also was some serious low level inflow streaming in from the south that made the circulation look elongated. If this isn't a sharp wave on the ASCAT and convection blossoms over a closed center Barbados needs to know.

the circ was very clear the last few hours.

but yeah any large burst could pull or reform the center at this stage.

the current burst has some good inflow cloud lines.

Let's see if this burst (@13.5N/54.5W) can sustain...

[Aric Dunn]

Saw part of the low level cloud structure near there but there also was some serious low level inflow streaming in from the south that made the circulation look elongated. If this isn't a sharp wave on the ASCAT and convection blossoms over a closed center Barbados needs to know.

the circ was very clear the last few hours.

but yeah any large burst could pull or reform the center at this stage.

the current burst has some good inflow cloud lines.

Convective burst is far enough north that we would be worried about Martinique and St Lucia if the ASCAT shows a closed circ.

you are assuming it follows the models wnw motion.. so far it has refused to move wnw.. steady west the last 24 hours.

[Blown Away]

the circ was very clear the last few hours.

but yeah any large burst could pull or reform the center at this stage.

the current burst has some good inflow cloud lines.

Convective burst is far enough north that we would be worried about Martinique and St Lucia if the ASCAT shows a closed circ.

you are assuming it follows the models wnw motion.. so far it has refused to move wnw.. steady west the last 24 hours.

It appears to be on or slightly N of 12z Euro. If Euro is correct 94L should slow down tonight and move more WNW.

[Aric Dunn]

Convective burst is far enough north that we would be worried about Martinique and St Lucia if the ASCAT shows a closed circ.

you are assuming it follows the models wnw motion.. so far it has refused to move wnw.. steady west the last 24 hours.

It appears to be on or slightly N of 12z Euro. If Euro is correct 94L should slow down tonight and move more WNW.

north ? you mean south and west. all models take it north of barbados. it is going to very hard to get that far north unless it reforms. the 18z best track is so far east its silly.

[AtlanticWind]

I think the center is close to the blowup of convection, when I look at loop it looks to me to be moving close to wnw.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This invest is pretty good looking. It has lots of moisture enveloping it. lots of convective activity surrounding a center is indicative of a developing system. I think the TWO will raise this to a 60/60 at 8:00 Pm EDT.

[cycloneye]

He is always a showman.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1424493927718076423

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan video.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/hVC2StjzWBU[/youtube]

[AtlanticWind]

Levi Cowan video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVC2StjzWBU

Good as always , but not too much with didnt know.

[Spacecoast]

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis



This graphic combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis. The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations.

In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to note that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics.

[toad strangler]

Levi Cowan video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVC2StjzWBU

Good as always , but not too much with didnt know.

He did mention the possibility of better conditions post islands..

[InfernoFlameCat]

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

[url]https://i.ibb.co/NmjVDLG/ecmf2f.jpg [/url]

That looks like a 20knot depression to me. To be clear it’s not though.

[AubreyStorm]

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

[url]https://i.ibb.co/NmjVDLG/ecmf2f.jpg [/url]

That looks like a 20knot depression to me. To be clear it’s not though.

Hmmmmmm TD?

[toad strangler]

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

[url]https://i.ibb.co/NmjVDLG/ecmf2f.jpg [/url]

That looks like a 20knot depression to me. To be clear it’s not though.

Huh?

[Category5Kaiju]

It does have some spin, although I am not sure if it's a TD yet

[Nimbus]

See if they weigh this SCAT for the 8PM.
Surface evidence is better than radar since above 10,000 feet is mid level.
Levi did mention the humidity is much lower outside the moisture envelope.

[Stormybajan]

94L totally tricked me, here I thought, YES some heat relief with some rain tomorrow but literally all of the convection heading for the island has just vanished in the last 2 hours. In any case, lets see if this tiny blowup near 13.5N can be the wave's starting point in organization

[tolakram]

TPW loop.