ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

If I were a betting man.. here is where the llc is. strom motion below provides the needed data as it has gotten closer to the radar site. Another covective burst should get the engines running better and better.

[TallyTracker]

By passing just north of Barbados, we’ll be able to see if this has managed to close off a circulation. If it has, then I don’t see any reason not to classify it as a TD.

Looking ahead, this reminds me a lot of Chris 2006. Same time of year and clipping the islands. Was forecast to become a major hurricane but the TUTT stopped it at 65 mph and killed it. I’m leaning toward a similar scenario with this one. Modest strengthening followed by decapitation by shear or dissipation over Greater Antilles.

[Aric Dunn]

Ascat b accounting for ambiguities... very likely closed.

just a small system and ASCAT, as you know, has issues with small systems.

Recon would likely find a TD

[abajan]

Surface analysis shows a closed low.
https://i.postimg.cc/zBVkw3cL/USA-06Z.gif

Not the 12z analysis, though.

But I notice the ridge is getting stronger. (The 1016 isobar is further south in the 12z vs 06z.) So, southward adjustments to the track can be expected.

[BobHarlem]

Long running radar loop out of Barbados https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?649

[Blown Away]

94L seems to be gaining latitude and/or circulation is being pulled closer to the pulsing convection to the NE... Interested to see if 12z models move towards PR and skim N coast of Hispaniola...

[SFLcane]

Ascat b accounting for ambiguities... very likely closed.

just a small system and ASCAT, as you know, has issues with small systems.

Recon would likely find a TD

https://i.ibb.co/2yW1x1k/Capture.gif

Always a judgment call as you know.

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[AutoPenalti]

At this point PTC advisories should be issued IMO.

[Cat5James]

Going to pass thru the Herbert Box.

[tolakram]

Hebert, pronounced AY-bear

I get this wrong every year so I looked it up.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks to me like there is a center that is south of the main blob, but it looks to rotating up into the convection so there might be some vorticies rotating around a common one. Also of note. Kevin the the EPAC is experiencing a real uptick in easterly shear. Perhaps the MJO has moved into the Atlantic side now.

[AutoPenalti]

This needs to pick up latitude quickly if it's going to survive past the islands.

[gatorcane]

Not really concerned with this one for South Florida because of land interaction and shear which should be in place over Florida and the Bahamas later this week. Will keep an eye on it but maybe we will get some decent cooling rains this weekend which would be nice.

[Stormybajan]

Looks like models are locking in on a landfall on Dominica early tomorrow morning as a TD or weak storm, after that most of them rip 94L to bits over Puerto Rico and DR

[GCANE]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert posted

[Nimbus]

This needs to pick up latitude quickly if it's going to survive past the islands.

Dominica will be on the strong side of the circulation but Martinique is on extrapolated motion track if it doesn't close off and pull away from the trade wind Intertropical Convergence Zone.

[AubreyStorm]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert posted

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nVdQSjyz/al942021-21080906.gif [/url]

So, it’s imminent TD soon right?

[tolakram]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert posted

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nVdQSjyz/al942021-21080906.gif [/url]

So, it’s imminent TD soon right?

Better than 50/50, but sometimes nothing happens.

I suspect NHC will go 90 to 100% at 2PM, maybe a PTC?? I could see this falling apart, I could also see it making a run towards a TS.

[Sciencerocks]

Probably deserving.