ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#221 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:16 am

If I were a betting man.. here is where the llc is. strom motion below provides the needed data as it has gotten closer to the radar site. Another covective burst should get the engines running better and better.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#222 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:25 am

By passing just north of Barbados, we’ll be able to see if this has managed to close off a circulation. If it has, then I don’t see any reason not to classify it as a TD.

Looking ahead, this reminds me a lot of Chris 2006. Same time of year and clipping the islands. Was forecast to become a major hurricane but the TUTT stopped it at 65 mph and killed it. I’m leaning toward a similar scenario with this one. Modest strengthening followed by decapitation by shear or dissipation over Greater Antilles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#223 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:28 am

Ascat b accounting for ambiguities... very likely closed.

just a small system and ASCAT, as you know, has issues with small systems.

Recon would likely find a TD

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#224 Postby abajan » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:28 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:Surface analysis shows a closed low.
https://i.postimg.cc/zBVkw3cL/USA-06Z.gif

Not the 12z analysis, though.

But I notice the ridge is getting stronger. (The 1016 isobar is further south in the 12z vs 06z.) So, southward adjustments to the track can be expected.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#225 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:47 am

Long running radar loop out of Barbados https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?649
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#226 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:51 am

Image
94L seems to be gaining latitude and/or circulation is being pulled closer to the pulsing convection to the NE... Interested to see if 12z models move towards PR and skim N coast of Hispaniola...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#227 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:56 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Ascat b accounting for ambiguities... very likely closed.

just a small system and ASCAT, as you know, has issues with small systems.

Recon would likely find a TD

https://i.ibb.co/2yW1x1k/Capture.gif


Always a judgment call as you know.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#228 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:07 am

Saved loop

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#229 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:10 am

At this point PTC advisories should be issued IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#230 Postby Cat5James » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Going to pass thru the Herbert Box.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#231 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:16 am

Hebert, pronounced AY-bear

I get this wrong every year so I looked it up. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#232 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:19 am

Looks to me like there is a center that is south of the main blob, but it looks to rotating up into the convection so there might be some vorticies rotating around a common one. Also of note. Kevin the the EPAC is experiencing a real uptick in easterly shear. Perhaps the MJO has moved into the Atlantic side now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#233 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:23 am

This needs to pick up latitude quickly if it's going to survive past the islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#234 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:23 am

Not really concerned with this one for South Florida because of land interaction and shear which should be in place over Florida and the Bahamas later this week. Will keep an eye on it but maybe we will get some decent cooling rains this weekend which would be nice. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#235 Postby Stormybajan » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:32 am

Looks like models are locking in on a landfall on Dominica early tomorrow morning as a TD or weak storm, after that most of them rip 94L to bits over Puerto Rico and DR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#236 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:34 am

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert posted

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#237 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:43 am

AutoPenalti wrote:This needs to pick up latitude quickly if it's going to survive past the islands.


Dominica will be on the strong side of the circulation but Martinique is on extrapolated motion track if it doesn't close off and pull away from the trade wind Intertropical Convergence Zone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#238 Postby AubreyStorm » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:47 am

GCANE wrote:Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert posted

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nVdQSjyz/al942021-21080906.gif [/url]


So, it’s imminent TD soon right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#239 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:50 am

AubreyStorm wrote:
GCANE wrote:Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert posted

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nVdQSjyz/al942021-21080906.gif [/url]


So, it’s imminent TD soon right?


Better than 50/50, but sometimes nothing happens.

I suspect NHC will go 90 to 100% at 2PM, maybe a PTC?? I could see this falling apart, I could also see it making a run towards a TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#240 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:53 am

Image

Probably deserving.
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