ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

longer saved loop

[alienstorm]

I would say the MLC possible LLC is up further north

[wxman57]

12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.

[AutoPenalti]

12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.

Seems a lot slower and weaker.

[Cat5James]

12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.

Seems a lot slower and weaker.

They both came in stronger, not weaker

[MGC]

Having my doubts that PTC6 closes off today. Looks like the dry air is winning the battle. Land interaction should further inhibit development tomorrow and Wednesday. Once the disturbance reaches the Atlantic off Cuba perhaps a defined circulation can establish itself......MGC

[AxaltaRacing24]

12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.

Seems a lot slower and weaker.

Nope. Actually stronger.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Having my doubts that PTC6 closes off today. Looks like the dry air is winning the battle. Land interaction should further inhibit development tomorrow and Wednesday. Once the disturbance reaches the Atlantic off Cuba perhaps a defined circulation can establish itself......MGC

Doesn't seem that way to me currently. It has just under a day to close off before land interaction, and it appears to be currently closing off a bit more north.

[Hurricaneman]

And if that low forms there and it moves at it’s current heading it would landfall just east of Ponce, PR

[AutoPenalti]

12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.

Seems a lot slower and weaker.

Nope. Actually stronger.

https://imgur.com/NZdq4AW

I was looking at the wrong run. My bad.

[wxman57]

Levi has a new video out on PTC Six: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQzmCrZ6BUw

[alienstorm]

Is the plane going to Aruba LOL

[BobHarlem]

This system will probably struggle to get going until it reaches about 74W.

[AlphaToOmega]

[Cat5James]

The fact that it is not tightly organized will work to its benefit in surviving Hispañola

[Jr0d]

The fact that it is not tightly organized will work to its benefit in surviving Hispañola

Not only that, but it could help to close of the low as we have seen with weaker systems that just miss the mountains.

It looks like the 'core' will pass just north of the mountains, which is a good spot for the terrain to help.close it off.

[skyline385]

12Z HWRF stronger than last run but probably still very inaccurate as the system still doesn't have a well defined center and recon just got the data to feed in for the next runs...

[ElectricStorm]

My guess is this doesn't so much until after it clears the islands. That being said however I think there's a chance it spins up quickly once it does so. Might be looking at a mid-strong TS coming in

[Craters]

So close…some of those new convective bursts should help close this off for good. Not sure if dry air is an issue because the structure of the storm on satellite looks good.

Dry air is not an issue for this system. There is very little Sharan dust in the Atlantic.

Saharan dust is not a requirement for dry air.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z HWRF stronger than last run but probably still very inaccurate as the system still doesn't have a well defined center and recon just got the data to feed in for the next runs...

The 12Z HWRF assimilated the recon data. It's initialization looked quite reasonable to me. Shows a tilted vortex. However, the rest of the run is debatable. I wouldn't totally rule it out, but it doesn't seem like the most likely scenario.