
ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
longer saved loop


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M a r k
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- alienstorm
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
I would say the MLC possible LLC is up further north


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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.
Seems a lot slower and weaker.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.
Seems a lot slower and weaker.
They both came in stronger, not weaker
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- MGC
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Having my doubts that PTC6 closes off today. Looks like the dry air is winning the battle. Land interaction should further inhibit development tomorrow and Wednesday. Once the disturbance reaches the Atlantic off Cuba perhaps a defined circulation can establish itself......MGC
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.
Seems a lot slower and weaker.
Nope. Actually stronger.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
MGC wrote:Having my doubts that PTC6 closes off today. Looks like the dry air is winning the battle. Land interaction should further inhibit development tomorrow and Wednesday. Once the disturbance reaches the Atlantic off Cuba perhaps a defined circulation can establish itself......MGC
Doesn't seem that way to me currently. It has just under a day to close off before land interaction, and it appears to be currently closing off a bit more north.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
And if that low forms there and it moves at it’s current heading it would landfall just east of Ponce, PR
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS & ICON like Miami better than the Keys for landfall. Just one run, not a trend.
Seems a lot slower and weaker.
Nope. Actually stronger.
https://imgur.com/NZdq4AW
I was looking at the wrong run. My bad.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Levi has a new video out on PTC Six: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQzmCrZ6BUw
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- alienstorm
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Is the plane going to Aruba LOL
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
This system will probably struggle to get going until it reaches about 74W.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
The fact that it is not tightly organized will work to its benefit in surviving Hispañola
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Cat5James wrote:The fact that it is not tightly organized will work to its benefit in surviving Hispañola
Not only that, but it could help to close of the low as we have seen with weaker systems that just miss the mountains.
It looks like the 'core' will pass just north of the mountains, which is a good spot for the terrain to help.close it off.
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- skyline385
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ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
12Z HWRF stronger than last run but probably still very inaccurate as the system still doesn't have a well defined center and recon just got the data to feed in for the next runs...
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
My guess is this doesn't so much until after it clears the islands. That being said however I think there's a chance it spins up quickly once it does so. Might be looking at a mid-strong TS coming in
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
AlphaToOmega wrote:aspen wrote:So close…some of those new convective bursts should help close this off for good. Not sure if dry air is an issue because the structure of the storm on satellite looks good.
Dry air is not an issue for this system. There is very little Sharan dust in the Atlantic.
Saharan dust is not a requirement for dry air.
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- SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:12Z HWRF stronger than last run but probably still very inaccurate as the system still doesn't have a well defined center and recon just got the data to feed in for the next runs...
The 12Z HWRF assimilated the recon data. It's initialization looked quite reasonable to me. Shows a tilted vortex. However, the rest of the run is debatable. I wouldn't totally rule it out, but it doesn't seem like the most likely scenario.
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