wxman57 wrote:
It doesn't matter this far out. Ask me when it's about 12 hours away and I'll estimate whether it will go north or south of Key West. For now, I'm thinking north.
North is good for me. Obviously way too far out to make a reasonable guess.
As what seems to be the case with most storms approaching Florida from the east, we will have to see what impact Hispaniola has. If it makes it past intact, this favors a further north track, if it gets shredded by the mountains then we will have a much weaker system or even open wave further south...though it appears the models want to pull the storm back together around the Florida Straits in this scenario.
Also with only one short recon mission, there is not much data to be added. Missions every 6 hours begin tonight, that extra data will not be helpful for the models until Wednesday night...so for mine and the rest of Florida's interests we wont have a good forecast until late tomorrow or Thursday, though I think it is safe to say Florida will be impacted.