ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Kohlecane]

when are they gonna travel towards 16.5N and 60.5W area lol

[ElectricStorm]

My early guess for this is that we're going to see a remnant low entering the gulf, with a chance to so something there. Still very early of course, but that's just my personal opinion.

If this ends up in the gulf I think it will be a big problem

[aspen]

when are they gonna travel towards 16.5N and 60.5W area lol

Never, because the mission just finished.

[wxman57]

Wouldn't rule out Grace staying weaker initially and tracking south of Cuba (remember Laura?). Lots of track uncertainty depending on how well Grace organizes over the next 24-36 hrs. Grace will be a problem. Wish I could just issue a 5-day forecast like the NHC vs. a 7-day.

[AutoPenalti]

when are they gonna travel towards 16.5N and 60.5W area lol

They aren’t

[Category5Kaiju]

Or the 1900 Galveston hurricane?

[skyline385]

How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.

EPAC did have the MJO over it while it was still ENSO neutral with warm coastal waters but yes otherwise it is weird how much activity it is seeing. I am actually worried for the Atlantic if it ramps up to the levels of EPAC in the coming months...

[InfernoFlameCat]

If grace misses the islands, north or south, it spells trouble.

[weeniepatrol]

How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.

Because it's August 14th

[tolakram]

Radar page: https://meteofrance.gp/fr/images-radar/mosaique-antilles

[toad strangler]

How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.

Because it's August 14th

It's simply mesmerizing that we go through this year after year after year

[Blown Away]

Clear strong vorticity just E of Barbuda near 17.6N moving @WNW. Seems recon estimating a LLC much farther S below 16N. Structurally Grace doesn’t appear in good shape. IMO I don’t think we will see anything but a remnant low go 20+ mph essentially due W from @16N per 18z all the way to the GOM, where it could come back to life.

[Sciencerocks]

[Cat5James]

That blob of convection with Grace sure looks like its flying NW on IR the past hour... anyone else see that?

[tolakram]

The good news is that we should be able to see any LLC soon, if convection continues to dissipate as we approach DMIN.

[sma10]

How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.

Because it's August 14th

It's simply mesmerizing that we go through this year after year after year

Right?

Meanwhile, current look of Grace, resembles pretty much what the 12z GFS suggests we would see this afternoon. The same GFS run, BTW that brings TS winds to PR and DR, borderline hurricane winds to the middle keys, and major hurricane to TX coast.

[SoupBone]

Wouldn't rule out Grace staying weaker initially and tracking south of Cuba (remember Laura?). Lots of track uncertainty depending on how well Grace organizes over the next 24-36 hrs. Grace will be a problem. Wish I could just issue a 5-day forecast like the NHC vs. a 7-day.

Can you expound on this? More organized takes what track versus a more weak system?

[Blown Away]

The good news is that we should be able to see any LLC soon, if convection continues to dissipate as we approach DMIN.

TropicalTidbits has 18z position at 15.8N/59.9W which is way SW of convection and agree it should be exposed very soon as convection moves NW and LLC moving W.

[ouragans]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[tolakram]

14, 16, 18, and the very top is 20N

saved loop