ATL: GRACE - Models

[SoupBone]

So the Euro drops Grace and poofs her. I don't even see any remnants.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I am tending to lean to the Hwrf for path( intensity who knows) because I think Grace is moving more wnw
and is going to clear Hispanola.

We are going to find out real soon who is right.

Just to clarify I dont think its going to clear by as much as the HWRF is showing
Think its going to ride just offshore of the big Island.
But this a close call and definitely would not be suprised if it burys itself in Hispanola.

If you see a reformation N or Puerto Rico, or see it barely clip from the E, watch out. If not, then a GFS scenario comes more into play.

[AtlanticWind]

https://i.postimg.cc/qMFrh9h8/hwrf-sat-IR-07-L-20.png
Welp, the HWRF is definitely entertaining.

Its been wrong so many times, it will be right at some point.

Hope this is not the time

[Cpv17]

So the Euro drops Grace and poofs her. I don't even see any remnants.

Should you be surprised? It’s the Euro.

[kevin]

The global models seem to dissipate or severely weaken Grace due to a meeting with Hispaniola. Now let's see what the hurricane models will do, HMON 06z just started.

[Nimbus]

That ASCAT rules out rapid intensification.
I suppose the big islands might eventually split the system and close off some of the energy to the north.

[kevin]

06z HMON dissipates Grace after a landfall with Hispaniola. Seems like a Hispaniola landfall is becoming increasingly likely. Would be favorable for the US of course, but a horrible scenario for Haiti especially. Just days after the earthquake they would have TS (remnants) to deal with and the latest euro run even brings more than 200 mm of rain to certain parts of the country.

[kevin]

06z HWRF however still jumps north of Hispaniola, hurricane at +48 hrs. Tbh I find this a bit too crazy to believe considering the other models, but who knows. This could be quite a run.

[aspen]

06z HWRF however still jumps north of Hispaniola, hurricane at +48 hrs. Tbh I find this a bit too crazy to believe considering the other models, but who knows. This could be quite a run.

https://i.imgur.com/nxjQ4FP.png

In order for that run to verify, we would need to see a significant shift to the NW today and a massive blowup of convection by tonight. This is probably just another popcorn run. The HWRF does have quite the north bias with its tracks.

[tolakram]

How in the world does the HWRF get this thing moving rapidly NW?

[tolakram]

6z Euro

[aspen]

The 06z HWRF-P run for 96L shows a much more believable outcome for Grace: it remains weak while traveling over the GAs, has a center relocation into the northern coast of Cuba/FL straits, and emerges in the Gulf as a weak TS/TD before intensifying again.

In other words, Laura 2.0

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[SoupBone]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/d7hb8jt.png

Why the crazy eyes, that's a pretty reasonable solution. A minimal system hitting with Texas.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/d7hb8jt.png

Why the crazy eyes, that's a pretty reasonable solution. A minimal system hitting with Texas.

I wouldn't call that solution "minimal". What the GEFS is showing is that Grace could struggle over Hispaniola & Cuba and still become a potent system in the GOMEX.

[toad strangler]

I view any post GA's interaction model output with a whole one pound package of Celtic Sea Salt

[NDG]

06z Euro ensembles.
If it tracks north of Cuba chances of getting strong is greater, will have better UL conditions than what Fred had.

[pgoss11]

06z Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/1z5L5T4.png

Wow! 96L has interesting tracks there

[Senobia]

06z Euro ensembles.
If it tracks north of Cuba chances of getting strong is greater, will have better UL conditions than what Fred had.

https://i.imgur.com/1z5L5T4.png

How many models are showing this GOM solution? I think I saw this one and GFS.

[SoupBone]

06z Euro ensembles.
If it tracks north of Cuba chances of getting strong is greater, will have better UL conditions than what Fred had.

https://i.imgur.com/1z5L5T4.png

Funny that the Euro last night completely lost Grace. And it doesn't have the potent high that the GFS thinks will be in the Gulf.