2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1429039499208761344

The GEFS looks to have woken up with WCAR/BOC/WGOM development which aligns with the CMC/GEPS/EPS.I don’t buy the GFS Florida storm in fantasy land which looks like more of an October track not to mention an outlier.

https://i.postimg.cc/8CWPmS7J/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh138-204.gif

GEFS Ensemble has been very consistent on this idea as well as some ECENS ensemble coming on board on some runs as well. I would prefer following ensemble data as it provides a more broad picture instead of just one model run.

Agreed. The other point is that the GFS Florida storm at 300+ hours is another storm that the model forms after forming a storm which heads into the BOC and landfalls in Mexico like the models are doing. The Florida storm will probably be gone in the next run. Bottom-line: WCAR/BOC/WGOM development looks increasingly possible.

[aspen]

Models don’t really like the 0/20 AOI, but the ensembles suggest the wave behind it will have a better shot. All of the operational and ensemble models show Gulf development next week, and seeing how quickly Grace blew up into a 110 kt major, future Julian will certainly be one to watch. If it remains very broad like some models show, it’ll probably just be a sloppy rainy TS. If it ends up as a regular compact storm, watch out.

[SoupBone]

Dumb question, but on TropicalTidbits, what settings do I use for the ensembles that can produce a meaningful graphic? I don't see much at the various settings I've tried. Or do I need to look for a paid service?

[Clearcloudz]

Dumb question, but on TropicalTidbits, what settings do I use for the ensembles that can produce a meaningful graphic? I don't see much at the various settings I've tried. Or do I need to look for a paid service?

On the ensemble page click on lower dynamics and then all the way at the bottom is ensemble mlsps.

[Cpv17]

Dumb question, but on TropicalTidbits, what settings do I use for the ensembles that can produce a meaningful graphic? I don't see much at the various settings I've tried. Or do I need to look for a paid service?

The 6z GEFS isn’t pretty for southeast Texas I can tell you that much. Even has a few strong members into Louisiana. The op is completely different, what gives?

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, the 6z GEFS ensemble… the strength of some of those members moving into Texas gives me chills. The signal starts in the southern Caribbean in only about 5 days.

[Clearcloudz]

06Z gfs ensemble run.

[Cpv17]

The 12z ICON looks like it wants to develop something in the central Gulf at the end of its run.

[SoupBone]

The GFS has been pretty consistent in sending something into Central Mexico now for at least 5-6 runs.

[IcyTundra]

https://imgur.com/a/ZvvDH5A

https://imgur.com/a/xIEgg2V


12Z CMC with a 980 MB hurricane into Matagorda Bay with a massive wind field.

[Clearcloudz]

https://imgur.com/a/ZvvDH5A

https://imgur.com/a/xIEgg2V


12Z CMC with a 980 MB hurricane into Matagorda Bay with a massive wind field.

lol that would be a nightmare scenario for Houston and Galveston areas.

[Cpv17]

The GFS has been pretty consistent in sending something into Central Mexico now for at least 5-6 runs.

A lot of other guidance suggest something further north.

[SoupBone]

The GFS has been pretty consistent in sending something into Central Mexico now for at least 5-6 runs.

A lot of other guidance suggest something further north.

I'm posting about that actual run. It's been the most consistent thus far. Though according to Wxman, it performed very poorly for Grace.

[SoupBone]

The GEFS is sending some energy toward Louisiana, but most are coming toward Mexico and Southern Texas on the 29th. BTW, why are we the only ones posting about this?

[Cpv17]

The GEFS is sending some energy toward Louisiana, but most are coming toward Mexico and Southern Texas on the 29th. BTW, why are we the only ones posting about this?

Because it’s not an east coast or Florida threat. Not many members on here from Texas it seems like.

[SoupBone]

So what's interesting about the GEFS run is that as the models start to converge on the central Mexico coast on the 29th, they suddenly shift north and look to be heading toward Corpus Christi. Is that a trough digging or something?

[AnnularCane]

The GEFS is sending some energy toward Louisiana, but most are coming toward Mexico and Southern Texas on the 29th. BTW, why are we the only ones posting about this?

Because it’s not an east coast or Florida threat. Not many members on here from Texas it seems like.

There's a thread for Texas weather in USA and Caribbean weather, so there have to be a fair amount of Texans here. Although I don't know how many of them actually live near the coast.

[Cpv17]

The GEFS is sending some energy toward Louisiana, but most are coming toward Mexico and Southern Texas on the 29th. BTW, why are we the only ones posting about this?

Because it’s not an east coast or Florida threat. Not many members on here from Texas it seems like.

There's a thread for Texas weather in USA and Caribbean weather, so there have to be a fair amount of Texans here. Although I don't know how many of them actually live near the coast.

Yeah. Most of them are from the DFW area. But yeah there looks to be possibly a trough that could pull it north a bit.

[SoupBone]

Yeah it's odd. It begins heading WNW on the 29th, toward the central Mexican coast, then on the 30th starts to turn more NW, then ends with most members heading toward a Tex/Mex system. It's a slight tug that gets it up there but enough to take it from being a central Mexican threat to possibly a South Texas threat, with maybe a member or two as a Corpus threat.

[Cpv17]

Yeah it's odd. It begins heading WNW on the 29th, toward the central Mexican coast, then on the 30th starts to turn more NW, then ends with most members heading toward a Tex/Mex system. It's a slight tug that gets it up there but enough to take it from being a central Mexican threat to possibly a South Texas threat, with maybe a member or two as a Corpus threat.

It’ll change. Long way to go. Louisiana to Mexico needs to pay attention.