2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Astromanía]

GFS wants to kill me

[SoupBone]

Yeah it's odd. It begins heading WNW on the 29th, toward the central Mexican coast, then on the 30th starts to turn more NW, then ends with most members heading toward a Tex/Mex system. It's a slight tug that gets it up there but enough to take it from being a central Mexican threat to possibly a South Texas threat, with maybe a member or two as a Corpus threat.

It’ll change. Long way to go. Louisiana to Mexico needs to pay attention.

Oh I know, I'm just commenting on what actually tugs it more north toward the end of the run. Whatever it is (a trough?) is slight but enough to make the landfall much further north.

[Wampadawg]

I live in Houston area watching carefully

[KatDaddy]

It’s been awhile since I have posted. I am in Galveston County and will be watching the GOM closely during the upcoming week. Lots energy in the GOM.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660




Whatever enters the GOM will have a a lot of energy to work with.

[SoupBone]

Euro sends the system into the Corpus area (actually a little south of it closer to South Padre), sort of in line with the GEFS, but more north than the GFS. The difference is that the Euro has a more NW path versus the GEFS that hooks it at the last second.

[tolakram]

12z Euro

[IcyTundra]

We will probably see a new AOI in the W Carribean in the 5 day tropical outlook tomorrow night or on Monday.

[Cpv17]

It could miss its exit with that trough pulling outta the Great Lakes region and be trapped. Dang

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Whatever enters the GOM will have a a lot of energy to work with.

Ut oh is right. Here is the 12Z CMC:

[SoupBone]

It could miss its exit with that trough pulling outta the Great Lakes region and be trapped. Dang

It's pretty well inland on the Euro, but if it stalled there could dump a lot of rain in the San Antonio area. They definitely don't need that as it floods there pretty easily.

[IcyTundra]

CMC and ECMWF are more in line with the GEFS with a more northerly component to the track. Everyone from Mexico to Louisiana should keep an eye on this.

[hurricane2025]

Still long ways out

[SoupBone]

Still long ways out

No doubt. Lots of time for changes at this point. Still, to see so many models see "something", it's definitely worth looking at.

[Cpv17]

It could miss its exit with that trough pulling outta the Great Lakes region and be trapped. Dang

It's pretty well inland on the Euro, but if it stalled there could dump a lot of rain in the San Antonio area. They definitely don't need that as it floods there pretty easily.

From hour 216 to hour 240, it only moves maybe 100 miles, if that. Which would indicate about a 4mph movement.

[IcyTundra]

Still long ways out

True it is still a pretty long ways out but it is in that 7-10 day range where the models have consistently been hinting at development. Models typically aren't that accurate in that time frame but it isn't like this is 14+ days out. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

[captainbarbossa19]

If this thing develops and somehow pulls a Harvey or Imelda, I am not staying this time. I am out of here!

[Clearcloudz]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Whatever enters the GOM will have a a lot of energy to work with.

Ut oh is right. Here is the 12Z CMC:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fXhG0f8/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh120-240.gif

Signal is becoming stronger each model cycle that something will form and move towards somewhere in Texas as of now.

[SoupBone]

If this thing develops and somehow pulls a Harvey or Imelda, I am not staying this time. I am out of here!

Man, it's WAY too early to invoke those names.

And as a whole, more models as of now still show a Mexico to South Texas solution. Still time to watch and wait. Of course, that ridge/trough interaction will be key to whatever does form.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Whatever enters the GOM will have a a lot of energy to work with.

Ut oh is right. Here is the 12Z CMC:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fXhG0f8/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh120-240.gif

On the subject of “uh oh”, there’s a Cape Verde storm over on the right.

Seems like there’s a decent chance we’ll end the month off on another Gulf storm and a MDR long-tracker.