2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Astromanía
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 779
Age: 26
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
Location: Monterrey, N.L, México

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#761 Postby Astromanía » Sat Aug 21, 2021 12:52 pm

GFS wants to kill me
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#762 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 21, 2021 12:57 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Yeah it's odd. It begins heading WNW on the 29th, toward the central Mexican coast, then on the 30th starts to turn more NW, then ends with most members heading toward a Tex/Mex system. It's a slight tug that gets it up there but enough to take it from being a central Mexican threat to possibly a South Texas threat, with maybe a member or two as a Corpus threat.


It’ll change. Long way to go. Louisiana to Mexico needs to pay attention.


Oh I know, I'm just commenting on what actually tugs it more north toward the end of the run. Whatever it is (a trough?) is slight but enough to make the landfall much further north.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Wampadawg
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 238
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:28 am
Location: South Texas

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#763 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Aug 21, 2021 12:59 pm

I live in Houston area watching carefully
1 likes   
Harvey,Hanna,Beta,Texas Winter storm2021,Nicholas,Beryl

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#764 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Aug 21, 2021 1:23 pm

It’s been awhile since I have posted. I am in Galveston County and will be watching the GOM closely during the upcoming week. Lots energy in the GOM.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 540
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#765 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Aug 21, 2021 1:26 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660




Whatever enters the GOM will have a a lot of energy to work with.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#766 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 21, 2021 1:49 pm

Euro sends the system into the Corpus area (actually a little south of it closer to South Padre), sort of in line with the GEFS, but more north than the GFS. The difference is that the Euro has a more NW path versus the GEFS that hooks it at the last second.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#767 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 21, 2021 1:58 pm

12z Euro
Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

IcyTundra
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#768 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Aug 21, 2021 1:58 pm

We will probably see a new AOI in the W Carribean in the 5 day tropical outlook tomorrow night or on Monday.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#769 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:00 pm

It could miss its exit with that trough pulling outta the Great Lakes region and be trapped. Dang :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#770 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:01 pm

ForexTidbits wrote:https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Whatever enters the GOM will have a a lot of energy to work with.


Ut oh is right. Here is the 12Z CMC:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#771 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:03 pm

Cpv17 wrote:It could miss its exit with that trough pulling outta the Great Lakes region and be trapped. Dang :eek:



It's pretty well inland on the Euro, but if it stalled there could dump a lot of rain in the San Antonio area. They definitely don't need that as it floods there pretty easily.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IcyTundra
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#772 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:03 pm

CMC and ECMWF are more in line with the GEFS with a more northerly component to the track. Everyone from Mexico to Louisiana should keep an eye on this.
0 likes   

hurricane2025
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#773 Postby hurricane2025 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:08 pm

Still long ways out
3 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#774 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:09 pm

hurricane2025 wrote:Still long ways out



No doubt. Lots of time for changes at this point. Still, to see so many models see "something", it's definitely worth looking at.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#775 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:13 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:It could miss its exit with that trough pulling outta the Great Lakes region and be trapped. Dang :eek:



It's pretty well inland on the Euro, but if it stalled there could dump a lot of rain in the San Antonio area. They definitely don't need that as it floods there pretty easily.


From hour 216 to hour 240, it only moves maybe 100 miles, if that. Which would indicate about a 4mph movement.
2 likes   

IcyTundra
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#776 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:14 pm

hurricane2025 wrote:Still long ways out


True it is still a pretty long ways out but it is in that 7-10 day range where the models have consistently been hinting at development. Models typically aren't that accurate in that time frame but it isn't like this is 14+ days out. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
0 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1092
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#777 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:29 pm

If this thing develops and somehow pulls a Harvey or Imelda, I am not staying this time. I am out of here!
1 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 540
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#778 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Whatever enters the GOM will have a a lot of energy to work with.


Ut oh is right. Here is the 12Z CMC:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fXhG0f8/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh120-240.gif


Signal is becoming stronger each model cycle that something will form and move towards somewhere in Texas as of now.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#779 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:37 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:If this thing develops and somehow pulls a Harvey or Imelda, I am not staying this time. I am out of here!


Man, it's WAY too early to invoke those names. :lol:

And as a whole, more models as of now still show a Mexico to South Texas solution. Still time to watch and wait. Of course, that ridge/trough interaction will be key to whatever does form.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#780 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 21, 2021 2:38 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ForexTidbits wrote:https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Whatever enters the GOM will have a a lot of energy to work with.


Ut oh is right. Here is the 12Z CMC:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fXhG0f8/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh120-240.gif

On the subject of “uh oh”, there’s a Cape Verde storm over on the right.

Seems like there’s a decent chance we’ll end the month off on another Gulf storm and a MDR long-tracker.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 33 guests