ATL: IDA - Models

[lsuhurricane]

12z Euro Ensembles are still allllll over the map. Maybe a tick north when you average them from 6z.

Perhaps the ensembles (and this covers GFS as well) don't have the resolution necessary to determine the small scale steering?

[SconnieCane]

12Z HWRF is basically Ike Pt. 2 (rather like the 0Z was Laura Pt. 2), gargantuan TC that has trouble consolidating an intense core (for some reason it shows this despite lack of land interaction), although it seems to be making progress on that on the last frame and threatening the Galveston/Houston area.

[BobHarlem]

12Z HWRF is basically Ike Pt. 2 (rather like the 0Z was Laura Pt. 2), gargantuan TC that has trouble consolidating an intense core (for some reason it shows this despite lack of land interaction), although it seems to be making progress on that on the last frame and threatening the Galveston/Houston area.

Yeah I think if the system gets its act together sooner than anticipated (looking at the visible today makes me think it may) the HWRF may go total ballistic later.

[ROCK]

12Z HWRF is basically Ike Pt. 2 (rather like the 0Z was Laura Pt. 2), gargantuan TC that has trouble consolidating an intense core (for some reason it shows this despite lack of land interaction), although it seems to be making progress on that on the last frame and threatening the Galveston/Houston area.

Yeah I think if the system gets its act together sooner than anticipated (looking at the visible today makes me think it may) the HWRF may go total ballistic later.

I dont know about the visible as it has mid level vort to the North and East then I can see a low level to the SW. Needs more consolidation. IMO. the ensembles are jacked up.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/99_Wolves_17/status/1430608955898802177

[ConvergenceZone]

I had a question, but moving post to the storm thread instead, which is more appropriate...

[SoupBone]

So the TVCN (typically used by the NHC) has Houston/Galveston in its sights.

[ROCK]

So the TVCN (typically used by the NHC) has Houston/Galveston in its sights.

https://i.imgur.com/YgoB8Zc.gif

yes that is the a blend of all the models on that map currently.

[Nimbus]

Watch the latest Tropical Tidbits video. Levi talking about the lower area developing and ambiguities as far as center consolidation being higher than normal.

12Z Euro running

https://i.imgur.com/TYTcG41.png

Levi gets a lot of appropriate analysis boiled down into 10 minutes....
Still looks like the models are showing a shotgun pattern of landfall probabilities and the accuracy will improve when they initialize in the western Caribbean in a few runs.
Since yesterday more runs are targeting Louisiana which might mean they expect this to shoot the Yucatan channel and stay over water longer.
And the blocking ridge that will generally track this NW through the gulf hasn't evolved much in the models so that part of the forecast puzzle is firming up.

[Kohlecane]

So the TVCN (typically used by the NHC) has Houston/Galveston in its sights.

If this becomes Ida, All I'm saying is I'm getting a scratch off

[hurricane2025]

That was in November totally different pattern setup

[captainbarbossa19]

That was in November totally different pattern setup

Yep. The typical late August pattern would most likely support a track much more west. My guess now is somewhere between Lafayette and Matagorda Bay.

[jasons2k]

That was in November totally different pattern setup

Yep. The typical late August pattern would most likely support a track much more west. My guess now is somewhere between Lafayette and Matagorda Bay.

That is one more factor. Historically, ridges tend to also be stronger in August than in September.

[Kohlecane]

That was in November totally different pattern setup

Yep. The typical late August pattern would most likely support a track much more west. My guess now is somewhere between Lafayette and Matagorda Bay.

Was not saying the patterns are similar just the fact that there are similarities location wise, if this was a MDR "Ida" then of course it would be silly, just thought it was interesting, well on another note, good to see that in November 2009 we were on "9th" named storm, fast forward twelve years and its third week of August

[Senobia]

I'm not sure if this has been stated in previous pages, but a local met here in SETX believes the low is further north than what the NHC charted in the modeling. He did not expand on that, said he would post a full update later. Has anyone else heard this or does anyone know how that would affect a potential track?

[SoupBone]

I'm not sure if this has been stated in previous pages, but a local met here in SETX believes the low is further north than what the NHC charted in the modeling. He did not expand on that, said he would post a full update later. Has anyone else heard this or does anyone know how that would affect a potential track?

That's likely the location that the GFS, Euro and others have been using for the center. If the low-level circ gets pulled into that, we're off to the races. No idea though if that MLC wins or not.

[ROCK]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=120


12Z EURO Ensembles...clear as clear lake....

[ROCK]

I'm not sure if this has been stated in previous pages, but a local met here in SETX believes the low is further north than what the NHC charted in the modeling. He did not expand on that, said he would post a full update later. Has anyone else heard this or does anyone know how that would affect a potential track?

That's likely the location that the GFS, Euro and others have been using for the center. If the low-level circ gets pulled into that, we're off to the races. No idea though if that MLC wins or not.

NHS is further down the wave axis. I never get hung up on a MLC. IMO

[Clearcloudz]

12Z EPS Ensemble



12Z GEFS Ensemble



12Z Canadian GEM Ensemble

[SoupBone]

ICON coming in maybe slightly north of its last run, but barely noticeable at 78 hours.