ATL: IDA - Models

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#541 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:07 pm

Stronger and further west looks to be the trend on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#542 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:07 pm

That approach angle is Bad when it comes to surge in and around NOLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#543 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:07 pm

That would be a Gustav repeat pretty much.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#544 Postby catskillfire51 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:07 pm

Looks to be Houma area if my geography is right. 969MB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#545 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:08 pm

Back in hurricane conditions in Lafayette on the 00z GFS :oops:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#546 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That would be a Gustav repeat pretty much.


More like a Hurricane Andrew approach and nearly identical pressure at landfall around 955mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#547 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:11 pm

Yeah so that ridge will definitely tell the tale of this story. It will mean the difference between a LA/TX landfall and a SELA landfall. Do they launch balloons to see how the ridge is holding up? I seem to remember them doing this ahead of a few systems.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#548 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:13 pm

00Z GEFS has a tight cluster east of the previous right off the tip of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#549 Postby catskillfire51 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:13 pm

SoupBone wrote:Yeah so that ridge will definitely tell the tale of this story. It will mean the difference between a LA/TX landfall and a SELA landfall. Do they launch balloons to see how the ridge is holding up? I seem to remember them doing this ahead of a few systems.


It seems the ridge is still collapsing at the same time, 99L is just getting there faster before it collapses. Was supposed to be on Tuesday but now it's getting to the coast sunday/monday
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#550 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:16 pm

catskillfire51 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Yeah so that ridge will definitely tell the tale of this story. It will mean the difference between a LA/TX landfall and a SELA landfall. Do they launch balloons to see how the ridge is holding up? I seem to remember them doing this ahead of a few systems.


It seems the ridge is still collapsing at the same time, 99L is just getting there faster before it collapses. Was supposed to be on Tuesday but now it's getting to the coast sunday/monday


I think offices in the Southeast need extra balloons. A stronger ridge definitely means farther west (notwithstanding the center issue). With a northern center, the difference between NOLA and SW LA, while a southern center the difference between SW LA and S TX.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#551 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:21 pm

SoupBone wrote:00Z GEFS has a tight cluster east of the previous right off the tip of Cuba.


The operational was still near the eastern edge of that though. Still, we can't rule out impacts (or even landfall) even east of NOLA, nor can we in Texas right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#552 Postby Woofde » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:27 pm

The ensemble package once again trended faster and is clumped further north.ImageImageImage
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#553 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:28 pm

GEFS 90 Hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#554 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:31 pm

00Z CMC 84 Hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#555 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:32 pm

GFS following the CMC's 12z with the next storm just off the Yucatan around 204h.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=204
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#556 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:36 pm

Speaking of the Canadian, SELA Sunday night. Maybe Lafourche Parish over toward Grand Isle. But then it appears to come in around Terrebonne Bay 1am Monday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=102
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#557 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:38 pm

So the GEFS has basically honed in on central Louisiana.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#558 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:48 pm

Steve wrote:GFS following the CMC's 12z with the next storm just off the Yucatan around 204h.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=204



I see that. Is that from an existing feature or does it just come to be?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#559 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:52 pm

I'd think if there was an advisory map right now, it would have an H just east of Cameron, LA with an intensity of 85-95 kt.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#560 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:54 pm

If the models keep trending east in the short term, Key West could get some significant weather from this.
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