ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Ouch!!
Right in the middle of a 355K PV Ring as it enters the GoM

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJvScVMK/gfs-pv355-K-atl-9.png [/url]

What will that do?

Strengthen it

[jlauderdal]

These drastic model flip flops will ultimately catch people totally off guard. Please do not relax your preparations anywhere from Texas to Florida.

They haven't been that drastic in the short term, they are trending towards the east, if you are in LA and points east I would begin preps today. Hopefully, you won't need them but it's august, your supplies will last until the end of the season. There is no reason to be caught in a gas or food line.

[AlphaToOmega]

It does not matter if the storm makes landfall in Texas, Mexico, or Louisiana. Impacts from Invest 99L may extend far beyond the place where this storm makes landfall. Everyone on the Gulf Coast must be prepared, for this storm could hit any one of you!

[jaguars_22]

Can someone tell me where the circulation is with this storm. All I see is a blob over Jamaica and no low level organization or type of spin to it

[tropicwatch]

Can someone tell me where the circulation is with this storm. All I see is a blob over Jamaica and no low level organization or type of spin to it

Here is a good indicator.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[Blown Away]

Can someone tell me where the circulation is with this storm. All I see is a blob over Jamaica and no low level organization or type of spin to it

Might have updated within past hour or so, but likely a bit WNW of this position.

[tolakram]

Floater "Natural Color" RGB (lower levels white, upper levels blue)

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[kevin]

An overview of all Texas/Louisiana August MH landfalls for reference. Stats are regarding landfalling pressure/wind, so not always peak values. Some more statistics:
*Since 1851 there have been 18 MH August landfalls in Texas/Louisiana, which results in an average return period of roughly 9.5 years.
*In the same period there have been 7 cat 4 landfalls, so for an August cat 4+ landfall the return period is roughly 24 years.
*No hurricane (at least since 1851) has ever made landfall as a cat 5 in Texas/Louisiana in August. However, based on a Gaussian distribution (which approximates the return periods quite well for a cat 3 and cat 4), the expected return period would be roughly 650 years. So pretty much never.

Year / Storm / LF category / LF pressure (mb) / LF wind (kt)

2020 / Laura / 4 / 938 / 130
2017 / Harvey / 4 / 937 / 115
2005 / Katrina / 3 / 920 / 110
1999 / Bret / 3 / 951 / 100
1992 / Andrew / 3 / 956 / 100
1983 / Alicia / 3 / 962 / 100
1980 / Allen / 3 / 945 / 100
1970 / Celia / 3 / 945 / 110
1945 / Unnamed / 3 / 963 / 100
1942 / Unnamed / 3 / 950 / 100
1932 / Unnamed / 4 / 935 / 130
1926 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 100
1918 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 105
1916 / Unnamed / 4 / 932 / 115
1915 / Unnamed / 4 / 940 / 115
1886 / Unnamed / 4 / 925 / 130
1860 / Unnamed / 3 / ??? / 110
1856 / Unnamed / 4 / 934 / 130

[tolakram]

I see westward movement in the lower levels, we might get a TD pretty soon. Hard to tell, but I believe what I'm seeing is in the lower levels.

[jlauderdal]

It does not matter if the storm makes landfall in Texas, Mexico, or Louisiana. Impacts from Invest 99L may extend far beyond the place where this storm makes landfall. Everyone on the Gulf Coast must be prepared, for this storm could hit any one of you!

it matters big time if you are in the eyewall of a major hurricane. Everyone needs to be prepared but this isn't henri or elsa we are dealing with, a few miles here and there makes a huge difference on effects in a major which this will be next week.

[tropicwatch]

It does not matter if the storm makes landfall in Texas, Mexico, or Louisiana. Impacts from Invest 99L may extend far beyond the place where this storm makes landfall. Everyone on the Gulf Coast must be prepared, for this storm could hit any one of you!

it matters big time if you are in the eyewall of a major hurricane. Everyone needs to be prepared but this isn't henri or elsa we are dealing with, a few miles here and there makes a huge difference on effects in a major which this will be next week.

Eyewall nasty critter, no fun at all.

[GCANE]

Northern part of the Dry Slot is being taken out by convection.
Not much change in the southern part of the Dry Slot

[aspen]

Based on the 8am TWO, we’ll likely see PTC-9 at 11am.

Recon won’t arrive until 20:00z/4pm, right? Odds are this’ll be a TC by then.

[GCANE]

A ton of LL west winds here in the red.
Very nice ML rotation in green.
Nice tower circled in yellow getting caught up in the ML circulation.
Should help to create a more defined warm core.

[GCANE]

Yep, those LL west winds are showing up on Dvorak just SW of the IR estimated CoC.
Good chance this is a TD

[jaxfladude]

When Will We Get Some Solid Idea Of Where 99L/Ida Will Go? Tired of the waiting game so to speak...

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99L)

B. 26/1130Z

C. 16.7N

D. 78.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 4/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. THE
0934Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MW PASS REVEALS A DISTINCT BANDING STRUCTURE IN THE
NNE QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A BANDING STRUCTURE ORIENTED SW TO
NE OF THE LLCC INDICATING SW WINDS AT THE MID LEVELS AND LOW LEVELS ARE
GETTING MORE ORGANIZED WHICH CAN BE ALSO SEEN ON THE 37 GHZ MW PASS. THE
24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RESULTING MET TO BE 1.5 AND PT TO BE 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Kohlecane]

with that RGB and noted W movement I would say its closer to 17N(+/-) and 77.5W(+/-) just my view
EDIT: submit and see above post I was not that far off

[GCANE]

Seeing far-out turning kicking in on VIS

[underthwx]

These drastic model flip flops will ultimately catch people totally off guard. Please do not relax your preparations anywhere from Texas to Florida.

They haven't been that drastic in the short term, they are trending towards the east, if you are in LA and points east I would begin preps today. Hopefully, you won't need them but it's august, your supplies will last until the end of the season. There is no reason to be caught in a gas or food line.

True that....nobody is out of the woods...same story... different season....be prepared