ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#341 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:44 am

aspen wrote:
GCANE wrote:Ouch!!
Right in the middle of a 355K PV Ring as it enters the GoM

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XJvScVMK/gfs-pv355-K-atl-9.png [/url]

What will that do?


Strengthen it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#342 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:45 am

Jagno wrote:These drastic model flip flops will ultimately catch people totally off guard. Please do not relax your preparations anywhere from Texas to Florida.

They haven't been that drastic in the short term, they are trending towards the east, if you are in LA and points east I would begin preps today. Hopefully, you won't need them but it's august, your supplies will last until the end of the season. There is no reason to be caught in a gas or food line.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#343 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:53 am

It does not matter if the storm makes landfall in Texas, Mexico, or Louisiana. Impacts from Invest 99L may extend far beyond the place where this storm makes landfall. Everyone on the Gulf Coast must be prepared, for this storm could hit any one of you!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#344 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:54 am

Can someone tell me where the circulation is with this storm. All I see is a blob over Jamaica and no low level organization or type of spin to it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#345 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:58 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Can someone tell me where the circulation is with this storm. All I see is a blob over Jamaica and no low level organization or type of spin to it


Here is a good indicator.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#346 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:59 am

jaguars_22 wrote:Can someone tell me where the circulation is with this storm. All I see is a blob over Jamaica and no low level organization or type of spin to it


Image

Might have updated within past hour or so, but likely a bit WNW of this position.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#347 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:00 am

Floater "Natural Color" RGB (lower levels white, upper levels blue)

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#348 Postby kevin » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:04 am

An overview of all Texas/Louisiana August MH landfalls for reference. Stats are regarding landfalling pressure/wind, so not always peak values. Some more statistics:
*Since 1851 there have been 18 MH August landfalls in Texas/Louisiana, which results in an average return period of roughly 9.5 years.
*In the same period there have been 7 cat 4 landfalls, so for an August cat 4+ landfall the return period is roughly 24 years.
*No hurricane (at least since 1851) has ever made landfall as a cat 5 in Texas/Louisiana in August. However, based on a Gaussian distribution (which approximates the return periods quite well for a cat 3 and cat 4), the expected return period would be roughly 650 years. So pretty much never.

Year / Storm / LF category / LF pressure (mb) / LF wind (kt)

2020 / Laura / 4 / 938 / 130
2017 / Harvey / 4 / 937 / 115
2005 / Katrina / 3 / 920 / 110
1999 / Bret / 3 / 951 / 100
1992 / Andrew / 3 / 956 / 100
1983 / Alicia / 3 / 962 / 100
1980 / Allen / 3 / 945 / 100
1970 / Celia / 3 / 945 / 110
1945 / Unnamed / 3 / 963 / 100
1942 / Unnamed / 3 / 950 / 100
1932 / Unnamed / 4 / 935 / 130
1926 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 100
1918 / Unnamed / 3 / 955 / 105
1916 / Unnamed / 4 / 932 / 115
1915 / Unnamed / 4 / 940 / 115
1886 / Unnamed / 4 / 925 / 130
1860 / Unnamed / 3 / ??? / 110
1856 / Unnamed / 4 / 934 / 130
Last edited by kevin on Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#349 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:05 am

I see westward movement in the lower levels, we might get a TD pretty soon. Hard to tell, but I believe what I'm seeing is in the lower levels.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#350 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:10 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:It does not matter if the storm makes landfall in Texas, Mexico, or Louisiana. Impacts from Invest 99L may extend far beyond the place where this storm makes landfall. Everyone on the Gulf Coast must be prepared, for this storm could hit any one of you!

it matters big time if you are in the eyewall of a major hurricane. Everyone needs to be prepared but this isn't henri or elsa we are dealing with, a few miles here and there makes a huge difference on effects in a major which this will be next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#351 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:12 am

jlauderdal wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:It does not matter if the storm makes landfall in Texas, Mexico, or Louisiana. Impacts from Invest 99L may extend far beyond the place where this storm makes landfall. Everyone on the Gulf Coast must be prepared, for this storm could hit any one of you!

it matters big time if you are in the eyewall of a major hurricane. Everyone needs to be prepared but this isn't henri or elsa we are dealing with, a few miles here and there makes a huge difference on effects in a major which this will be next week.


Eyewall nasty critter, no fun at all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#352 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:20 am

Northern part of the Dry Slot is being taken out by convection.
Not much change in the southern part of the Dry Slot

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#353 Postby aspen » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:24 am

Based on the 8am TWO, we’ll likely see PTC-9 at 11am.

Recon won’t arrive until 20:00z/4pm, right? Odds are this’ll be a TC by then.
Last edited by aspen on Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#354 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:30 am

A ton of LL west winds here in the red.
Very nice ML rotation in green.
Nice tower circled in yellow getting caught up in the ML circulation.
Should help to create a more defined warm core.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#355 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:36 am

Yep, those LL west winds are showing up on Dvorak just SW of the IR estimated CoC.
Good chance this is a TD

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#356 Postby jaxfladude » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:37 am

When Will We Get Some Solid Idea Of Where 99L/Ida Will Go? Tired of the waiting game so to speak...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#357 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:37 am

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99L)

B. 26/1130Z

C. 16.7N

D. 78.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 4/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.5. THE
0934Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MW PASS REVEALS A DISTINCT BANDING STRUCTURE IN THE
NNE QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A BANDING STRUCTURE ORIENTED SW TO
NE OF THE LLCC INDICATING SW WINDS AT THE MID LEVELS AND LOW LEVELS ARE
GETTING MORE ORGANIZED WHICH CAN BE ALSO SEEN ON THE 37 GHZ MW PASS. THE
24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING RESULTING MET TO BE 1.5 AND PT TO BE 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#358 Postby Kohlecane » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:40 am

with that RGB and noted W movement I would say its closer to 17N(+/-) and 77.5W(+/-) just my view :roll:
EDIT: submit and see above post :lol: I was not that far off 8-)
Last edited by Kohlecane on Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#359 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:41 am

Seeing far-out turning kicking in on VIS

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#360 Postby underthwx » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:43 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Jagno wrote:These drastic model flip flops will ultimately catch people totally off guard. Please do not relax your preparations anywhere from Texas to Florida.

They haven't been that drastic in the short term, they are trending towards the east, if you are in LA and points east I would begin preps today. Hopefully, you won't need them but it's august, your supplies will last until the end of the season. There is no reason to be caught in a gas or food line.


True that....nobody is out of the woods...same story... different season....be prepared
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