ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/SDBrownWX/status/1299529307161796608




If the forecasts are to verify, this map would become very difficult to discern with Ida covering Harvey and Laura.

[BensonTCwatcher]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-truecolor-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The Northern lobe has pretty well decided to close off and this looks like game on but earlier than the previous runs. Getting the recon in there will likely see strong consensus on track today/tonight but intensity could be tough to keep up with (Gulf storm in August High ocean heat content)

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, wonder when the Weather Channel will begin their 24 hour coverage? Not a big fan of the weather channel anymore, but they still have the best hurricane coverage/updates....I don't have comcast anymore which is why I subscribe to the streaming service Frndly during the summer(just to get the weather channel) and then cancel it after hurricane season is over

[chaser1]

X is where they estimate the CoC to be and initiated advisories. Close to the area I have been looking at this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/JDbn8ip.gif

With overall model support being pretty tight for this TD, I'd be pretty confident that NHC has a pretty good handle on track and motion. Having said that, it is this formative stage that often results in tweaked adjustments simply because there yet remains a definitive COC to initialize. While the LLC has been determined to be around 16.9 & 79.2, I get the sense that the LLC may still be a bit stretched north to south. If that might be the case, and given the orientation of convective activity and perhaps MLC slightly north of that point, I could see a "re-adjustment" or center relocation a bit more northward later in the day or this evening. If correct, recon will suggest the potentially broader wind-field and we might see the formative LLC slide a bit more north into and in better alignment with the MLC late today/tonight. If that occurred then I'd guess this would be reflected in this evening's 0Z model runs. Overall track prediction might therefore end up being nudged a little to the right POSSIBLY suggesting an increased landfall risk to the Mobile/Biloxi area.

[capNstorms]

as NINE approaches the GOM, I believe the high is dipping further south and way west forcing this into Texas just my .02c

There's no evidence of this right now so what makes you think this will occur?

using short range pressure pattern models and also observation and history. is this going to turn into a 2004/2005 type season? check the sat this morning look at the coast we have a telegram from mother nature.

https://imgur.com/MqClQ1p

[skyline385]

Stronger 12Z GFS with 951mb around NOLA close to landfall

[BensonTCwatcher]

You can see the northern portion closing off here https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-79.19,18.54,2533/loc=-52.988,12.676

Also if your not familiar, click on the menu lower left and select the various height up through 500mb . It appears to be stacking up in earnest ( based on NCEP and GFS which this is derived from)

[BigB0882]

Stronger 12Z GFS with 951mb around NOLA close to landfall

What direction is the heading? Sorry to ask but most sites are blocked where I work so most images do not show up for me.

[tolakram]

Stronger 12Z GFS with 951mb around NOLA close to landfall

What direction is the heading? Sorry to ask but most sites are blocked where I work so most images do not show up for me.

Can you see this, and work the controls at the top?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2021082612&fh=0

[cycloneye]

Hopefully they can fly soon.

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1430922894851428357

[AerospaceEng]

Hopefully they can fly soon.

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1430922894851428357

Yeah, that’s not a good look. Strong signal of a possible major hurricane into NOLA and recon can’t fly?

[aspen]

Not to freak anyone out, but apparently Katrina also blew up over an extremely warm Loop Current.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteoro ... height.jpg

At least Ida will have less time between exiting land and going over the Loop Current than Katrina.

[underthwx]

X is where they estimate the CoC to be and initiated advisories. Close to the area I have been looking at this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/JDbn8ip.gif

With overall model support being pretty tight for this TD, I'd be pretty confident that NHC has a pretty good handle on track and motion. Having said that, it is this formative stage that often results in tweaked adjustments simply because there yet remains a definitive COC to initialize. While the LLC has been determined to be around 16.9 & 79.2, I get the sense that the LLC may still be a bit stretched north to south. If that might be the case, and given the orientation of convective activity and perhaps MLC slightly north of that point, I could see a "re-adjustment" or center relocation a bit more northward later in the day or this evening. If correct, recon will suggest the potentially broader wind-field and we might see the formative LLC slide a bit more north into and in better alignment with the MLC late today/tonight. If that occurred then I'd guess this would be reflected in this evening's 0Z model runs. Overall track prediction might therefore end up being nudged a little to the right POSSIBLY suggesting an increased landfall risk to the Mobile/Biloxi area.

With cooler heads prevailing....and after reading discussion number one on TD 9....I agree with you...the information available ATM from the NHC suggests vigilance is in order...points eastward from the current NHC forecast track.....and of course westward... to the Upper Texas coast...

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/1430912848406929410





 https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1430918910627352580



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1430924933580918784



 https://twitter.com/COweatherman/status/1430924891788693508

[BigB0882]

Stronger 12Z GFS with 951mb around NOLA close to landfall

What direction is the heading? Sorry to ask but most sites are blocked where I work so most images do not show up for me.

Can you see this, and work the controls at the top?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2021082612&fh=0

Thank you, that site is not blocked! Looks like this run of the GFS suggests that it wouldn't take much change in timing to end up hooking earlier and going into the MS/AL coast. That's one thing I will be watching closely for.

[SouthDadeFish]

Interesting GPM pass:

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1430922230511329288

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Isn’t the High supposed to weaken a little bit which would allow for soon-to-be Ida to go at a more NNW or NW direction to Louisiana rather than a WNW or W direction to Texas?

as NINE approaches the GOM, I believe the high is dipping further south and way west forcing this into Texas just my .02c

There's no evidence of this right now so what makes you think this will occur?

using short range pressure pattern models and also observation and history. is this going to turn into a 2004/2005 type season? check the sat this morning look at the coast we have a telegram from mother nature.

https://imgur.com/MqClQ1p

[Jr0d]

...quotes from model thread...but did not want to clutter the forum with non model discussion...

6zGFS with a nightmare scenario of a land falling hurricane into New Orleans in a little over 3 days...Very little time for preparations.

GFS, CMC and EURO are showing New Orleans hits. Hopefully that changes.

Not if you are east or west of NO

I get that and meant to put a disclaimer in my post addressing the issue. That said, a direct hit on New Orleans would be worse from the overall humanitarian perspective. Other places can take along the gulf coast can take a direct hit much better and with a limited risk of lost lives, however it is still devastating for those who lose their homes.

With the vulnerable population and potential of levees failing, the storm missing New Orleans is a better scenario. Ideally the best outcome(besides a weak storm) would be for it to hit in sparsely populated areas, but again it is still bad for those who get hit.

[Hurrilurker]

I hope people in the Caymans are paying attention and preparing. They're going to be in for a nasty surprise from a rapidly-strengthening storm.

[Chemmers]

Not to freak anyone out, but apparently Katrina also blew up over an extremely warm Loop Current.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteoro ... height.jpg

At least Ida will have less time between exiting land and going over the Loop Current than Katrina.

And unfortunately there waters are alot warmer near the coast then katrina went through, so where she weaken, think Ida might keep strengthing all the way to the coast, everyone be safe