ATL: IDA - Models

[sphelps8681]

I'm waiting to see the models tonight to move back West of Vermillion Bay but not to Calcasieu Pass. I think the models are still trying to zero in on the exact spot of where this is going until it does consolidate completely and decides if it will move through the channel or over Cuba.

What scenario besides the ridge will effect where this goes. What would bring it closer to Texas? Thanks.

[Nederlander]

I'm waiting to see the models tonight to move back West of Vermillion Bay but not to Calcasieu Pass. I think the models are still trying to zero in on the exact spot of where this is going until it does consolidate completely and decides if it will move through the channel or over Cuba.

What scenario besides the ridge will effect where this goes. What would bring it closer to Texas? Thanks.

Nothing… that is exactly the steering mechanism. Confidence is strong in the NHC track to LA within 3 days.

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF

[PandaCitrus]

This would be a worse case scenario event for New Orleans, even worse landfall position than Katrina. Hopefully it landfalls where nobody but gators live further west.

18Z GFS Grand Isle, LA landfall 1 PM central time on Sunday.

Looks like the eye will pass right over the Westbank and City of New Orleans.
https://i.imgur.com/iPZ7ggk.png

[underthwx]

18Z HWRF
https://i.imgur.com/3ce0l2w.png

Is that image generated from recon data?...

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF
https://i.imgur.com/3ce0l2w.png

Is that image generated from recon data?...

Doubt it, the run started right at the time recon reached the system.

[rw1984]

Will the 0z models this evening have the recon data incorporated?

[sphelps8681]

I'm waiting to see the models tonight to move back West of Vermillion Bay but not to Calcasieu Pass. I think the models are still trying to zero in on the exact spot of where this is going until it does consolidate completely and decides if it will move through the channel or over Cuba.

What scenario besides the ridge will effect where this goes. What would bring it closer to Texas? Thanks.

Nothing… that is exactly the steering mechanism. Confidence is strong in the NHC track to LA within 3 days.

Not talking a direct hit but more on rain and wind.

[gatorcane]

GFS closeup simulated IR:

[cycloneye]

00z Guidance.

[Blinhart]

I'm waiting to see the models tonight to move back West of Vermillion Bay but not to Calcasieu Pass. I think the models are still trying to zero in on the exact spot of where this is going until it does consolidate completely and decides if it will move through the channel or over Cuba.

What scenario besides the ridge will effect where this goes. What would bring it closer to Texas? Thanks.

Nothing… that is exactly the steering mechanism. Confidence is strong in the NHC track to LA within 3 days.

I never said it was going to Texas. I said it would move further West from Morgan City to just West of Intracoastal City.

[PTrackerLA]

00z Guidance.

https://i.imgur.com/ARDz0Er.png

https://i.imgur.com/iLSVVJJ.png

NHC now east of TVCN, west shift at 10pm upcoming?

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro ensembles

[Sciencerocks]

00z Guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/iLSVVJJ.png

My thinking is for this to be more like a low to mid end cat2 by landfall. I wouldn't be shocked if it got stronger but chances are it won't be a cat4 or 5.

[sphelps8681]

18z Euro ensembles

https://imgur.com/FMTixnL

Looks like models spreading out a bit. Curious how this works out. Extreme E Tx is still in the cone from what I can see.

[CrazyC83]

00z Guidance.

https://i.imgur.com/ARDz0Er.png

https://i.imgur.com/iLSVVJJ.png

NHC now east of TVCN, west shift at 10pm upcoming?

Honestly, I wouldn't make the shift yet. Let's see if it holds up longer before moving the track.

[Blinhart]

Shouldn't new models be rolling right now?

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431077523962482690




 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431078507291889669




 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431081674909962245




People in Texas. Your not out of the woods yet.

[Steve]

00z Guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/iLSVVJJ.png

My thinking is for this to be more like a low to mid end cat2 by landfall. I wouldn't be shocked if it got stronger but chances are it won't be a cat4 or 5.

Yeah, I think 4 or 5 are unlikely as well if not impossible. Earlier I guessed 70% at Cat 3. Not sure I'm that high anymore - probably more like 40-45%. But since they sample so much stuff now, they may be able to find at least an extended gust into Cat 3 territory over the Gulf. Glad to see an extreme slowdown is probably off the table too. I'm a wuss and not really ready to make a call like I have for the last 25 years on here or CFHC. But I feel like it will landfall between Slidell and Marsh Island with the zoomed in range of Cocodrie to Centerville/Patterson (just west of Morgan City).

[jaguars_22]

Nam shows pressure at 896… omg if that ever happens