ATL: IDA - Models

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sphelps8681
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#801 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:44 pm

Blinhart wrote:I'm waiting to see the models tonight to move back West of Vermillion Bay but not to Calcasieu Pass. I think the models are still trying to zero in on the exact spot of where this is going until it does consolidate completely and decides if it will move through the channel or over Cuba.


What scenario besides the ridge will effect where this goes. What would bring it closer to Texas? Thanks.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#802 Postby Nederlander » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:48 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:I'm waiting to see the models tonight to move back West of Vermillion Bay but not to Calcasieu Pass. I think the models are still trying to zero in on the exact spot of where this is going until it does consolidate completely and decides if it will move through the channel or over Cuba.


What scenario besides the ridge will effect where this goes. What would bring it closer to Texas? Thanks.

Nothing… that is exactly the steering mechanism. Confidence is strong in the NHC track to LA within 3 days.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#803 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:49 pm

18Z HWRF
Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#804 Postby PandaCitrus » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:00 pm

This would be a worse case scenario event for New Orleans, even worse landfall position than Katrina. Hopefully it landfalls where nobody but gators live further west.

Steve wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:18Z GFS Grand Isle, LA landfall 1 PM central time on Sunday.


Looks like the eye will pass right over the Westbank and City of New Orleans.
https://i.imgur.com/iPZ7ggk.png
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#805 Postby underthwx » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:03 pm

tolakram wrote:18Z HWRF
https://i.imgur.com/3ce0l2w.png


Is that image generated from recon data?...
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#806 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:05 pm

underthwx wrote:
tolakram wrote:18Z HWRF
https://i.imgur.com/3ce0l2w.png


Is that image generated from recon data?...


Doubt it, the run started right at the time recon reached the system.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#807 Postby rw1984 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:29 pm

Will the 0z models this evening have the recon data incorporated?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#808 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:30 pm

Nederlander wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:I'm waiting to see the models tonight to move back West of Vermillion Bay but not to Calcasieu Pass. I think the models are still trying to zero in on the exact spot of where this is going until it does consolidate completely and decides if it will move through the channel or over Cuba.


What scenario besides the ridge will effect where this goes. What would bring it closer to Texas? Thanks.

Nothing… that is exactly the steering mechanism. Confidence is strong in the NHC track to LA within 3 days.


Not talking a direct hit but more on rain and wind.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#809 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:38 pm

GFS closeup simulated IR: :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#810 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 26, 2021 7:56 pm

00z Guidance.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#811 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:07 pm

Nederlander wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:I'm waiting to see the models tonight to move back West of Vermillion Bay but not to Calcasieu Pass. I think the models are still trying to zero in on the exact spot of where this is going until it does consolidate completely and decides if it will move through the channel or over Cuba.


What scenario besides the ridge will effect where this goes. What would bring it closer to Texas? Thanks.

Nothing… that is exactly the steering mechanism. Confidence is strong in the NHC track to LA within 3 days.


I never said it was going to Texas. I said it would move further West from Morgan City to just West of Intracoastal City.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#812 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:33 pm



NHC now east of TVCN, west shift at 10pm upcoming?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#813 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:39 pm

18z Euro ensembles

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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#814 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 26, 2021 8:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/iLSVVJJ.png



My thinking is for this to be more like a low to mid end cat2 by landfall. I wouldn't be shocked if it got stronger but chances are it won't be a cat4 or 5.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#815 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:21 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro ensembles

https://imgur.com/FMTixnL


Looks like models spreading out a bit. Curious how this works out. Extreme E Tx is still in the cone from what I can see.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#816 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:22 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:


NHC now east of TVCN, west shift at 10pm upcoming?


Honestly, I wouldn't make the shift yet. Let's see if it holds up longer before moving the track.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#817 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:38 pm

Shouldn't new models be rolling right now?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#818 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:43 pm

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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#819 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:57 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
cycloneye wrote:00z Guidance.


https://i.imgur.com/iLSVVJJ.png



My thinking is for this to be more like a low to mid end cat2 by landfall. I wouldn't be shocked if it got stronger but chances are it won't be a cat4 or 5.


Yeah, I think 4 or 5 are unlikely as well if not impossible. Earlier I guessed 70% at Cat 3. Not sure I'm that high anymore - probably more like 40-45%. But since they sample so much stuff now, they may be able to find at least an extended gust into Cat 3 territory over the Gulf. Glad to see an extreme slowdown is probably off the table too. I'm a wuss and not really ready to make a call like I have for the last 25 years on here or CFHC. But I feel like it will landfall between Slidell and Marsh Island with the zoomed in range of Cocodrie to Centerville/Patterson (just west of Morgan City).
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Re: ATL: IDA - Models

#820 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:01 pm

Nam shows pressure at 896… omg if that ever happens :)
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