ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

NOAA is having all kinds of problems this morning. Their satellite imagery of Ida is having issues too.

[aspen]

Recon found the LLC right where that new big hot tower is firing off, suggesting that Ida’s structure is improving. This could help snap the LLC and MLC together. It’s possible 50 kt winds could be found in the NE quadrant where that hot tower is.

[Chemmers]

look like the 996 mb is right by the highest cloud top, it is about 4 to 5 mb lower than the Hwrf and gfs say it will be in 3 hours, will be very interesting what the next pass is

[Chemmers]

Recon found the LLC right where that new big hot tower is firing off, suggesting that Ida’s structure is improving. This could help snap the LLC and MLC together. It’s possible 50 kt winds could be found in the NE quadrant where that hot tower is.

sorry you beat me to it haha

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[GCANE]

Looking at where recon found the min pressure and where IR Sat has the LLC, it looks like it is very close to being stacked.
Those close-in hot towers that started firing last night did the trick.
This latest one is right on the money.
A big chunk of that dry-air slot to the west gotten taken out last night

[Blinhart]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

I wasn't expecting 60, was expecting at most 55. So the next advisory will be very interesting, could we see it go up to 130 for forecast?

[HurricaneFrances04]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

I wasn't expecting 60, was expecting at most 55. So the next advisory will be very interesting, could we see it go up to 130 for forecast?

Typically don’t see 55 mph because there’s no conversion from knots, but I want to say I have seen it in the past with intermediate advisories.

[GCANE]

Significantly east of forecast track

[aspen]

Significantly east of forecast track

Seems pretty close to me.

Speaking of the forecast, the NHC will probably significantly increase the intensity estimates up to landfall. Ida wasn’t supposed to hit 50 kt until this afternoon. I’m going to guess they have a 60 kt landfall in Cuba and 105-110 kt at minimum by the time it reaches Louisiana.

[tropicwatch]

They might have to put up some watches/warnings up for the keys.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the NHC page is crashing this AM. Too many weather weenies pressing F5 constantly.

[catskillfire51]

The actual center is actually right on track if not just west of track.

[cycloneye]

There have been some problems with loading the NHC site.

 https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/1431230417747709959

[GCANE]

Pretty good lightning and spewing nice cirrus with that DMAX Hot Tower

[skyline385]

So Ida is ahead of schedule of the 06Z HWRF which has a peak of 121kt and NHC also mentioned in the discussion that the 100 kt intensity is lower than the Florida State Superensemble. That's a big yikes...

[GCANE]

https://i.imgur.com/ETcTp7f.jpg

The actual center is actually right on track if not just west of track.

I might have been looking at an old ARCHER chart

[facemane]

Yep, I'm at 20 feet so I'm waiting a little longer, not expecting to leave until Saturday if at all.

Another aspect of this we need to take into account is the possibility for significant river and stream flooding well inland away from the surge.. Also tornadoes, weeks without electricity

I totally agree, a lot of people that haven't driven across Louisiana and explored Louisiana doesn't understand we don't have hills along the coast like almost every other state in this country. It is almost completely flat with a steady rise in height above sea level. We have a lot of dirt levees and the Intracoastal Waterway that separates a lot of the wetlands.

Ms. is flat as well. We don't have hilly territory until you get close to the Tenn. border.

[xironman]

Looks like that big cell may be helping to wrap things up by the center.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like that big cell may be helping to wrap things up by the center.

https://i.imgur.com/PnjM8Fv.gif

Forecast track has it going towards the western end of Isla del la Juventud. Looks like it might end up more towards the eastern end which is the eastern edge of the forecast cone.