ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#941 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:46 am

NOAA is having all kinds of problems this morning. Their satellite imagery of Ida is having issues too.
Last edited by tropicwatch on Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#942 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:49 am

Recon found the LLC right where that new big hot tower is firing off, suggesting that Ida’s structure is improving. This could help snap the LLC and MLC together. It’s possible 50 kt winds could be found in the NE quadrant where that hot tower is.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#943 Postby Chemmers » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:51 am

look like the 996 mb is right by the highest cloud top, it is about 4 to 5 mb lower than the Hwrf and gfs say it will be in 3 hours, will be very interesting what the next pass is
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#944 Postby Chemmers » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:52 am

aspen wrote:Recon found the LLC right where that new big hot tower is firing off, suggesting that Ida’s structure is improving. This could help snap the LLC and MLC together. It’s possible 50 kt winds could be found in the NE quadrant where that hot tower is.


sorry you beat me to it haha
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#945 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:56 am

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#946 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:57 am

Looking at where recon found the min pressure and where IR Sat has the LLC, it looks like it is very close to being stacked.
Those close-in hot towers that started firing last night did the trick.
This latest one is right on the money.
A big chunk of that dry-air slot to the west gotten taken out last night
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#947 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:59 am

cycloneye wrote:SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


I wasn't expecting 60, was expecting at most 55. So the next advisory will be very interesting, could we see it go up to 130 for forecast?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#948 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:06 am

Blinhart wrote:
cycloneye wrote:SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


I wasn't expecting 60, was expecting at most 55. So the next advisory will be very interesting, could we see it go up to 130 for forecast?


Typically don’t see 55 mph because there’s no conversion from knots, but I want to say I have seen it in the past with intermediate advisories.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= 8 AM=60 mph / 996 mbs

#949 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:06 am

Significantly east of forecast track
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= 8 AM=60 mph / 996 mbs

#950 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:11 am

GCANE wrote:Significantly east of forecast track

Seems pretty close to me.

Speaking of the forecast, the NHC will probably significantly increase the intensity estimates up to landfall. Ida wasn’t supposed to hit 50 kt until this afternoon. I’m going to guess they have a 60 kt landfall in Cuba and 105-110 kt at minimum by the time it reaches Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= 8 AM=60 mph / 996 mbs

#951 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:14 am

They might have to put up some watches/warnings up for the keys.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#952 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:25 am

Looks like the NHC page is crashing this AM. Too many weather weenies pressing F5 constantly.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#953 Postby catskillfire51 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:25 am

Image

The actual center is actually right on track if not just west of track.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#954 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:26 am

There have been some problems with loading the NHC site.

 https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/1431230417747709959


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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#955 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:28 am

Pretty good lightning and spewing nice cirrus with that DMAX Hot Tower
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#956 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:29 am

So Ida is ahead of schedule of the 06Z HWRF which has a peak of 121kt and NHC also mentioned in the discussion that the 100 kt intensity is lower than the Florida State Superensemble. That's a big yikes...
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#957 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:29 am

catskillfire51 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ETcTp7f.jpg

The actual center is actually right on track if not just west of track.


I might have been looking at an old ARCHER chart
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#958 Postby facemane » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:31 am

Blinhart wrote:
Stormgodess wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
Yep, I'm at 20 feet so I'm waiting a little longer, not expecting to leave until Saturday if at all.

Another aspect of this we need to take into account is the possibility for significant river and stream flooding well inland away from the surge.. Also tornadoes, weeks without electricity :cry:


I totally agree, a lot of people that haven't driven across Louisiana and explored Louisiana doesn't understand we don't have hills along the coast like almost every other state in this country. It is almost completely flat with a steady rise in height above sea level. We have a lot of dirt levees and the Intracoastal Waterway that separates a lot of the wetlands.


Ms. is flat as well. We don't have hilly territory until you get close to the Tenn. border.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#959 Postby xironman » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:33 am

Looks like that big cell may be helping to wrap things up by the center.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#960 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:37 am

xironman wrote:Looks like that big cell may be helping to wrap things up by the center.

https://i.imgur.com/PnjM8Fv.gif


Forecast track has it going towards the western end of Isla del la Juventud. Looks like it might end up more towards the eastern end which is the eastern edge of the forecast cone.
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