ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Kazmit]

I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

Probably wishful thinking

Ida has the appearance but is pretty behind in pressure and winds. Laura also had a longer route to travel because of its turn, Ida is going straight ahead.

I highly doubt it still has a pressure of 985. By the time recon gets there next, I’m guessing it finds a C3.

[tolakram]

Larger view (saved loop)

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16_meso1.html

[tarheelprogrammer]

I would say it is approaching a cat 3 now. This went off quick.

[Kohlecane]

Starting to really work together on the Southern component of IDA, interesting to see what they will bring the strength to in the next advisory

[CrazyC83]

I am guessing they will go 85 kt at the intermediate advisory - cautious until Recon arrives.

[Do_For_Love]

Is it doing another RI? Looks amazing compared to 12 hours ago

[cjrciadt]

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 5.6

[Blinhart]

I thought RECON was supposed to be doing 3 hour fixes starting today, why is it that they aren't taking off for a few more hours? We need them out there right now.

[PandaCitrus]

People downplaying this storm are really skating on really thin ice. The gulf can ramp up a cat 1 storm to cat 4 in 4 to 6 hours. We've seen it with Michael and Charley. This storm has 24-36 hours in the highest oceanic heat content in the world, higher oceanic heat content than Katrina had in 2005.

[Janie2006]

Relatively speaking, Orange Beach is a cakewalk compared to what’s about to happen off to the west, should the current track hold.

On the other hand, all it takes is a good wind gust or one of those Speedy Gonzalez tropical tornadoes to ruin your whole day.

[StAuggy]

Low-res microwave pass from three hours ago. I can see what could’ve been the moat-like features Andy tweeted about, but it’s possible the band around the eyewall is melding into the eyewall. I can also see signs of it on visible/IR imagery.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al09/amsusr89/2021al09_amsusr89_202108281229.gif
Also, the microwave eye is way larger than the clear spot on visible/IR imagery. We’ll probably see that feature briefly cloud over as the wider eye opens up and the nearby band melds into the main eyewall.

If I’m remembering correctly from past recent major storms that exhibited eyewall melding behavior did not end up going through ERC cycles and instead choose to continually meld. Maybe Ida is dropping hints of what’s to come?

Can anyone verify if a hurricane has exhibited both melding behavior and ERC behavior… especially in a 24-36 hr timeframe

[chaser1]

Sandwich
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.sandwich.20210828.162524-overmap-bars.gif
Cirrus (NIR)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.04.20210828.162724-overmap-bars.gif
Very beautiful to watch this on a loop with 200 frames coming together quite nice

This is what I'm talking about...imagine this traversing an area of very high OHC (which it would in a few hours) and lower VWS...

In my amateur opinion a Cat5 is not yet off the table.

Agreed, not "off the table" but the time on the clock makes that prospect less likely. Now, if I were pushed to guess Ida landfalling as a Cat 1 or Cat 5, I'd have to go with a Cat 5 but i'm doubtful either scenario will occur. A well developed sizable storm with sustained 140mph is PLENTY scary enough. As I see it, what's most crucial will be the exact point of landfall and speed of forward motion. Timing of high tides will be a factor especially for those further inland areas and points east of where Ida will make landfall.

[kevin]

Purely from a meteorological perspective Ida looks gorgeous right now. For everyone in her path the situation of course only becomes uglier so to say. This is definitely at least a cat 2 right now and I think there's a chance Ida might be a low-end cat 3 by the time recon arrives.

[KWT]

I am guessing they will go 85 kt at the intermediate advisory - cautious until Recon arrives.

Yeah I'd imagine they will go for something like that, its clearly gotten much better in terms of its presentation, though I wonder whether or not the winds will be lower than perhaps the presentation would suggest given the deep convection is somewhat limited on its northern flank.

[MGC]

Sat pict of Ida looks like Camille with the eye and moats....plus, recon had maint issues just like in Camille. Lets hope Ida fails to deliver...but just looking at the sat loop it looks to be organizing rapidly right now.....MGC

[Kohlecane]

Mention of Dry air getting mixed in and thus inhibiting it a bit - Dr Greg P. TWC

[ThetaE]

I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

Probably wishful thinking

Ida has the appearance but is pretty behind in pressure and winds. Laura also had a longer route to travel because of its turn, Ida is going straight ahead.

It's true that Laura had a longer route, but it also had a faster travel speed! Both spent/will spend ~2 days in the Gulf. I honestly think the two storms are fairly comparable in terms of RI potential.

Ida is behind on winds/pressure with respect to what, exactly? There have been plenty of posts here (by myself and many others) on how Ida has been keeping pace with model and NHC forecasts. If you mean in comparison to Laura, keep in mind that storm wasn't a hurricane until ~9 hours after leaving Cuba. After that, Laura had some dry air entrainment problems and basically RIed from 70 kt to 130 kt in the last 36 hours before landfall.

I honestly forgot all about the dry air entertainment problems, and had to go back and read some old NHC discussions! I think sometimes it's easy for us to forget how fickle and sudden these RI events can be, and how many road bumps past storms faced even if they end up being quite strong.

Here's a good discussion from Laura:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al13/al132020.discus.024.shtml?

[Teban54]

That newly established outflow channel to its west is gorgeous and a huge change from even just a few hours ago.

[Hurrilurker]

Seems like no matter what happens with wobbles/shifts, everywhere from Lafayette to New Orleans is going to get pounded pretty good.

[hohnywx]

Mention of Dry air getting mixed in and thus inhibiting it a bit - Dr Greg P. TWC
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/COD-GOES-East-regional-gulf.09.20210828.164617-overmap-bars.png

Emphasis should be on a bit...it's clearly strengthening.