ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2141 Postby Kazmit » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:40 am

skyline385 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

Probably wishful thinking


Ida has the appearance but is pretty behind in pressure and winds. Laura also had a longer route to travel because of its turn, Ida is going straight ahead.

I highly doubt it still has a pressure of 985. By the time recon gets there next, I’m guessing it finds a C3.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2142 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:40 am

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2143 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:42 am

I would say it is approaching a cat 3 now. This went off quick.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2144 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:44 am

Starting to really work together on the Southern component of IDA, interesting to see what they will bring the strength to in the next advisory
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2145 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:45 am

I am guessing they will go 85 kt at the intermediate advisory - cautious until Recon arrives.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2146 Postby Do_For_Love » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:47 am

Is it doing another RI? Looks amazing compared to 12 hours ago
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2147 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:48 am

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 5.6
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2148 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:48 am

I thought RECON was supposed to be doing 3 hour fixes starting today, why is it that they aren't taking off for a few more hours? We need them out there right now.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2149 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:49 am

People downplaying this storm are really skating on really thin ice. The gulf can ramp up a cat 1 storm to cat 4 in 4 to 6 hours. We've seen it with Michael and Charley. This storm has 24-36 hours in the highest oceanic heat content in the world, higher oceanic heat content than Katrina had in 2005.
Last edited by PandaCitrus on Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:50 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2150 Postby Janie2006 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:49 am

Relatively speaking, Orange Beach is a cakewalk compared to what’s about to happen off to the west, should the current track hold.

On the other hand, all it takes is a good wind gust or one of those Speedy Gonzalez tropical tornadoes to ruin your whole day.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2151 Postby StAuggy » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:50 am

aspen wrote:Low-res microwave pass from three hours ago. I can see what could’ve been the moat-like features Andy tweeted about, but it’s possible the band around the eyewall is melding into the eyewall. I can also see signs of it on visible/IR imagery.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al09/amsusr89/2021al09_amsusr89_202108281229.gif
Also, the microwave eye is way larger than the clear spot on visible/IR imagery. We’ll probably see that feature briefly cloud over as the wider eye opens up and the nearby band melds into the main eyewall.


If I’m remembering correctly from past recent major storms that exhibited eyewall melding behavior did not end up going through ERC cycles and instead choose to continually meld. Maybe Ida is dropping hints of what’s to come?

Can anyone verify if a hurricane has exhibited both melding behavior and ERC behavior… especially in a 24-36 hr timeframe
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2152 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:52 am

dexterlabio wrote:


This is what I'm talking about...imagine this traversing an area of very high OHC (which it would in a few hours) and lower VWS...

In my amateur opinion a Cat5 is not yet off the table.


Agreed, not "off the table" but the time on the clock makes that prospect less likely. Now, if I were pushed to guess Ida landfalling as a Cat 1 or Cat 5, I'd have to go with a Cat 5 but i'm doubtful either scenario will occur. A well developed sizable storm with sustained 140mph is PLENTY scary enough. As I see it, what's most crucial will be the exact point of landfall and speed of forward motion. Timing of high tides will be a factor especially for those further inland areas and points east of where Ida will make landfall.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2153 Postby kevin » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:54 am

Purely from a meteorological perspective Ida looks gorgeous right now. For everyone in her path the situation of course only becomes uglier so to say. This is definitely at least a cat 2 right now and I think there's a chance Ida might be a low-end cat 3 by the time recon arrives.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2154 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:54 am

CrazyC83 wrote:I am guessing they will go 85 kt at the intermediate advisory - cautious until Recon arrives.


Yeah I'd imagine they will go for something like that, its clearly gotten much better in terms of its presentation, though I wonder whether or not the winds will be lower than perhaps the presentation would suggest given the deep convection is somewhat limited on its northern flank.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2155 Postby MGC » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:55 am

Sat pict of Ida looks like Camille with the eye and moats....plus, recon had maint issues just like in Camille. Lets hope Ida fails to deliver...but just looking at the sat loop it looks to be organizing rapidly right now.....MGC
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2156 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:56 am

Mention of Dry air getting mixed in and thus inhibiting it a bit - Dr Greg P. TWC
Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2157 Postby ThetaE » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:57 am

skyline385 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:I don't get why some people think the ceiling for Ida is Laura-strength. Laura got its act together near landfall, Ida has already got that mean appearance at a farther distance from land.

Probably wishful thinking


Ida has the appearance but is pretty behind in pressure and winds. Laura also had a longer route to travel because of its turn, Ida is going straight ahead.


It's true that Laura had a longer route, but it also had a faster travel speed! Both spent/will spend ~2 days in the Gulf. I honestly think the two storms are fairly comparable in terms of RI potential.

Ida is behind on winds/pressure with respect to what, exactly? There have been plenty of posts here (by myself and many others) on how Ida has been keeping pace with model and NHC forecasts. If you mean in comparison to Laura, keep in mind that storm wasn't a hurricane until ~9 hours after leaving Cuba. After that, Laura had some dry air entrainment problems and basically RIed from 70 kt to 130 kt in the last 36 hours before landfall.

I honestly forgot all about the dry air entertainment problems, and had to go back and read some old NHC discussions! I think sometimes it's easy for us to forget how fickle and sudden these RI events can be, and how many road bumps past storms faced even if they end up being quite strong.

Here's a good discussion from Laura:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al13/al132020.discus.024.shtml?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2158 Postby Teban54 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:57 am

That newly established outflow channel to its west is gorgeous and a huge change from even just a few hours ago.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2159 Postby Hurrilurker » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:58 am

Seems like no matter what happens with wobbles/shifts, everywhere from Lafayette to New Orleans is going to get pounded pretty good.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2160 Postby hohnywx » Sat Aug 28, 2021 11:59 am

Kohlecane wrote:Mention of Dry air getting mixed in and thus inhibiting it a bit - Dr Greg P. TWC
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/COD-GOES-East-regional-gulf.09.20210828.164617-overmap-bars.png


Emphasis should be on a bit...it's clearly strengthening.
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