ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2781 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:12 pm

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2782 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:13 pm

Dropsonde has 113 knots not too far above the surface. Although these are probably gusts, it is indicative that Ida is a solid (and strengthening) Category 2 hurricane.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2783 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:13 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
StormPyrate wrote:I thought they had reported eye closed earlier

Last VDM came through said "open to the south"


Incorrect.

Code: Select all

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 10kts (From the SE at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)

no, the one previous to that. i should have clarified that
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2784 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:14 pm

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2785 Postby Smurfwicked » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:15 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:Wind field starting to symmetrize

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/09L-2DWIND.GIF


I'm new to this graphic. I'm assuming the numbers in the bottom left are the distance in miles from center? Also red is peak or max winds? Green is hurricane+ winds? Blue TS+ winds?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2786 Postby catskillfire51 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:17 pm



Does the track seem like it missed the eye or is that just a plotting error?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2787 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:18 pm

Highteeld wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Last VDM came through said "open to the south"


Incorrect.

Code: Select all

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 10kts (From the SE at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)


no, the one previous to that. i should have clarified that


I understand. Sorry for the mixup.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2788 Postby weunice » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:18 pm

Smurfwicked wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:Wind field starting to symmetrize

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/09L-2DWIND.GIF


I'm new to this graphic. I'm assuming the numbers in the bottom left are the distance in miles from center? Also red is peak or max winds? Green is hurricane+ winds? Blue TS+ winds?
Red is hurricane, green is "50 kts" which is the severe thunderstorm threshold (think, takes down trees) and blue is TS force winds.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2789 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:19 pm

RAP forecast at landfall tomorrow afternoon.
No convective inhibition but moving into drier mid-level air.
Not too sure this will be intensifying at landfall.

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2790 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:19 pm

Really coming together on IR now. Still on track to cat4 in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2791 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:21 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Really coming together on IR now. Still on track to cat4 in my opinion.



Agreed. Ill even forecast a Cat- 5 . My personal forecast....the waters support it.

We will wake to a nightmare

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Last edited by SEASON_CANCELED on Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2792 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:21 pm

Really digging that hot tower in the northern eyewall
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2793 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:22 pm

Kermit ascending probably headed home. Next Flight AF take off a little after 1am central time.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2794 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:23 pm

Latest fix is just slightly south of track

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2795 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:25 pm

Also noteworthy that high tide will be in 10 hours

We dont have that going for us. thats an extra 2 feet
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2796 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:25 pm

Stupid Godfather reference is stupid

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2797 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:26 pm

My guess for Ida’s intensity when I wake up at like 6 tomorrow morning: 954-958mb and 95-100 kt.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2798 Postby catskillfire51 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:26 pm

GCANE wrote:Latest fix is just slightly south of track

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/HxzRpLhp/99L1.png [/url]


I asked Tolakram but it looks the track was south of the eye, do you think that could be a reason why or is it just a plotting error on the chart?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2799 Postby Nate-Gillson » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:27 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Kermit ascending probably headed home. Next Flight AF take off a little after 1am central time.


Hopefully they won't have any troubles this time unless it's a different plane. Anticipating waking up to a borderline cat 3 unless Ida pulls a fast one.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2800 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:29 pm

Nate-Gillson wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Kermit ascending probably headed home. Next Flight AF take off a little after 1am central time.


Hopefully they won't have any troubles this time unless it's a different plane. Anticipating waking up to a borderline cat 3.



So will be 6 hours before we get another plane inside the storm. With a powerful hurricane gaining strength, this close to the coast. Just wonderful.
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