ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2881 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:16 pm

TallyTracker wrote:


:eek: NHC might upgrade to 100 kts with that presentation…

Maybe they will wait for aircraft confirmation like usual.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2882 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:16 pm

TallyTracker wrote:


:eek: NHC might upgrade to 100 kts with that presentation…


Dvorak Technique would agree
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2883 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:16 pm

Blinhart wrote:
cycloneye wrote:For those who are asking when is the next mission, AF plane departs at 2:15 AM EDT.

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 29/0830Z,1130Z,1430Z
B. AFXXX 1209A IDA
C. 29/0615Z
D. 27.2N 89.2W
E. 29/0800Z TO 29/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


What happened to the 3 hour fixes???


Air Force recon aircraft that was scheduled to do center fixes at 6:30pm, 9:30pm and 12:30am CDT returned to Texas before reaching storm. Not sure why. Unless another aircraft departs unscheduled, which would be very rare, unfortunately next center fix is scheduled for 3:30am CDT
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2884 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:16 pm

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2885 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:17 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Its a valid concern and totally on topic. The airforce is cannibalizing spare parts for most of its aircraft except the F-35 and F-22 because they do not know how to make the parts anymore.

Ominous for our future. You can google the topic, its very alarming. The skill to make these things has retired or the plants went oversea's. Hurricane hunters are not new aircraft.


C-130s are still produced right here in the USA, and the WC-130Js joined the fleet in 2005. These aren't relics of the 1960s...

Other than our desire to stay up all night tracking, does it really matter if there is a 6 hour gap at this point? Anyone who was going to evac has already made that decision before going to bed tonight. Tomorrow is too late to do anything.


Actually yes it matters, any indication that this can come further West will have dire consequences.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2886 Postby catskillfire51 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:19 pm

Blinhart wrote:
dukeblue219 wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Its a valid concern and totally on topic. The airforce is cannibalizing spare parts for most of its aircraft except the F-35 and F-22 because they do not know how to make the parts anymore.

Ominous for our future. You can google the topic, its very alarming. The skill to make these things has retired or the plants went oversea's. Hurricane hunters are not new aircraft.


C-130s are still produced right here in the USA, and the WC-130Js joined the fleet in 2005. These aren't relics of the 1960s...

Other than our desire to stay up all night tracking, does it really matter if there is a 6 hour gap at this point? Anyone who was going to evac has already made that decision before going to bed tonight. Tomorrow is too late to do anything.


Actually yes it matters, any indication that this can come further West will have dire consequences.


At this point you should be able to follow the eye vs the forecasted track to know that.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2887 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:20 pm

 http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1431794739490312194


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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2888 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:20 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
TallyTracker wrote:


:eek: NHC might upgrade to 100 kts with that presentation…


Dvorak Technique would agree


I would go with 100 Kts / 115mph for the 11PM update.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2889 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:22 pm

I have the center at 27.1N 88.0W - it seems to have moved left a bit this evening. I'd go with 95 kt for the intensity (pressure 958 mb) at the advisory while we wait for Recon.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2890 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
TallyTracker wrote:
:eek: NHC might upgrade to 100 kts with that presentation…


Dvorak Technique would agree


I would go with 100 Kts / 115mph for the 11PM update.



Yeah i think Dvorak technique would justify that right now...maybe even higher because each pass the storm looks better and better.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2891 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:23 pm

I have seen a *lot* of hurricanes at 120mph that don’t look this good. Every time I’ve seen one that looks like this it’s a Cat 4.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2892 Postby GCANE » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:23 pm

Radar and Satellite Composite

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2893 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:24 pm

Wow, I truly think New Orleans may have to brace for a painful and ugly few days ahead. The last thing we need is a Cat 4 direct landfall on that city, that would be horrific.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2894 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:24 pm

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2895 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:25 pm

00z ADT and subjective dovrak are both at T5.5 - 100kts seems justified

TXNT25 KNES 290035
TCSNTL

A. 09L (IDA)

B. 28/2331Z

C. 26.7N

D. 87.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 5.0. FOR
AN OW EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY B, THE EADJ IS +0.5. THIS RESULTS IN A
DT OF 5.5. THE MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE AS 09L (IDA) WAS OVERLAND 24
HOURS AGO. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2896 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:25 pm



The afternoon wobble seems to be correcting itself.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2897 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:27 pm

A Major Hurricane Landfall while peaking with the worst of the Storm Surge into New Orleans is the last thing I want to hear! :eek: :(
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2898 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:27 pm

Ida seems to be booking it now. With that speed, it could make landfall in just 12-15 hours from now.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2899 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:28 pm

Impressive looking system.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=07&length=24
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2900 Postby StormTracker89 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:28 pm

Raw ADT 5.8, no constraints.

supercane4867 wrote:00z ADT and subjective dovrak are both at T5.5 - 100kts seems justified

TXNT25 KNES 290035
TCSNTL

A. 09L (IDA)

B. 28/2331Z

C. 26.7N

D. 87.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 5.0. FOR
AN OW EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY B, THE EADJ IS +0.5. THIS RESULTS IN A
DT OF 5.5. THE MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE AS 09L (IDA) WAS OVERLAND 24
HOURS AGO. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY
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