ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
I've been watching Ida for most of today and at some point I will admit I believed she was falling behind schedule in intensity and that maybe she wouldn't reach C4 as forecast. Foolish I know. Mentally eating the biggest of crows at the moment.
Never doubt our top-notch forecasters. Awful situation evolving before our eyes.
Never doubt our top-notch forecasters. Awful situation evolving before our eyes.
Last edited by Landy on Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
TXNT25 KNES 290632
TCSNTL
A. 09L (IDA)
B. 29/0531Z
C. 27.5N
D. 88.7W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T5.5/5.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 5.0. FOR AN
EYE THAT IS OW AND SURROUNDED BY B, THE EADJ IS +0.5, RESULTING IN A DT
OF 5.5. THE MET IS 6.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 6.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY
TCSNTL
A. 09L (IDA)
B. 29/0531Z
C. 27.5N
D. 88.7W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T5.5/5.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 5.0. FOR AN
EYE THAT IS OW AND SURROUNDED BY B, THE EADJ IS +0.5, RESULTING IN A DT
OF 5.5. THE MET IS 6.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 6.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY
SAB what.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- SEASON_CANCELED
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.
As they do around here..forecasts are a dime a dozen and usually wrong
Last edited by SEASON_CANCELED on Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
Each new frame the storm looks increasingly violent
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.
I wouldn't say so. Just 5-6 hours ago Ida was trending significantly lower then where she was forecast to be intensity wise.
Things can change rapidly in the tropics.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
I forgot who said it, but someone said not to turn your back on Ida. What’s going on tonight is beyond astounding… 

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
Highteeld wrote:Each new frame the storm looks increasingly violent
.....And, awfully close to land!
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
Impressive subsidence signature in the eye dropsonde.


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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
Explosive lightning now occurring within the eyewall, expect multiple hot towers to start forming with the significant updrafts developing (for the science behind lightning in tropical systems, see my post here):


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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
PavelGaborik wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.
I wouldn't say so. Just 5-6 hours ago Ida was trending significantly lower then where she was forecast to be intensity wise.
Things can change rapidly in the tropics.
All the people saying this wouldn’t be a Cat 4 and would just barely make a major. Those definitely didn’t age well.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
PavelGaborik wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.
I wouldn't say so. Just 5-6 hours ago Ida was trending significantly lower then where she was forecast to be intensity wise.
Things can change rapidly in the tropics.
You don’t think that comments suggesting a peak as a low cat3 or comparisons to gustav are inaccurate at this point?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
KimmieLa wrote:Highteeld wrote:Each new frame the storm looks increasingly violent
.....And, awfully close to land!
Unfortunately not close enough. She will still have a solid 12+ hours over water.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
Drop supports 950 so not as low as extrap
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.
I miss the good ole days.
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Baton Rouge area cyclone dilettante, PSWAGGER* tropical weather & hydrology model developer
(* Pseudo-Scientific Wild-A** Guesses Generally Expressed Ridiculously)
The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.
(* Pseudo-Scientific Wild-A** Guesses Generally Expressed Ridiculously)
The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.
Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...MAJOR HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars indicate that Hurricane Ida has continued to
rapidly intensify this Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are
now estimated to be 130 mph (215 km/h). This makes Ida a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...MAJOR HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars indicate that Hurricane Ida has continued to
rapidly intensify this Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are
now estimated to be 130 mph (215 km/h). This makes Ida a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Ida's central pressure has fallen 6 millibars during the past hour.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Texashawk
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
I see Stacy Stewart is manning the desk this morning. That kind of raises an eyebrow.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
This convection bubbling around the eye reminds me of Michael.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion
Still plenty of time to intensify further.
My guess: 155-160mph landfall.
My guess: 155-160mph landfall.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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