ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3321 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:41 am

A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3322 Postby Landy » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am

I've been watching Ida for most of today and at some point I will admit I believed she was falling behind schedule in intensity and that maybe she wouldn't reach C4 as forecast. Foolish I know. Mentally eating the biggest of crows at the moment.

Never doubt our top-notch forecasters. Awful situation evolving before our eyes.
Last edited by Landy on Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3323 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am

TXNT25 KNES 290632
TCSNTL

A. 09L (IDA)

B. 29/0531Z

C. 27.5N

D. 88.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN LG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF 5.0. FOR AN
EYE THAT IS OW AND SURROUNDED BY B, THE EADJ IS +0.5, RESULTING IN A DT
OF 5.5. THE MET IS 6.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 6.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY


SAB what.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3324 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.


As they do around here..forecasts are a dime a dozen and usually wrong
Last edited by SEASON_CANCELED on Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3325 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:42 am

Each new frame the storm looks increasingly violent
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3326 Postby PavelGaborik » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:43 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.


I wouldn't say so. Just 5-6 hours ago Ida was trending significantly lower then where she was forecast to be intensity wise.

Things can change rapidly in the tropics.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3327 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:44 am

I forgot who said it, but someone said not to turn your back on Ida. What’s going on tonight is beyond astounding… :eek:
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3328 Postby KimmieLa » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:44 am

Highteeld wrote:Each new frame the storm looks increasingly violent



.....And, awfully close to land!
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3329 Postby Highteeld » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:44 am

Impressive subsidence signature in the eye dropsonde.

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3330 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:45 am

Explosive lightning now occurring within the eyewall, expect multiple hot towers to start forming with the significant updrafts developing (for the science behind lightning in tropical systems, see my post here):

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3331 Postby wx98 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:45 am

PavelGaborik wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.


I wouldn't say so. Just 5-6 hours ago Ida was trending significantly lower then where she was forecast to be intensity wise.

Things can change rapidly in the tropics.


All the people saying this wouldn’t be a Cat 4 and would just barely make a major. Those definitely didn’t age well.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3332 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:46 am

PavelGaborik wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.


I wouldn't say so. Just 5-6 hours ago Ida was trending significantly lower then where she was forecast to be intensity wise.

Things can change rapidly in the tropics.

You don’t think that comments suggesting a peak as a low cat3 or comparisons to gustav are inaccurate at this point?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3333 Postby PavelGaborik » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:46 am

KimmieLa wrote:
Highteeld wrote:Each new frame the storm looks increasingly violent



.....And, awfully close to land!


Unfortunately not close enough. She will still have a solid 12+ hours over water.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3334 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:46 am

Drop supports 950 so not as low as extrap
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3335 Postby caneseddy » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:48 am

Officially Cat 4..130 mph..949 mb
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3336 Postby LARanger » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:48 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:A lot of comments made about 10 hours ago have now aged like milk.


I miss the good ole days.
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The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3337 Postby Airboy » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:48 am

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...MAJOR HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars indicate that Hurricane Ida has continued to
rapidly intensify this Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are
now estimated to be 130 mph (215 km/h). This makes Ida a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.


Ida's central pressure has fallen 6 millibars during the past hour.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3338 Postby Texashawk » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:51 am

I see Stacy Stewart is manning the desk this morning. That kind of raises an eyebrow.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3339 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:51 am

This convection bubbling around the eye reminds me of Michael.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3340 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:51 am

Still plenty of time to intensify further.

My guess: 155-160mph landfall.
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