ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3681 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:44 am

Stangfriik wrote:I just woke up to far too many pages to look through but have there been any streams posted from chasers or cameras?


We have two threads for observations and web cams

IDA: Web Cams http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=122169

IDA: Local Obs, Evacs, Info http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=122168
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3682 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:44 am

Stangfriik wrote:I just woke up to far too many pages to look through but have there been any streams posted from chasers or cameras?


Not that I've seen here in the discussion thread. But maybe check Mark Sudduth / Hurricane Track on Youtube
https://youtu.be/QcX_PGEZKzU

Edit: better link
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxxWE4 ... 5QGT7S-jyA
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3683 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:46 am

abajan wrote:My best guess is it'll reach Cat 5 then weaken to Cat 4 as it goes through an ERC before landfall.


No signs of an EWRC and storm is about 5-6 hours from
a landfall. All indicators suggest strengthening till impact.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3684 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:46 am

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3685 Postby Teban54 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:47 am

SecondBreakfast wrote:


Was just coming here to post this to ask about it. Didn’t Michael RI at the end in the panhandle? Or it doesn’t qualify for this plot?

Unreal to think I watched Katrina’s progress on TWC in my college dorm knowing how bad it was going to be, and now watching something worse unfold.

Michael made landfall on October 10 at 1730z with a pressure of 919 mb; roughly 24 hours earlier, at 1800z on October 9, its pressure was 961 mb. So the 42 mb pressure drop, while certainly impressive, falls just short of the threshold on the chart.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3686 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:48 am

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3687 Postby GCANE » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:48 am

Eyewall is 150 knt winds on this one
I would call it a Cat 5

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3688 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:48 am

6:21am CDT from NOAA sonde: 934mb with 9 knots of surface wind.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3689 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:49 am

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3690 Postby Jr0d » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:49 am

The oil platform(KMDJ) that's now in the NW eyewall is reporting 78kt winds with gusts to 101kts.


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kmdj
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3691 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:49 am

AlabamaDave wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:Honestly just unreal what’s unfolding. If you asked an expert what they thought a bad hurricane scenario looked like for Nola, theyd probably say a storm that develelops too quickly for sufficient fear and mandatory evacuation, that blows up to a cat 5 near landfall. I am sure there are many non evacuees that went to be hedging cat 2-3 further west. The “improvements” after katrina to the levee system are about to be seriously tested.

Checked models this morning and not only has Ida continued tk hug right, gfs, and hwrf etc all have shifted well right, landfalling Grand isle and basically following something a path over west metro(LA place, gonzales, Hammond, i-55 and up toward McComb. ) so they are a bit east of NHC now i think…but I’m squinty eyed pre coffee


The center tracking from Grand Isle to LaPlace would surely put a large chunk of the New Orleans metro in horrendous conditions, especially Jefferson Parish (population of 440,000, higher than the city of New Orleans).


From trends I’m seeing on models and radar, I’d be amazed if parts of New Orleans proper didn’t see some outer eye wall. It’s only like less 30 miles to La place and if it tracks over there, or even Gonzalez, with its 20 some odd mile eye, it would pressed not to put the city in the 40 mil hurricane force radius. I’m also assuming that the hurricane radius will expand a bit more.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3692 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:50 am

I went to sleep with it just being Cat 4, now it's almost a Cat 5 yikes. And that Satellite presentation is just scary...
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3693 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:51 am

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3694 Postby Beef Stew » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:52 am

Speechless this morning. Not necessarily surprised- but still hard to believe what’s unfolding nonetheless. This is like watching Michael play out all over again. Godspeed to those in Ida’s path.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3695 Postby imetrice » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:52 am

:double: I'm really afraid for anyone in the path of Ida. The worst part is, I don't think she's done strengthening. Really hoping she does that last minute downgrade thing that hurricanes sometimes do just before landfall.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3696 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:53 am

Dropsonde of 934 mb/9 kt. Could be entering the 920s soon.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3697 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:53 am

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3698 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:53 am

saved loop
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3699 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:55 am

morning loop

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3700 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:55 am

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