AlabamaDave wrote:PTPatrick wrote:Honestly just unreal what’s unfolding. If you asked an expert what they thought a bad hurricane scenario looked like for Nola, theyd probably say a storm that develelops too quickly for sufficient fear and mandatory evacuation, that blows up to a cat 5 near landfall. I am sure there are many non evacuees that went to be hedging cat 2-3 further west. The “improvements” after katrina to the levee system are about to be seriously tested.
Checked models this morning and not only has Ida continued tk hug right, gfs, and hwrf etc all have shifted well right, landfalling Grand isle and basically following something a path over west metro(LA place, gonzales, Hammond, i-55 and up toward McComb. ) so they are a bit east of NHC now i think…but I’m squinty eyed pre coffee
The center tracking from Grand Isle to LaPlace would surely put a large chunk of the New Orleans metro in horrendous conditions, especially Jefferson Parish (population of 440,000, higher than the city of New Orleans).
From trends I’m seeing on models and radar, I’d be amazed if parts of New Orleans proper didn’t see some outer eye wall. It’s only like less 30 miles to La place and if it tracks over there, or even Gonzalez, with its 20 some odd mile eye, it would pressed not to put the city in the 40 mil hurricane force radius. I’m also assuming that the hurricane radius will expand a bit more.