2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

There is a tropical wave that’ll emerge off of Africa on Sunday or early Monday. While no operational model develops it, some ensemble members do, and we should probably keep an eye on it as the MJO enters Phase 4. The GFS is stuck showing a sinking branch over Africa so it won’t show anything in the Atlantic within the next 10-12 days (besides Larry) until that error is corrected.

[SFLcane]

Suppressed state is coming the MJO isn't weak EOF based RMMS might suggest that. This is a blend between GFS/statistical.

[AlphaToOmega]

Suppressed state is coming the MJO isn't weak EOF based RMMS might suggest that. This is a blend between GFS/statistical.

https://i.postimg.cc/TwSbTWdx/1-ACEC7-A8-4439-420-C-8-BE6-31-F796-A88033.jpg

I would not give it too much weight. The GFS has always wanted to kill the WAM.

[SFLcane]

Suppressed state is coming the MJO isn't weak EOF based RMMS might suggest that. This is a blend between GFS/statistical.

https://i.postimg.cc/TwSbTWdx/1-ACEC7-A8-4439-420-C-8-BE6-31-F796-A88033.jpg

I would not give it too much weight. The GFS has always wanted to kill the WAM.

I think the reason not much is developing right behind Larry is the big PV streamer its outflow pinches off. Some differences between GEFS and EPS on how favorable the Atlantic will be.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Some ensemble support for a west-gulf storm ~D5-D9.

[Steve]

MJO looks to be making a run for 4/5 which would coincide with the discussion from a week ago as to whether or not we might have a week to 10 days break in early September. Doesn’t mean there can’t be any activity. But we aren’t likely to see a burst of 4 or 5 systems right away. Caution is the unfiltered output does show phase 3 until next weekend. Storms are firing in the Indian Ocean so it’s not going to be 100% quiet.

Does Phase 4 mean enhanced or reduced activity? Another post in the indicators thread said Phase 4 would be active, and IIRC some pro mets on Twitter mentioned
Phase 4 has the highest track density in the Atlantic.

No. IV has some landfalls and areas in the Atlantic. 5/6/7 can get sparse. But it’s early September not July. So that matters too

[SFLcane]

You know what’s been the one of the most amazing things so far this season is not seeing the gfs nail SFL with a major hurricane at longer ranges. Hopefully this is not a bad thing.

[AutoPenalti]

You know what’s been the one of the most amazing things so far this season is not seeing the gfs nail SFL with a major hurricane at longer ranges. Hopefully this is not a bad thing.

I think the only one that did was the HWRF.

[SFLcane]

This is the brightest I have seen Florida all season. Even some Caribbean action.

Id like to see that on the GEFS

[Category5Kaiju]

This is the brightest I have seen Florida all season. Even some Caribbean action.

Id like to see that on the GEFS


https://i.postimg.cc/k5N2vrc0/750743-E5-2533-4731-AC46-889-EAA228-E1-F.gif

The Carolinas: sad noises

[AutoPenalti]

This is the brightest I have seen Florida all season. Even some Caribbean action.

Id like to see that on the GEFS


https://i.postimg.cc/k5N2vrc0/750743-E5-2533-4731-AC46-889-EAA228-E1-F.gif

Carolinas punching the air right now.

[lsuhurricane]

A bit concerned about NW GOM mid-next week development after reviewing the 12z CMC model solution.

The 18z GFS now develops a closed low at this same time frame which provides a bit of continuity. Unfortunately, their ensembles are also supporting this area as well.

[IcyTundra]

A bit concerned about NW GOM mid-next week development after reviewing the 12z CMC model solution.

The 18z GFS now develops a closed low at this same time frame which provides a bit of continuity. Unfortunately, their ensembles are also supporting this area as well.

Something to keep an eye on for sure. The western gulf is untapped and plently warm to support tropical development.

[johngaltfla]

A bit concerned about NW GOM mid-next week development after reviewing the 12z CMC model solution.

The 18z GFS now develops a closed low at this same time frame which provides a bit of continuity. Unfortunately, their ensembles are also supporting this area as well.

Tis the season so buckle up. We're in for a fascinating ride in September.

[toad strangler]

A bit concerned about NW GOM mid-next week development after reviewing the 12z CMC model solution.

The 18z GFS now develops a closed low at this same time frame which provides a bit of continuity. Unfortunately, their ensembles are also supporting this area as well.

Tis the season so buckle up. We're in for a fascinating ride in September.

And most likely October.

[Category5Kaiju]

From the possible Gulf system to the wave behind Larry, I am not sure if calling for an inactive September is going to pan out well as model support does exist for both possible AOIs. September imho is far from dead.

[cajungal]

Well my area is in complete ruins from Ida. If another one comes then I am moving out of Louisiana and not looking back. Our roof needs to be replaced and ceiling leaking so praying for no more

[gatorcane]

I know the graphic is stretched over Africa but look at that wave



The wave emerges off the coast on Saturday and the GFS tries to develop it as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Given the time of year, bears watching:

[Ptarmigan]

I know the graphic is stretched over Africa but look at that wave

https://i.postimg.cc/Gpxb1vgw/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

The wave emerges off the coast on Saturday and the GFS tries to develop it as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Given the time of year, bears watching:

https://i.postimg.cc/jdc9KZth/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-fh72-252.gif

That is quite a thunderstorm over West Africa.

[IcyTundra]

I know the graphic is stretched over Africa but look at that wave

https://i.postimg.cc/Gpxb1vgw/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

The wave emerges off the coast on Saturday and the GFS tries to develop it as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Given the time of year, bears watching:

https://i.postimg.cc/jdc9KZth/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-fh72-252.gif

I think the GFS actually develops that next wave that comes off of Africa north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola. I could be wrong but that is what it looks like to me.