ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[IcyTundra]

I am surprised the NHC has not mentioned the possibility of this reforming over the Gulf Stream.

NHC is now saying it could form over the Atlantic after it crosses over Florida.

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

I am surprised the NHC has not mentioned the possibility of this reforming over the Gulf Stream.

They do now

[wxman57]

Gulf environment is rather hostile this week. Most likely a weak low moving into the FL Panhandle late Wednesday. Just a rainfall threat.

[AlphaToOmega]

Models indicate that Invest 91L could form over land. This has happened before, so I would not be surprised if it happened again.

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

Model support for Invest 91L is becoming stronger. I think chances will increase in the next TWO.

[underthwx]

Gulf environment is rather hostile this week. Most likely a weak low moving into the FL Panhandle late Wednesday. Just a rainfall threat.

xman....I noticed on satellite imagery of the gulf...an area off the Tx coast...is that the tail end of a frontal boundary?

[Nimbus]

There is a lot of shear especially in the southern BOC.
Some thunderstorms near ~23N ~91W that might persist and give us a surface low.
Outflow boundaries near the tail end of that front probably from dry air nothing organizing very quickly here.

[cycloneye]

This invest has been deactivated for now but this thread will remain open for comments as they can put it up anytime.

[Teban54]

This invest has been deactivated for now but this thread will remain open for comments as they can put it up anytime.

Wait... They deactivated an invest that still has a 30% chance for development in 5 days?

[cycloneye]

ATCF didn't update the invest all day but guess what, as soon I mentioned the desactivation, they counter by updating so the invest is again active.

AL, 91, 2021090700, , BEST, 0, 220N, 924W, 20, 1011, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[xironman]

Actually one of the better mornings it has had. Lots of convection and lightening near the trough axis. Shear is currently less to the north

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the central Atlantic about 850 miles southeast
of Bermuda.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level
disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward
over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next
couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
development, but they are forecast to become marginally conducive
for some limited development as the system nears the northern Gulf
coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The disturbance is then
expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some tropical
or subtropical development will be possible after it emerges off the
southeastern United States coast late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[xironman]

The ship shown to the east of the "L" has a pressure of 29.83 while station 42055 has 29.88 so you would assume it would be closer to the actual low unless it is poorly calibrated. 42055 has switch to westerly winds is a couple of millibars lower than than yesterday, so pressures are lowering.

[Dean4Storms]

I think a weak Tropical Cyclone over the NE Gulf with this is quite possible, we have seen worse conditions than what 91L is facing and systems spin up. It might not ever look pretty in the Gulf but I think anytime you have a tropical low with this much time over very warm Gulf waters and shear not screaming it has a good chance.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1435205015048646666

[Dean4Storms]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1435205015048646666

I don’t see the “screaming shear” where this surface circulation is forming near 23.5N and 93W.