ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#101 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:47 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#102 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:16 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:I am surprised the NHC has not mentioned the possibility of this reforming over the Gulf Stream.


NHC is now saying it could form over the Atlantic after it crosses over Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#103 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:30 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#104 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 06, 2021 10:29 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:I am surprised the NHC has not mentioned the possibility of this reforming over the Gulf Stream.


They do now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#105 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 11:26 am

Gulf environment is rather hostile this week. Most likely a weak low moving into the FL Panhandle late Wednesday. Just a rainfall threat.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#106 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Sep 06, 2021 11:41 am

Models indicate that Invest 91L could form over land. This has happened before, so I would not be surprised if it happened again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#107 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:04 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#108 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:33 pm

Model support for Invest 91L is becoming stronger. I think chances will increase in the next TWO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#109 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:Gulf environment is rather hostile this week. Most likely a weak low moving into the FL Panhandle late Wednesday. Just a rainfall threat.


xman....I noticed on satellite imagery of the gulf...an area off the Tx coast...is that the tail end of a frontal boundary?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#110 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 06, 2021 5:16 pm

There is a lot of shear especially in the southern BOC.
Some thunderstorms near ~23N ~91W that might persist and give us a surface low.
Outflow boundaries near the tail end of that front probably from dry air nothing organizing very quickly here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#111 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:42 pm

This invest has been deactivated for now but this thread will remain open for comments as they can put it up anytime.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#112 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:This invest has been deactivated for now but this thread will remain open for comments as they can put it up anytime.

Wait... They deactivated an invest that still has a 30% chance for development in 5 days?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#113 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:48 pm

ATCF didn't update the invest all day but guess what, as soon I mentioned the desactivation, they counter by updating so the invest is again active. :D

AL, 91, 2021090700, , BEST, 0, 220N, 924W, 20, 1011, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#114 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:55 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#115 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 07, 2021 6:26 am

Actually one of the better mornings it has had. Lots of convection and lightening near the trough axis. Shear is currently less to the north

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#116 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 07, 2021 6:50 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the central Atlantic about 850 miles southeast
of Bermuda.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level
disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward
over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next
couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for
development, but they are forecast to become marginally conducive
for some limited development as the system nears the northern Gulf
coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The disturbance is then
expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some tropical
or subtropical development will be possible after it emerges off the
southeastern United States coast late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#117 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:06 am

The ship shown to the east of the "L" has a pressure of 29.83 while station 42055 has 29.88 so you would assume it would be closer to the actual low unless it is poorly calibrated. 42055 has switch to westerly winds is a couple of millibars lower than than yesterday, so pressures are lowering.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#118 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:53 am

I think a weak Tropical Cyclone over the NE Gulf with this is quite possible, we have seen worse conditions than what 91L is facing and systems spin up. It might not ever look pretty in the Gulf but I think anytime you have a tropical low with this much time over very warm Gulf waters and shear not screaming it has a good chance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#119 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:56 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#120 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:22 am



I don’t see the “screaming shear” where this surface circulation is forming near 23.5N and 93W.
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