2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Monsoonjr99]

I suppose after the streak of 3 years in a row with 7+ named storms in September, people may be a bit spoiled. Not every year has such a large burst of activity in September, including active seasons (e.g. 2012, 2016). It also seems years with active Augusts tend to have not as many storms in September, such as 2012 (the counterexample being 2004). Also remember that 2017 *only* had 4 named storms form in September, and we all know how explosive that month was per hurricanes/majors/ACE.

Right now, the models might not be showing much ... maybe they turn out right or maybe once again they fail to detect imminent genesis ... but we shall wait and see.

p.s. Beware of October & November in a La Nina year like this.

[AlphaToOmega]

I suppose after the streak of 3 years in a row with 7+ named storms in September, people may be a bit spoiled. Not every year has such a large burst of activity in September, including active seasons (e.g. 2012, 2016). It also seems years with active Augusts tend to have not as many storms in September, such as 2012 (the counterexample being 2004). Also remember that 2017 *only* had 4 named storms form in September, and we all know how explosive that month was per hurricanes/majors/ACE.

Right now, the models might not be showing much ... maybe they turn out right or maybe once again they fail to detect imminent genesis ... but we shall wait and see.

p.s. Beware of October & November in a La Nina year like this.

Models are starting to become more bullish with development. Look in the models thread
EDIT: I think I figured out why models were initially bearish with development: dry air in the Atlantic. Once the SAL is gone, expect crazy development

[SFLcane]

That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

[AutoPenalti]

That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg

Are you serious GFS wtf...

[toad strangler]

That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg

384 hour shear maps

[tolakram]

That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg

384 hour shear forecast from the GFS? We'll see.

[SFLcane]

Euro not as hostile but surely shows protective TUTT east of Florida.

[Category5Kaiju]

That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg

Will the GFS ever realize that we are not entering a warm ENSO phase, let alone an El Niño? That shear pattern is what you would see in El Niño years, not La Nina. Oh yeah and plus it’s 384 hours out, so I’m honestly not going to take it seriously now.

[Category5Kaiju]

That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg

Also, based on that model run for the GFS, it shows no discernible TCs during that timeframe in the EPAC (in fact, Olaf is the only one that forms), so I am honestly unsure if that shear is due to Pacific forcing. Honestly speaking given this to be the case, I am actually unsure where the GFS even thinks that kind of shear could possibly originate.

[kevin]

That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg

Will the GFS ever realize that we are not entering a warm ENSO phase, let alone an El Niño? That shear pattern is what you would see in El Niño years, not La Nina. Oh yeah and plus it’s 384 hours out, so I’m honestly not going to take it seriously now.

Yeah, making a shear map 24 hours in advance is already difficult enough, 384 hours is usually just an interesting model fantasy. That being said, this GFS output is truly weird.

[aspen]

Hopefully one of those upcoming waves becomes a long-tracking OTS major that doesn’t attempt ten billion EWRCs like Larry. It probably would’ve been a ~40 ACE Cat 4 if it wasn’t constantly growing larger and limiting itself as a result. Larry will probably max out at 27-30 ACE — quite a lot, but it could’ve been more. Another Larry-like storm will be enough on its own to get 2021 to the 1981-2010 average total season ACE.

[Iceresistance]

That’s 50kt windshear blowing through the Caribbean. Guess it's showing Pacific forcing

https://i.postimg.cc/vBp4DZRR/55-B9-BF43-293-C-439-E-B1-FB-A48-FB2-B2-A7-B2.jpg

I'm thinking that the GFS wants to end Hurricane Season already . . .

[SFLcane]

Interesting how once again this year the climatological peak of the season is not when the worst U.S. impacts are happening.

[aspen]

Climo Peak Day 2021 might be the most lackluster since 2019, with only Larry being active; I doubt 91L will develop. 2017 had Irma and Jose; 2018 had the trio of Florence, Helene, and Isaac; 2019 only had a dissipating Gabrielle; and 2020 had Paulette and Rene. However, the winner for the most lackluster Climo Peak Day is 2016, with ZERO active storms except for the invest that would become Ian.

2016 would suddenly become extremely active with Matthew and Nicole in October, 2017 would go on to produce two more long-duration majors in September (Lee and Maria), 2018 was in the middle of an active phase, 2019 would pick up steam a few days later, and 2020 was a few days into its bonkers mid-September TC spam. 2021 might be like 2016 and 2019 (and to a lesser extent 2020), where peak season day is before the actual peak of the specific season.

[Category5Kaiju]

Climo Peak Day 2021 might be the most lackluster since 2019, with only Larry being active; I doubt 91L will develop. 2017 had Irma and Jose; 2018 had the trio of Florence, Helene, and Isaac; 2019 only had a dissipating Gabrielle; and 2020 had Paulette and Rene. However, the winner for the most lackluster Climo Peak Day is 2016, with ZERO active storms except for the invest that would become Ian.

2016 would suddenly become extremely active with Matthew and Nicole in October, 2017 would go on to produce two more long-duration majors in September (Lee and Maria), 2018 was in the middle of an active phase, 2019 would pick up steam a few days later, and 2020 was a few days into its bonkers mid-September TC spam. 2021 might be like 2016 and 2019 (and to a lesser extent 2020), where peak season day is before the actual peak of the specific season.

Actually, I wouldn’t count out 91L just yet as it is still projected to go over the Gulf Stream, and the NHC notes it can still form then. As for seeing a lackluster peak season, I also think that with models showing some possibility of MDR activity later this month, perhaps you are onto something with the September 10 date being earlier than the real peak of this season? Either way, with how this season has been performing so far, I expect it to come into action again sometime this month.

[IcyTundra]

Just wait I am sure we are in for a busy last week of September and all of October. Just because we are in supressed MJO phase right now doesn't mean it will be for the rest of the season. I expect the trend in recent seasons of having an active October to continue.

[Spacecoast]

EDIT: I think I figured out why models were initially bearish with development: dry air in the Atlantic. Once the SAL is gone, expect crazy development

Current:


+3 Days:


Edit: +8 Days ( euro date format)

[AlphaToOmega]

Climo Peak Day 2021 might be the most lackluster since 2019, with only Larry being active; I doubt 91L will develop. 2017 had Irma and Jose; 2018 had the trio of Florence, Helene, and Isaac; 2019 only had a dissipating Gabrielle; and 2020 had Paulette and Rene. However, the winner for the most lackluster Climo Peak Day is 2016, with ZERO active storms except for the invest that would become Ian.

2016 would suddenly become extremely active with Matthew and Nicole in October, 2017 would go on to produce two more long-duration majors in September (Lee and Maria), 2018 was in the middle of an active phase, 2019 would pick up steam a few days later, and 2020 was a few days into its bonkers mid-September TC spam. 2021 might be like 2016 and 2019 (and to a lesser extent 2020), where peak season day is before the actual peak of the specific season.

91L, the wave coming off Africa on September 10-11, and another low in the Caribbean Sea have some potential. September 10 is only an average, but the month of September is almost always the peak of hurricane season.

[AlphaToOmega]

EDIT: I think I figured out why models were initially bearish with development: dry air in the Atlantic. Once the SAL is gone, expect crazy development

Current:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/BgZywBT/ecmd.jpg [/url]

+3 Days:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bHNwhQ2/ecmc.jpg [/url]

+14 Days
[url]https://i.ibb.co/XxDGJT9/ecmb.jpg [/url]

Something strange is going on
Saharan dust outbreaks are typically non-existent during September

[IcyTundra]

Can't remember which season it was but it was either 2010 or 2011 where large Saharan dust outbreaks persisted into the month of September.